Larry the Complaining Goldfish

They say a goldfish grows to a size proportional to the tank he is living in.   In a similar way, do we increase our discontent to accommodate our environment?   Or put another way, are some people never happy?

Once upon a time there were two goldfish living in a fishbowl, named Larry and Jerry.  Jerry was a pretty happy-go-lucky goldfish with an optimistic view of life.  "Hey Larry!" he'd shout, "what a great fishbowl we have!  I can see out the window of the house!  Oh, and wait, here comes our owner with some fish flakes!  Yea!!! FISH FLAKES!!!"

"You're a fish flake," Larry grumbled, "This fishbowl sucks.  It's too small, and our owner hasn't changed the water in a week.   And those fish flakes are from Wal-Mart and they probably have melamine in them and they taste stale!"

But Jerry wasn't listening.  He was munching on fish flakes and smacking his fish lips and humming to himself.  "What an idiot!" Larry thought to himself, "He can't see the utter vileness and corruption of the world.   Here we are fish, and trapped in a bowl!  What kind of life is that?"

A few weeks later, when their owner was changing the water, Larry and Jerry were poured into a new bowl.  This one was larger and had gravel on the bottom and a small ceramic castle as decoration.   "Wow!  This is neat!" cried Jerry, "Did you see this Larry?  We have our own Castle!"

"Big Freaking deal," Larry replied, "It's probably made in China.  And we still have the same crappy fish flakes to eat."

But Jerry would not be deterred.  The castle had an arch in it, and Jerry could swim through it, doing loop-de-loops all day long.  "Hey Larry!  Look at me!  You should try this!  Whoo-hoo!" Jerry said.  But Larry just shook his head and stared out the side of the tank, wondering why it was that his life sucked so badly.

Months later, Larry and Jerry were transferred to a big, new aquarium.   It was long and rectangular, and had lots of colorful gravel on the bottom.  Their castle was there, along with a plastic diver who made bubbles.  Best of all, the tank was heated and had a filter system, along with a light at the top.

"Boy howdy!" Jerry exclaimed, "We've hit the big time here!   Look at the size of this place!   And heated water!  We're living like kings!"   And as if it couldn't get any better, their owner sprinkled a new kind of fish flake in the tank - one far tastier than the one before.   Jerry was in heaven!

But Larry just grumbled and pointed out imagined flaws in their new digs.   Everything was made in China, he said, and hurting our foreign exchange and putting people out of jobs.   And the new gourmet fish flakes were just ostentatious.   No, according to Larry, the new aquarium was certainly no improvement over their good old reliable fish bowl!

"But you hated that fish bowl, remember Larry?" Jerry asked.  "You said the water wasn't changed enough and the fish flakes were stale!"

"Well, maybe, but this is even worse, it is too upscale!"

Jerry just shook his head in disbelief and swam some more loop-de-loops through their ceramic castle.   He knew his friend Larry would never be happy.

Larry and Jerry grew old and fat and expanded to the size the aquarium would allow.   Jerry continued to be optimistic and happy.  Larry continued to grumble and be miserable.   One day, Larry flopped over on his side and floated to the top of the tank, having had a fish heart attack.  The last thing he said to Jerry was, "That's how life is, Jerry.  Someday you will realize it.  Life sucks, and then you die."  And with that he passed away.

Jerry felt sorry for his friend.  "Poor Larry was never happy.   No matter how much better things got, he was always convinced they weren't good enough.   He could never appreciate the moment or appreciate things for the way they were.   Maybe our life in a fish tank isn't perfect, but it could be a whole lot worse - like being in a Piranha tank, for example.    Oh, well.  Hey, more fish flakes!!!  Yea!"

* * * 

Jerry and Larry are real fish.  Their names and species have been changed to protect their identity.   Actually I know a lot of Larrys in this world - far too many in fact.   I know damn few Jerrys.

I was at the club hotel the other day.  Every Wednesday is happy hour, with drinks at half-price.   Not a bad deal, to sit in the lobby of a beautiful historic hotel, take in the view of the water, and talk with friends over a drink.    And they serve free hors d'oeuvres.   Nice fish flakes!

