When New York was a Red State

I grew up in a Red State - New York  Our governor for over a decade was a Liberal Republican, Nelson Rockefeller.

There is a lot of chatter today about New York's politics, after Governor Cuomo mused that Tea Partiers really are out-of-place in this bluest of blue states.

What cracked me up about this comment, is that apparently the Governor fails to understand history (even though his Dad was once Governor) and realize that New York was, for years, solidly Republican.

But of course, many people don't understand that the GOP was once the "Liberal" party of the United States, and in fact, most people would call you a liar if you said so.

Until about 50 years ago, the Republican Party was the party of big business, but was also the party of liberalism.   The Republican Party was the Party of the North - hence its industrial bias - and also the party of abolition.   It was the Republicans that freed the slaves, not the Democrats.

The Democratic Party (please, not "Democrat Party" - that's Foxsnewspeak) was the party of the South, and hence the party that fought de-segregation - often violently.

In a way, both parties were schitzophrenic, as the Democratic Party had a strong labor base in the North, but represented right-wing Klansmen in the South, while the GOP represented big business in the North, but social liberals as well.

And the GOP, far from being the party of "limited government" was the party of big, Big, BIG Government, and Nelson Rockefeller exemplified this.   He built up Albany (the Capital of New York) into a mega-government city, complete with its own Death-Star like "campus" for housing one of the largest State bureaucracies outside of California.

The Empire (State) Strikes Back:  Governor Nelson Rockefeller's monument to big government and himself, in Albany, New York, the "Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller Empire State Plaza"

"Rocky" as people used to call him (this, long before the movie of the same name) was a liberal Republican - a term which does not exist today.   While they might not have embraced socialism or the welfare State, liberal Republicans believed that efficient well-run government was a good thing, regardless of its size.

Reflecting his interdisciplinary approach to problem solving Rockefeller took a pragmatic approach to governing. In their book Rockefeller of New York: Executive Power in the State House, Robert Connery and Gerald Benjamin state, "Rockefeller was not committed to any ideology. Rather, he considered himself a practical problem solver, much more interested in defining problems and finding solutions around which he could unite support sufficient to ensure their enactment in legislation than in following either a strictly liberal or strictly conservative course. Rockefeller's programs did not consistently follow either liberal or conservative ideology." Early fiscal policies were conservative while later ones were not so. In the later years of his administration "conservative decisions on social programs were paralleled by liberal ones on environmental issues."

Whether this is a good thing or not, is of course, open for debate.  The ultimate legacy of Nelson Rockefeller was big government in New York - in a big way.   And with that comes big taxes, which is the primary reason I no longer live in New York today.   When taxes went up - way up - jobs went away.   And even returning there as a summer resident proved too costly for me, when property taxes shot up to cover the costs of ambitious social welfare programs.

But remember, this is a Republican Governor we are talking about.   And I am not sure much has changed today, in New York, whose last Republican mayor wanted to regulate everything from smoking to how big a soft drink you could buy.   Perhaps Republicans in New York are from an alternate reality.

But historically, Republicans were not always the party of conservatism.  Things started to change, at least in voter's minds, around 1968.   You may recall, this is the era in which Barry Goldwater ran for President as a conservative Republican, and Democrats embraced LBJ's "Great Society".   People started squaring off into corners, with Democrats flocking northward, and Republicans fleeing to the South.    Well, actually, most people stayed put, they just changed party affiliations.

Nixon, a Republican, tried to control inflation following the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo by instituting wage and price controls.   Can you imagine how Fox News would handle that today?   Not only was that Socialism, it was downright Communism - a "command economy" move, from a Republican President!

Even Ronald Reagan was "Liberal" by today's standards - as he instituted the first amnesty program for illegal immigrants.   And yes, the gang at Fox News has pilloried him for this faux pas.   Perhaps the legend of Reagan is already tainted.   He was a RINO if there ever was one.

So what does this all mean?   I am not sure, other than party labels and party affiliations are pretty meaningless.   And maybe that is one reason the majority of Americans consider themselves to be independents and not affiliated with any one party.

Parties, by their very nature, will never represent all of the people, all of the time.   And political maturity dictates that you understand that any candidate, other than yourself, cannot represent your own views all of the time (indeed, even if you ran for office, you would have to represent the views of your district, not yourself, if you hoped to be re-elected).

The GOP, in expunging its liberal wing, has shed voters at the same time.   It seems they spend more time arguing over who is more politically correct (how ironic) and instituting purges that would make Stalin proud, than in actually trying to govern - or more importantly, get elected.

