There are some people who need to burn their hand on a hot stove before they learn.
Above: My idea for a t-shirt logo.
Many years ago, I wrote about the three kinds of learning. It seems that most people have to put their hand on the hot stove before they figure out that (a) stoves get hot, and (b) hot things can burn you, which hurts. Today, we are seeing this on a national scale, in real-time.
Sadly, it seems that until a lot of people get personally hurt by Trump's economic and political policies, not much will change. As I noted in that earlier posting, not many people can learn indirectly - by seeing someone else burn their hand on a hot stove - and thus realize that putting their own hand on the stove is a bad idea. Fewer still will every advance to projected learning - and postulate that since they know that stoves get hot and hot things burn, putting your hand on a hot stove is a bad idea, even if they never experienced this firsthand or saw it happen to others.
On the run-up to the election, those who were above cave-man mentality were warning of what would happen - that tariffs would tank the economy and that the government would devolve into fascism and oligarchy. Funny thing, I met a fellow who was "concerned" by what Trump was doing ("he is hurting the wrong people!") but barfed up a Fox News Talking Point - that just because historically tariffs have caused economic chaos, doesn't mean it will happen again Economists beg to differ.
Trump and like-minded Republicans pine for the gilded age before the income tax, where a starved national government had few programs, a tiny military, and no foreign entanglements. When we went to war, it was against weak, opportunistic opponents, such as Spain's overseas colonies. Dynastic, generation-spanning wealth was possible for a privileged few, and the rich built white-elephant mansions staffed by dozens of servants. Today, many of those mansions, such as the Biltmore in Asheville, NC, are museums, or like Dungeness on Cumberland Island, lay in ruins.
What changed? The income tax for starters - and the Gifts and Estate tax (called the "death tax" by Republicans). Both taxes have been in the gunsights of the GOP for ages. These taxes made it harder - but not impossible - to accumulate dynastic wealth. It made it harder - but not impossible - for rich people to pass on their estates intact to the next generation. But as I noted in another posting, the simple mathematics of inheritance mean that each generation divides up the wealth more than the previous. When Elon Musk dies, his estate will be divided by spouse(s) and children (11 at the last count) and the wealth inherited will dissipate rather quickly. Now you know why, in Jolly Ole England, the oldest son inherited everything and the other kids got bubkis.
But I digress.
Trump's theory is that we can abolish the income tax entirely and rely instead on a national sales tax (what they call a VAT or Value Added Tax in Europe and the UK) and tariffs. Indeed, tariffs were one of the major sources of income for the fledgling United States government in the 1800s - and helped promote domestic industry in an era where we relied on England for most of our manufactured goods. Being a Republican in the Lincoln era meant you stood for "God, Country, and the Tariff!" A lot has changed since then. Today, Lincoln would likely be a Democrat.
So that's the plan. Abolish all social welfare programs, including Social Security and Medicare. Shrink the military and cut ties with our allies. Shrink the government so much that you could "drown it in a bathtub" as Grover Norquist once quipped. How do I know this? It is what they said they would do. Sell off government lands, including national parks, and use the money to buy cryptocurrency. What could possibly go wrong with that?
Of course, there may be another strategy. Declare tariffs on Monday - after your rich friends have shorted automaker stocks - and then suspend them on Tuesday (after your rich friends went long on the same shares). But crypto cheap and then declare you will start a national crypto fund. OK, so it doesn't always work the way you want it to. But these regular sea-saws of policies do swing markets and it is a great way to manipulate the market.
So that is always a possibility - that "Project 2025" was never a serious proposition, but just a way to create chaos and profit from it. Either scenario is disturbing.
But getting back to our main point, nothing will change until a number of Republicans start to realize that Trump policies are bad for business and thus bad for their pocketbooks. Traditional Republicans - business owners and investors - don't want to see major disruptions in the marketplace, unless, as I noted above, they can profit from them. GM, Ford, and Stellantis don't want to see tariffs one day and then none the next. You can't plan a business when conditions are changing on a day-to-day basis.
The MAGA Republicans - mostly working-class people - haven't seen these policies affect them - yet. We are starting to hear some MAGA-heads becoming alarmed when they lose government contracts or government jobs, or lose business deals due to tariffs (or even the threat thereof). Many are starting to question their support of Trump, but alas, like the Cybertruck owner whose car has been in the shop for 60 of the 90 days they've owned it, they "Still love the truck!"
It will take real pain to get through to these do-do heads. But even then, MAGA-world has a built-in set of excuses. It was all Biden's fault. Obama's fault. Hillary. Bill. Jimmy Carter. Anyone but their infallible orange God!
But it's not a cult and doncuforgetit!
Even today in Germany, there are those who celebrate Hitler's birthday and secretly profess an admiration for a man who destroyed their own country and killed millions of people. There will always be idiots, it seems, and there will always be MAGA-heads, even decades from now, once we emerge from the smoldering wreckage of what once was the US of A.
But that does not mean change won't come. Enough people will turn away from Trumpism once they realize it hurts them, their neighbors, their friends, the country, and the world. It won't take much, either. Trump won with a small majority of those who voted, which makes up less than a third of the population of the United States. The House and Senate are held by the GOP by slim majorities - a few seats one way or the other could change things dramatically.
Even the Supreme Court has its limits - lifetime appointments tend to mellow justices, Clarence Thomas notwithstanding. You can get Amy Barrett to vote to overturn Roe v. Wade as it was a technically challenged decision ("Are abortion laws unconstitutional? Yes, and let me give you a three-trimester outline as to how it should all work!") but getting her to void basic contract law? That's a lot to ask of a former law school dean. "Yea, the government can simply void contracts for work already performed, on a whim - that works!"
So maybe the tide will turn - but not before a lot of people get hurt. And it sounds mean to say this, but no one seems to have much sympathy for the Trump voter who gets his dick caught in the wringer, crying "you were supposed to hurt the other guy, not me!" Maybe he'll learn from his hot stove experience.
Probably not, though. And I don't feel sorry for him, either.