But I met a Larry there.   He bent my ear for an hour about how rotten everything was, how corrupt and evil the world is, and how bad our little island has become.   I gently tried to correct him, steer him in the other direction.  Point out that the fish flakes are pretty tasty.  But he would have none of that.  He wanted to be miserable and commiserate with others.

Sadly, our little island is full of Larrys.  They pick and point at every imagined flaw (and they are imagined) or decry anything that is done that is not the way they would have wanted it.   They can never just accept things as the way they are.

 And the Larrys of the world think the Jerrys of the world are all idiots.    Yes, I have been told, by people barely 10 years my senior, that I am just naive and stupid for not appreciating how corrupt and evil our island administration is.   After all, they are putting beach chairs - get this - on the beach!  Oh, me, oh my, what will come next?   Dogs marrying Cats?

But of course, it goes beyond our little island.   Chances are, you know a lot of Larrys, too.  Maybe you are one yourself.   We all are, at times.   It is helpful sometimes, however, to put your problems in perspective and realize that life is pretty decent, if not obscenely luxurious, for folks like us.

And by that, I mean folks like you, who have access to a computer and can read and write English.   Odds are, you are in the top 50% in terms of income for the planet.  If you live in the USA, even on welfare, the top 10% if not higher.   And odds are, if you are an American, you are overweight, if not obese.  You have it pretty good, so stop complaining.

And yet we complain.   Our government is no good.   Our corporations and institutions are corrupt and evil.  Successful people are bad.   We convince ourselves that the most prosperous and successful country on the planet - one that allows the most amount of freedom and wealth for the largest number of people - is somehow so fundamentally flawed that the only solution is the end times, survivalism, or a coup d'etat.

And people seriously believe this.  They get up every morning complaining from their first breath until they go to bed at night.   They make themselves miserable, and for what?

Yes, arguably this is a mental health issue - namely depression.   Most people are depressed it seems.   But I firmly believe, as I have stated before, that mental hygiene is like personal hygiene - you have to work at it.  If you let yourself think negative thoughts and engage in negative thinking, you can literally make yourself depressed and sick and even die.

It isn't wrong to say, "You know, things are not all that bad."  No, it really isn't.    You'd be surprised, however, at the strong negative reaction you'll get when you say that to other people.  Depressed people despise happy people - and yet are drawn to them.   If you are happy, you'll have no shortage of friends, trust me.  In fact, you will find people trying to attach themselves to you like a remora to a shark.

If you listen to a lot of people these days, they will tell you how rotten they have it.  Young people will decry how much debt they have - as if it were some natural phenomenon that "just happened" to them.   Old people will tell you how awful the economy is, even though it is chugging along quite well, and in fact, is doing better than most of the rest of the world.

Activists will bore you to death with perceived injustices - but when you scratch the surface of them, turn out to be less injustices and more people doing stupid things, like taking out payday loans or fighting with the police.

You can be happy.  I give you permission to do so (someone has to).   Or you can be a complaining Larry, looking for flaws in everything.    And if you take the latter path, you will be unhappy the rest of your life, as nothing will ever be good enough for you, nothing will ever be perfect, and nothing will ever make you happy.

Even if you lived on a beautiful resort island.   Maybe especially so.

Why I Am Not A Fan of Couponing

Is using coupons and reward programs a way to get ahead?   I am not sure it is worthwhile.

I keep harping on many things in this blog, and one of them is this:  You cannot spend your way to wealth.   You can go out and shop as hard as you can and you won't come home with more money than when you left.   It just doesn't work that way.   When you shop, you spend.   It is a given.   "Savings" at a store are just illusory price reductions.  Real Savings are what you put in the bank.

As I noted in another posting, people love to blog about couponing.  There are several television shows about it.  Newspapers and news stations love to put up stories about people who buy carts full of groceries for nothing, or nearly nothing.   A cart full of groceries, like gasoline, is a high Pavlovian-response thing for us plebes.  Free groceries?  Free Gas?  We'll bite on both of those - no matter how much we have to pay to get these "free" things.