One cannot be a fiscal conservative and a social liberal, it seems, at least not in the Republican Party.  And increasingly, the GOP doesn't even seem to be the party of fiscal conservatism.   The eight-year national nightmare of the Bush Presidency did nothing but ring up staggering deficits and create a huge speculative bubble on Wall Street and on Main Street.   We are still paying for this party with a five-year national hangover.

Sadly, it seems that today, people are squaring off more than ever.  But signs of compromise are appearing here and there, like crocuses after a spring snowstorm.   Speaker Boehner, who caved-in to the tea party's demands to crash the government, has been compromising on one issue after another, settling for the possible rather than the ideological.   And the real money in the GOP (big business) has had enough of the posturing of the far right.   The titans of Wall Street and the Corporate Board Rooms really don't give a rat's ass about Gay Marriage or Abortion.   They want financial responsibility and stability - something the GOP has not been delivering in recent years.  They loved Bush for his tax cuts, but he delivered little else.

2014 will be an interesting year.   The big money in the GOP, funded by groups like the US Chamber of Commerce, is trying to derail the candidacies of tea partiers and other far-right candidates.

Who knows?   Maybe in 20 years, the GOP will once again have a "liberal" wing.....

Death of Aeropostale?

Like Banana Republic, Chess King, Benetton, Abercrombie, and a host of others, Aeropostale sprang up suddenly, like daisies after a spring rainstorm - and now seems just as likely to disappear altogether.

I knew that Aeropostale wasn't long for this world, when a friend of ours gave us an Aeropostale hat she had bought at a garage sale for 10 cents.   The fact the seller felt it was of so little value was one thing.   The fact that a 50-something man is now wearing it, says another.

Aeropostale is one of those mall stores that sells overpriced Chinese-made clothing to clueless teenagers, for staggering sums of money.  Clothing items that cost only a few cents to make are sold for tens of dollars.   And teens feel they "have to have" one of these shirts or hats, or else they will be ostracized by their peers.

Teenagers are idiots of the first order, of course.

So, now the bloom is off the rose for Aeropostale, another clothing company that is subject to the fickle fate of teen fashions and fads.    You live by the fad, you die by the fad.   The company is trying to cut costs to stay in business - a sure sign of flop sweat at this point.

Can they stay alive?   Perhaps.  I was in South Beach, Miami the other day, and they actually had a Benetton store there, if you can believe it.   Many of these fad chains don't die off entirely, but sort of just fade away to become niche retailers - perhaps hoping that someday, lightning will strike again, and suddenly everyone "must have" a Hollister t-shirt, if nothing else, to be retro.

And who knows?  Maybe today's teens are wising up and realizing that working an after-school job (if you can even get one) for 20 hours a week, just to buy a t-shirt, is the ultimate in idiotic behavior.  Maybe, when push comes to shove, overpriced poorly-made clothing is the first "luxury" to get shelved.

Maybe, but I doubt it.

I think the real deal is this:  These fad clothing stores have a half-life of less than a decade.   When I was a mall rat teen, working at the Old Tyme Gas Light Restaurant, the popular clothing store for "young people" was Chess King.

By the time I was graduating from college, (about a decade later) Chess King was no more, but all the clueless girls from Long Island were wearing Green-and-White sweaters with "BENETTON" on the front of them, in foot-high letters.   That fad lasted about - a decade.

Since then, there have been other trendy clothiers to hit the scene.  DKNY exploded on the scene, and then faded away (When Mark was working at Linen's N Things, a young woman came is asking if they had "any of that Dickney Stuff").  Abercrombie was popular about 15 years ago, and has already hit the skids - upstaged by the more trendy Aeropostale brand.   Aeropostale, in turn, has seen its fortunes wane, no doubt replaced by some new "hip" brand of clothing, that we oldsters haven't heard about yet (and could care less about).

And the vaunted "must have" item of teen clothing ends up languishing in the closet, or sold at a garage sale for ten cents.

So what's the point of all this?   Buying trendy crap that is poorly made and aimed at the youth market is a total waste of money.   It doesn't make you an "individual" to wear a uniform identical to all the other teens.   The coveted T-shirt or hat that costs far more than it is worth, will seem pointless within a year or two.    In fact, you will likely be mocked for wearing it, once the fad wears down.

Save your money and buy things that are timeless fashions.   Cheaply made "pre-distressed" fashion jeans will wear out in a year - and look hopelessly out of date.   A good pair of quality jeans that fit well, will last years, and never go out of style (and will be "distressed" naturally, over time).   Split leather fashion coats are junk that fall apart in short order (and go out of style).   Real leather jackets, on the other hand, never fade from fashion, and in fact, still hold their value (I had a black motorcycle jacket that I wore for 10 years - and later sold it to a "vintage" leather shop for more than what I paid for it!).  