But sadly, these coupon-cutters never seem to get ahead.   If they did, they'd all be cruising around in their yachts.  But few even have a boat.   Couponing, for most people, turns out to be an extraordinary time-waster, distractor, and a way of getting you to spend, not save.

A reader writes, in their blog:

Here is all that was a good deal or free I could find in my store......

2 x Dove men's body wash on sale=$8.00
2 x Reach toothbrushes on sale 50% off=$4.48
SubTotal....$12.48

Coupons Used
1 x $2/1 Dove body wash Load2CardQ=$2.00
1 x $2/1 Dove body was ManuQ(last Sunday's RP insert)=$2.00
2 x .75¢/1 Reach toothbrush IPQ(coupons dotcom)=$1.50
Coupon Total.....$5.50

$12.48-$5.50=$6.98 + .27¢ tax=$7.25

I used 400 Plenti Pts($4)and paid $3.25 OOP.....well not really OOP since I used a Rite-Aid gift card I bought 15% off months earlier so that spending is already accounted for in my budget.

I earned 400 new Plenti Pts on this transaction(200 wyb2 Dove body wash, 200 wyb2 Reach toothbrushes)so my Pts. total stays the same at 600 Pts.

In addition I have a Savingstar account and had clipped a $2 off 1 Dove body wash from there so I'll get $2 cash back in that account at a later date which takes my "OOP spending" down to $1.25 for these 4 items.

Now, if you are like most people, you probably had trouble following all of that - with the rewards points, coupons and whatnot.   But what this person did, was, after chasing down lots of coupons, enrolling in rewards program (which require you spend to get points),  mailing in rebates (and waiting for a rebate check) was get what appears to be $12.48 worth of items for only $1.25.

Well, $1.25 if we don't count the cost of the stamp used to send in the rebate form.   And $1.25 if we don't count the countless hours spent trying to get this "bargain".

This is quite a deal, right?   You could go out and sell these items on a street corner and make money!  Oh, wait, no one will pay you much for a bottle of body wash and some toothbrushes.   What she did was spend $1.25 to get maybe $4 worth of items.

Instead of couponing, I shop at the Dollar Tree.   Body wash there is a dollar a bottle.  Two bottles is two dollars.  Not with a coupon, not with bonus points, not with rebates.  And this price is in effect every day, all day, all year long.  I don't have to spend minutes or hours perusing newspapers (which cost money) or chasing down coupons, or spending money at a store to get rewards points.

But what about the toothbrushes?  Certainly those are a good deal, right?   Well, maybe to you.  I have literally a drawer full of toothbrushes, from my dentist, from hotel rooms, from friends who scarf them from hotel rooms.   I use an Oral-B electric toothbrush and buy the heads in bulk at the wholesale club.   If those were on sale for pennies, I suppose that would be a real bargain.

But regular toothbrushes?   Why pay for something that is basically free?

And that brings up the question, did this person buy these things because they needed them, or because they were "on sale" and an apparent bargain?

In other words, did they spend money to try to save money?

I am not picking on my reader, just using this example to illustrate a point.   If you are buying things because "at this price, you can't afford not to buy!" then you are likely wasting money.   If it is not something you need or really want, then what is the point of buying it, even if it is "on sale"?

And if you have to jump through so many hoops, and put so much labor into "saving" money, is it really a bargain?

Compare her deal to the one below, that I could get every day of the week:

Dollar Tree body wash: $2

Dollar Tree Toothbrush: $2

Total:  $4

The "savings" for all of his work isn't $12.48- $1.25=$11.25.   It certainly looks that way on paper.  But that is only because the "retail price" of brand-name goods is horribly over-inflated and no one pays retail most of the time anyway.

I bought a truck for $25,000 including tax.  It "retails" for $32,000.  Did I "save" $7,000?   Funny thing, when I drove it off the lot, I was $25,000 poorer, not $7,000 richer.

A better way to look at the purchase is by how much you SPENT, not artificial "discounts" from placeholder prices that mean nothing.   Shampoo and body wash is horrifically overpriced in supermarkets and drugstores.  $4 for a bottle of soap?   Who are they kidding?

So the real savings are this:  $4 (the actual worth of these items) - $1.25 = $2.75 in savings.   This still seems like a lot, right?    I mean, you'd stoop down to pick that up off the floor.  But subtract the 49 cents for first class postage to mail in a rebate of $2, as well as the cost of newspapers these days (to get the coupons) and maybe we are closer to breaking even.

Then factor in your time and effort to assemble such a deal, and maybe you are way behind.

Then factor in how much is SPENT to get "reward points" for such discounts - and maybe we are really far behind.

It is like airline miles.  If you fly for your job, take the miles and use them for upgrades (you will find it very hard to cash in miles for a trip for a family of four, due to blackout periods and the limited number of seats for miles passengers - unless you book two years in advance).   But if you don't fly for a job, you can't make money by buying airplane tickets to get the miles.   It is a promotional gag, nothing more.

If you find clipping coupons to be a rewarding hobby or a game to play, I guess there is some "fun factor" to be had in it.  And to be sure, sometimes there are real bargains to be had, if you look hard enough or if they leave a loophole in the game.  The pudding guy is one example.   And just like the Casinos like to tout their winners (so the rest of the plebes will play and lose their money) Couponers will cite the rare instances where someone walks away with a lot of "free stuff" for nothing or nearly nothing.  But those cases are the exception to the rule, not the rule.  And even the pudding guy had to pay cash money for those "miles" - they were not "free".   And airline miles are worth less and less, every day.

But I think a lot of coupon clippers are misleading themselves, by comparing retail prices (which are made-up numbers) with their discounts, and convincing themselves they are saving huge amounts of money.   

But the reality is, getting $4 of merchandise for $1.25 is fine and all, but it is not a screaming bargain, considering the amount of labor involved.   And no, our reader didn't "save" $11.23.   She walked out of the store with four bucks of stuff in a bag, but not $11.23 in her pocket.

Simple as that!

UPDATE:

A reader writes:

"A couple of weeks ago my wife and I actually witnessed our Publix cashier hand over $7 to the customer in front of us. She bought a cart full of soda, makeup and baby wipes(!) all with, we guess, a combination of manufacturer coupons and Publix coupons. Apparently Publix and Wal-Mart permit this. The cashier told us that this customer is a regular and that she sells the stuff at a local flea market. Hard to believe people get their jollies selling soda at the flea market but there you go. Interestingly, this 60-something female customer was covered in tattoos, some of them relatively new looking. Couponing and tattooing seem paradoxical, but maybe there's more similarity in the mindset than meets the eye?"

So, it is possible to sell these items bought at a discount at a flea market or elsewhere.   But since flea market shoppers are looking for "bargains" they are not going to pay full retail price for these goods.   So you have to sell them at a discount, which means your margins are pretty thin, plus you have to pay for the flea market booth, the gas to get there, and of course, your tattoos.

 

Speaking of which, while tattoos have gone mainstream it would seem (actually, media celebrities get them so their target audience - the lower classes - identify with them, the very wealthy are rarely covered with tats) they still remain the provence of the poor.  How people can afford them is a good question.  I guess all that money they save couponing.

As I noted in another posting, I saw a young girl, pierced and tatted, driving a clapped out Hyundai with a cracked windshield, sporting a bumper sticker that said, "Tattooed and Employed" - which sort of says it all, doesn't it.

No one ever got rich on couponing.  Otherwise the rich would be doing it.   One other odd aspect of couponing is that on some videos I have seen, people buy lots of things using coupons and then just hoard them.  One lady had shelving in her garage full of rows and rows of products.   Like her own little store.   I guess it made her feel wealthy.   But I failed to see the point.   The cost of the shelving negated any savings from couponing.

Oh well, I guess people need hobbies, and couponing is not as stiflingly boring as genealogy at least.

Noble Sentiments

Jesus died to save us from our sins.  So... you don't have to!

Come down from the cross, we need the wood.  It is a popular sentiment, as many people today like to crucify themselves, it seems, for some greater cause or ideal.   The problem with this model of living is that (a) we didn't ask them to do this on our behalf, and (b) their "sacrifice" usually ends up accomplishing nothing - and hurting themselves in the process.