Invest in quality, not trendy branding and fads.

But that being said, you can't tell teenagers anything, can you?

Another Retirement Calculator

A retirement calculator can be a useful tool.

CNN recently reported that "401(k) balances are at an all-time high!" which is an idiotic headline for a number of reasons:

1.  Over time, more and more people will contribute to their 401(k) plans, and balances will increase.

2.  As the stock market goes up, balances in 401(k) plans will go up as well.

3.  As the population increases, more and more people will put money into 401(k) plans.

4.  As fewer people have defined benefit pensions, more money will go into 401(k) plans.

So, the statement that "401(k) balances are at an all-time high!" is like the GOP calling every tax increase "The biggest tax increase EVER!" - because dollar amounts always increase over time, due to inflation if nothing else, so everything in the financial world gets larger.

It doesn't mean much, though.

Numbers always go up, other than for short-term losses, like in 2009 (which evaporated within a year or so).

It does create a compelling headline to generate click-through revenue, right?

The story did have this link to an interactive  retirement calculator, which was very interesting to try out.

The calculator appears to use some variant of the 4% or 5% rule to figure out if you have enough money to retire:

Methodology

This calculator estimates how much you'll need to save for retirement. To make sure you're thinking about the long haul, we assume you'll live to age 92. But you could live to be 100 or incur large medical bills early on in retirement that may raise your costs even further. Social Security is factored into these calculations, but other sources of income, such as pensions and annuities, are not. All calculations are pre-tax. 

It goes on and on, though.  If you want to click on the link, you can read their methodology in more detail.  It assumes that your retirement income will be 85% of your working income, adjusted for inflation.

I plugged in some numbers, and it was reassuring.   Even if I save very little (1%) from here on out, I can retire at age 54 (March of this year) with an income of $65,000 a year (which is more than I am making now).  It makes me wonder whether I should just retire right now.

The problem is, of course, that most of this money is tied up in IRA accounts, and if I decide to "retire early" I would pay a 10% penalty for early withdrawal.   A big chunk is tied up in investment Real Estate (still!) which for various reasons I cannot liquidate right now (but will likely be able to do so, in the next five years), and the balance is in Life Insurance policies, which are generating nearly 100% rate of return on the premiums invested - so it seems kind of silly to cash those out right now.

So, it looks like I'll have to work another five years, until age 59-1/2, when I can tap that sweet IRA without paying a tax penalty.

So, here's irony for you:  Right now, I live like a pauper, on not a very large income.   But when I hit retirement age, I will have enough saved up to live larger than I do today.   I hope I live long enough to retire!   Because that would be the ultimate irony - sacrificing the now for a later than never happens!

Is the ACLU Good or Bad? Bad.

When an organization sends out a mailing that is faked-up to look like a government form, they are lying to you.   They also think you are an idiot.   Either way, it ain't good.  Click on image to enlarge.

Is the ACLU good or bad?   They are good in that they take up cases that do defend the rights of individuals.   They are bad in that sometimes, these individuals are Nazis or other odious people.   Like with PETA, sometimes the ACLU goes too far to make a point.

But a recent mailing I received from them definitely puts them in the "BAD" camp with me, from now on, and forever.

Why?

Well, it was a faked-up mailing chock full of lies.   And people who lie to me are not my friends.  As a great man one said, "Whenever someone enters into a business relationship with you, predicated on a lie - no matter how trivial - the relationship will go downhill from there."

And yes, this deceptive mailing is full of trivial lies and mis-truths.   But why should the ACLU be deceptive at all?

The image above is the envelope this "survey" came in.   Before you even open this envelope, you can see it is full of tiny lies, right on the face of it.   The size, shape, and format of the envelope mimics a government mailing, and it is being mailed out at tax time.    Are these the 1099 forms I was waiting for?  Or my refund?  Or a notice of audit?   I'd better pay attention to it!

The envelope says that I have been selected for a special survey.  Problem is, the envelope is addressed to a non-existent "Mark Bell".   I have not so much been selected, but rather am just a recipient of a piece of junk mail.  (You can opt out of junk mail, if you want to, but if they send to a non-existent name, maybe they get around that limitation).

Note the meaningless black bar on the left, and the notation of "Code 00-01-01-2014" - this must be official!   And it is stamped "DO NOT BEND", so there must be something important inside!

Actually no, on two counts.