A reader writes that he wants to live a minimalist lifestyle, not to save money, but so that he earns the least he can, pays the least amount of taxes, and thus isn't fueling the "war machine".   Those are noble sentiments, and I have heard them before, growing up in the 1960's.   My older siblings bought into that sort of thinking, and they are now at retirement age and paying the price for it.

Why is this a bad idea?  Well, it is wrong on so many levels.

First of all, most of what you pay in taxes goes right back to you.   The government mostly spends money on its citizens, not the military war machine, which makes up less than 20% of your tax dollars.  So by not earning money, you are not really choking off the Pentagon in any real way, only cheating yourself and your fellow citizens out of one of the greatest social welfare programs on the planet (in terms of benefits and number of people served).

Second, your actions will only harm yourself, and not change our society much.  In fact, your influence on society will diminish the less money you make.   That doesn't mean you have to be Warren Buffett or Bill Gates to have an input on how the world works.   Obama was elected because millions of people sent him $10, $20, or $2000 (as I did).  If you are broke, you can't send him anything.   Voting is important, to be sure, but contributions to political campaigns are the real voice of America (and always have been) so get over it.   Be successful, be prosperous, and you will have a louder megaphone for your ideas.

Third, you will really hurt yourself in the process.  The peak earning years for Americans are from about age 30 to age 50.   Before then, you don't have the job skills to earn much money.  After that, it is not uncommon to be laid off or take early retirement and start a second career.   So if you spend your prime years taking a vow of poverty as a political statement, you will be seriously hurting when you turn 60 and want to retire on your savings.

As my friend Wendell the bass-player illustrated, working under the table for 30 years means you won't collect any Social Security even.   You could find yourself in quite a pickle at age 65, when the body is no longer able to do what it used to do, during your prime years.   You will regret not preparing better.

Fourth, while the intentions are noble (to save society) by not fulfilling your part of the Unwritten Social Contract you will end up becoming a burden to society.   You'll end up taking out more than you put in, and that is just being a social parasite.  And how is that noble - in any way?

I used to think along similar lines, when I was in my 20's.   I should do something to save the planet or change our society or help the cause or whatever.   One of my professors at Syracuse, Dr. Sol Gordon, gave me some great advice in this regard:

I was talking with him one day, and I asked him what I should do to advance political causes in my life.  I was young and felt that being a "causista" was something noble or desirable to do - after all I came from a family of such idiots.

His answer was concise and sound.

"What is it you are here at Syracuse University to study?" he asked.

"Electrical Engineering," I replied.

"Then be the best Electrical Engineer you can be" he said.

Thanks Sol.  Good advice.

You see, taking care of yourself is the first and foremost thing you should do, before you go running off to save the world to take on other people's "causes."

Yea, I know, that sounds "selfish", right?  You should care about your fellow man, right?   But think about it a second.   Aren't you one of those fellow mans yourself?  If you refuse to take care of yourself, how can you save or help others?  And by not taking care of yourself, are you doing a service to your fellow man and society, or being a burden to it?

I realized later in life that by myself, I could not change the world - entirely.  As part of overall public sentiment, however, I could have some small input, for example, as a voter, and more importantly, as a contributor to a political campaign.

But there are other ways you can change the world - or your part of it.   You can do a job, and do it well - and do it ethically.   I mention many times in this blog, how so many people get financially stressed and so far in debt that they feel they cannot quit their jobs or blow the whistle on toxic waste spills, because they are more concerned about their Chevette payments or whatever.   If you can be financially independent, you can be an ethical player.

For example, I worked for a law firm that was a decent place to work.  They did good quality ethical work.  But then one partner decided that it would be a good idea to represent one of these invention broker companies.   I had problems with that.  I quit.  I could afford to.  Others, with hefty mortgages, felt that had to go along with it.  Of course, it was also a smart personal decision as the law firm ended up getting some bad publicity over that, and later on, disbanded.

Later, I testified against an attorney who was representing one of these invention broker firms.  Did it do much good?  I am not sure.   But few other attorneys were willing to do so.   I've also tried, in my Patent Blog and this blog, to alert people to these sorts of cons, as well as other types of raw deals and outright ripoffs.   What I have discovered is, most people don't want to hear it.  They will fight you and defend their financial abusers.

It turns out, I learned, that the biggest reason most people get into trouble in life has more to do with their own actions, than those of others.  And in that regard, you can't save people from themselves, but you can try to save yourself - which is a far easier task, quite frankly.

Even the "war machine" he decries was fueled not only by tax dollars, but public sentiment.  Right or wrong, after 9/11 most Americans wanted revenge, even if it was on the wrong country.   Public sentiment put an end to those wars, (well for the most part - as we are finding out, starting a war in the Middle East is easy.  Ending it, another story).   Not paying taxes?  I am not sure that will accomplish much.

So, I commend my young reader for having noble sentiments and being public spirited.   But I would caution him not to invest his entire life in trying to help out a lot of people who really don't think they need his help - sacrificing his own life in the process.

Because, 20 years from now is too late to change your mind.   And 20 years from now, as a 55-year-old with creaky bones, outdated job skills, and limited earning capacity, one might wish that the golden years were spent putting at least something aside for old age.

Just the perspective of a 55 year old.

I Don't Want To Talk About It (Living in Denial)

Denial can be a powerful force.

A reader writes:

Flipping through the channels (I know, but at least I don't have cable), I heard the last part of a program on Consuelo Mack's "Wealthtrack" show on PBS, and it so startled me that I went online and watched the entire show (the good part is less than 20 minutes).    I usually ignore Consuelo Mack because I don't have a large amount of disposable income or need a financial planner, but this show repeated everything you've been saying about the 401K generation.  The show was a rebroadcast of a show originally broadcast on January 23, 2015.  Charles Ellis, a business professor at Harvard and Yale, has co-authored a book called "Falling Short:  The Coming Retirement Crisis."  He said that a crisis is coming and no one is concerned because no one in the business community or in government is talking about it, but it's real and it's going to be a huge problem.  He said he didn't write the book to make money, but to try to arouse some concern and get people in government to start talking about the problem.  He said that in Australia that by law you and your employer have to put 14% of your income in a retirement account, and that there are only about five low-cost index funds that you have to invest in, so you won't be confused or lose a lot in fees, and he believes that the U.S. should do something similar.  It's scary.  This is the info:

http://wealthtrack.com/recent-programs/ellis-fixing-the-retirement-crisis/

"Falling Short: The Coming Retirement Crisis and What To Do About It"
Charles D. Ellis, Alicia H. Munnell and Andrew D. Eschtruth
WEALTHTRACK Episode #1131; Originally Broadcast on January 23, 2015

So it's not just me.   Bad things are going to happen to an entire generation of retirees, and nobody wants to talk about it.   Why is this?

It is human nature.  We live in denial.  We'd rather sweep problems under the rug than address them.  We don't like conversation that makes us uncomfortable.   We don't like to talk about Politics or Religion - two topics these days that should desperately be talked about.   So instead, what we learn about Politics is what we hear on the television, usually in attack ads.  What we hear about religion comes thundering down from the pulpit.   Neither are good unbiased sources of information.

Similarly, I have seen people squirm in their seats and try to change the topic when I mention finances, credit card debt, car leasing nightmares, and the coming retirement debacle.   Change the channel please, I'd rather have happy talk.   Maybe Pawn Stars is on, right?

People would rather gossip about other people, or talk about scandals or funny videos on YouTube.   They don't want to confront the problems in their lives.   After all, they might actually solve them, right?  And then where would they be?   Having to worry about dying is what.

It is human nature to try to forget unpleasant things.   If we don't, we go crazy.   Soldiers returning from war try to put the horrific images out of their mind.   We don't want to be depressed.

But this aspect of human nature is also dangerous.  By suppressing thoughts that are unpleasant, we fail to address problems in our lives.  We drive our car off a cliff, convinced by "happy talk" that we are taking a wise shortcut to the bottom of the mountain.

The powers that be, of course, have no vested interest in talking about this problem.   Telling people that they are going to die broke and poor doesn't sell newspapers.   Telling them about other people in misery, of course, sells newspapers.   So long as they can tsk-tsk about the foibles of others it is a compelling story.

And the banks and investment houses, they want you to invest, of course, but they have little financial benefit in trying to tell people who are 60 and have nothing saved that they are utterly screwed.   No one likes bad news, and they tend to kill the messenger.

The government is silent because there is no constituency for this message.  Would would sound the alarm?  The IRS?  Social Security Administration?  Again, no one wants to be the bearer of bad tidings, as they would be then blamed for the message.

And I've learned from experience that people in denial are very hostile to folks who try to tell them basic honest truths.  Denial is a very powerful mechanism, as anyone who has dealt with addicted friends or family members can attest to.  In another posting, I mentioned two lawyer friends of mine who decided to become crack heads in law school:

As I mentioned before, I had a friend whose husband, while in law school, decided that a little crack wouldn't hurt.  Before long, he wanted to spend the mortgage payment on crack.  She demurred on the grounds that the mortgage would then be unpaid.  "Yea, but we'd have a lot of crack!" was his reply.

That's a pretty powerful denial mechanism at work there.

So when you talk to people about retirement, they get fidgety and nervous.   You can tell that at age 55 they are still struggling with credit card debts (but will regale you about the "bonus cashback miles" they got) and they have once again refinanced their house to pay off debts.   They have under-saved and over-spent and don't want to talk about it because talking about it means thinking about it and that is scary.  So they shut down and change the subject.

Or, they use mantras to drown out reality.   And you've heard them before:

"I'll just work until I'm 70!  I like working!  People who retire early are lazy!"

"Everyone has a mortgage, right?  I'll never own my home free-and-clear!"

"Everyone has debts, right?"

"You'll always have a car payment in life, that's just how it works!"

And today's new one, for the Millennial generation:

"Student Loans are unavoidable.  It's like a mortgage on life!"

(By the way, a friend of mine is sending their kid off to college.  Years ago, she and her ex-husband contributed a lump sum to a State tuition program that today will pay for all four years of his college.   She and her husband have agreed to split the cost of room and board.   As a result, their child can graduate with do debt whatsoever, if he chooses to.   It can be done, for average middle-class people!)

These mantras are comfort-food for the brain.   And the folks who say them, say them to each other, as if to say, "Well, it's not so bad here as a galley slave!"

So, don't expect to hear much about the retirement debacle.   And when the baby boomers and their younger siblings start to retire in droves, and the ugly truth becomes unavoidable?   Well, we'll all just externalize the issue and blame the big banks or the "Wall Street Fat Cats" for "taking all our money away!"

Oh, wait, we're already doing that.

Who took the money away?

Clinton versus Bush - Again.

Is it time for Hillary?   Have you seen the other choices?

The 2016 elections are coming up again.   And this time around, it is Clinton versus Bush.   Oh, sure, the primaries haven't even started yet, but we know how this will play out.   This time around, Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee as the Democrats are not fielding any serious candidates.

And on the GOP side, the only candidate who could even hope to get a national majority is Jeb Bush. 

Ted Cruz?  Be serious.  Besides, he's Canadian - and we've seen his birth certificate.   Sorry, but that game plays both ways.  Born in a foreign country? Can't be President.  Oh, there are different rules for Republicans?  I see.  Or have you been lying to us for nearly eight years?   The latter, I'm afraid.  Which is why I can't vote GOP - they insult my intelligence with this "birther" nonsense, which they foster and fester.  I'm not a fucking idiot.  Thanks for playing, though.

So it will be Jeb, unless he does something really stupid.   Bobby Jindal and the other munchkins don't really have a chance.

So like it or not, we have to political dynasties fighting for the Presidency.   Like that never happened in the USA before, right?  I am reading Gore Vidal's Empire series of historical novels.   He is a bit of a kook (Vidal) but the novels send you clicking on Google and Wikipedia frequently.  Did that really happen, or is this the fictional part of the novel?  Oddly enough, odd things have happened throughout our history.   And political dynasties are one of them.

The Roosevelts, of course come to mind, as one family that had two Presidents.  Elenore was, by the way, Teddy's niece, and she and FDR saved a lot of money on monogramming (not having to change her name after marrying her cousin).

The Adams family (not of TV fame) spawned two Presidents (Nos. 2 and 6) and was active in politics until the 20th Century.  And yes, I am sure people said at the time, "What, another Adams in the White House?"

So just get over this "political dynasty" thing - our nation spawns political families, so just get over it.

The real question is, of the choice presented, who is the best candidate?

Note that I did not say, "Who is your ideal candidate?" because that is never the question on the ballot.

As I have noted time and time again, political maturity dictates that you pick the candidate you feel best suited for the job, not the candidate that panders to every one of your whims.   Because the latter candidate will never exist.

And if you decide to stay home in a hissy fit because your "perfect" candidate isn't running, then the worst of your two options often wins by default.

This is the real danger for Hillary.  A majority of the United States doesn't feel that Jeb Bush is the best choice for President - nor any of the other Republican candidates.   But people on the right have been waiting eight years to give Obama his walking papers, and they will passionately vote for whoever the GOP puts forth.

On the other side, well, you saw how the mid-terms went.   Since our Black President wasn't on the ballot, most voters who put him in office stayed home, with predictable results.   Hillary faces the same problem.   Many folks have vague unease about the Clintons, which is predictable, as the GOP has been cranking up the Clinton FUD machine for decades now.   Clinton Death Lists?  Check.   Clinton Financial Misdoings?  Check?   Benghazi?  Check, Check, Check, Check, CHECK!!!!

So when I talk to dyed-in-the-wool Democrats, their response to Hillary 2016 is a big yawn.   Oh, maybe she'll win, but there are all those questions, right?   And Hillary hasn't made the personal appeal for money that Obama did.   By getting people to send in $10, $20, $100, or $2000 (as I did), Obama not only out-raised his opponent, he got people to invest in the election.  Why stay home on election night when you've bought into the process, literally?

(By the way, the Hillary website is horrific.  The "donate now" tab is fraught with HTML coding errors.  If you click on an amount to donate, it bombs out.  If you fill out the donation form and manually enter a dollar amount and click "donate" it bombs out, but apparently takes your donation.   America might be ready for Hillary, but Hillary is still not ready for the Internet.)

I still get e-mails from "Obama" asking me for money.   Hillary has yet to beg for a single cent.   You would think Obama would give her access to his mailing list or something.   But no.   Hillary, it seems, is courting the big money donors, just as she did the last time around.  And that is exactly the sort of thing that keeps people home on election night.   You don't need my money?   You don't need my vote, either.

And no, spending a billion dollars on advertising isn't going to drive me to the polls.   Investment is.

So, this is Hillary's election to lose.   And sadly, I think she will lose it, and this will be disastrous for the United States.  We will see Social Security cut.  We will see taxes for the rich cut.  We will see even more deficit spending, as we did under the last Bush.  And we will see more needless wars in the Middle East - the wrongs wars fought at the wrong time - wars that created the situation we are in today.

And like the last Bush, we will see gas to to $5 a gallon and the economy collapse.   And it is not far-fetched, because (a) it happened before and (b) we have a guy who is beholden to the energy companies, and (c) with more deficit spending our currency will collapse and inflation take off.

Oh, and Bush will kill Obamacare leaving everyone scrambling to figure out just what the hell we're going to do for healthcare.   My advice?  Don't get sick.   Shitty advice, I grant you that.   

Instead of just fixing Obamacare, the GOP will just toss it out in favor of nothing which in turn will create chaos in the medical market.

And all of this may very well happen.   If you thought buying gold was a good idea because Obama became President.... well, maybe we will see $5000 an ounce under Bush.

Sadly, the sentiment I am hearing from most Democrats is that since the leader of their choice (who is an unnamed "someone else") isn't running, they will stay home rather than vote for Hillary.   And in swing states, this amounts to a vote for Jeb Bush.

I am usually an optiimisitic person, but I see our country heading off a cliff, because a lot of people are politically immature, and not being able to get "their way" will stay home and pout instead.   I will have no sympathy for them when Jeb Bush cancels their Obamacare and tosses the country in to deep recession and sends their kids off to be killed in a foreign war.

No sympathy at all.