First, it is not stamped "DO NOT BEND" but rather the envelope was pre-printed with a fake "DO NOT BEND" stamp.   So there is a little lie right there.  No one was stamping these envelopes by hand, they were a mass-mailing.   And if you are going to print "DO NOT BEND" on the envelope, why bother making it look like a distressed hand stamp?  Lying again.

And of course, if you open the envelope, there is nothing inside that can't be bent.   It just has a few sheets of paper with a bogus "survey" to fill out, and a pitch to send money to the ACLU.  It could have been sent in a standard #9 envelope, in reality.   But that wouldn't look as important, would it?

The bogus "survey"  Click to enlarge.

Not only am I being asked my opinions on important questions of the day, but I am being asked to represent the State of Georgia!   Gee-whiz!  What an honor!

"So what?", you say, "what's the harm in making a deceptive-looking envelope and providing a bogus survey as part of a fund-raising drive?   Everybody does it!"

And yea, you're right.  Everyone does.   But you don't expect an organization like the ACLU, which is supposed to be on the side of freedom and righteousness, to be engaging in sleazy and deceptive tactics, just to snare your eyeballs and credit card number.   This is the sort of nonsense that organizations like the ACLU should be against.

It would be like getting deceptive junk mail from Consumer Reports.   Whoops.

But sadly, many organizations claiming to represent "the little guy" engage in these types of practices all the time.   The AARP is famous for its deceptive flyers for Elder Life Insurance, usually stamped "URGENT!  OPEN AT ONCE!" - when in fact they are not urgent and are in fact,  junk mail.

Organizations take on a life of their own, and the number one goal of any organization is self-preservation.   People at the top of such organizations make a lot of money, and keeping the organization going becomes the name of the game.   And this is why, I think, the ACLU, the NRA, and PETA are seeking out more and more extreme agendas - they have to find new outrages, in order to justify their existence.

The ACLU started out defending personal liberties.   Now they take extreme cases and try to get manger scenes removed from town squares.    The NRA started out as a hunting organization.   Now they push for guns in schools.   PETA started out helping animals.  Now they want us to outlaw fishing.   All three organizations are victims of their own success.  They have to move to the fringe, in order to survive.

How much do the people who run the ACLU make?   It is hard to say, as they don't give out numbers.   According to the Better Business Bureau, however, only about 36% of the millions they take in every year, goes into projects.  (Disclaimer, the source of this information is Fox News).

But to me, this mass-mailing (addressed to "Mark Bell") tips the scales for me.   Not only is the mailing deceptive, but it insults my intelligence.   The ACLU thinks I am a chump who will open an envelope that is faked-up to look like something from the government.  And they think I am dumb enough to believe that my opinions on a "survey" are important - and not just a come-on for me to send them money.

This mailing tells me the ACLU is not my friend and does not have my best interests at heart.   This e-mail tells me that the ACLU is in survival mode, and will do anything - anything at all - to raise money.

Sorry, but no sale.  If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.   Sending out deceptive mass-mailings faked up to look like government documents or "surveys" is not enhancing the reputation of the underlying organization.

The ACLU has officially jumped the shark.

New Conspiracy Theories

There is no shortage of conspiracy theories, and people come up with new ones all the time.   What's up with that?

Perception of reality is key to getting your finances in order.  People who believe in elves or angels don't tend to be financially astute - or very happy.   They live in a fantasy world, and are constantly bludgeoned by what they perceive to be mean, old reality, which refuses to comply with their fantasy-wishes.   As a result, they retreat further into fantasy and delusion.

Reality, however, is value-neutral.   It is what it is, and don't buy into this metaphysical crap they teach at Liberal Arts colleges that reality varies, depending on the viewpoint of the person perceiving it.   You can perceive all you want, reality remains constant.   Only your perception changes - from either more accurate or to less accurate.

Conspiracy theories are a particular departure from reality, in that they take up a lot of the victim's time and emotional energy, devoting themselves to this nonsense, and they skew the victim's perception of reality.   And by "victim" here, I don't mean a victim of the conspiracy, but a victim of the conspiracy theory - the person who spends tons of emotional energy, time, and often money, trying to follow or become expert on conspiracy theories.

Take, for example, the tax protester (or tax denier).  Against all logic and common sense, these folks claim that the tax system in the United States doesn't exist and that people who pay their taxes are fools as the entire system is fictitious or unlawful or some other nonsense.   And I have seen smart people fall for this nonsense - even Attorneys.  Even Wesley Snipes.

This is one conspiracy theory where perception of reality directly affects your finances.   Not only will you be hit with tax liens and judgements, you may end up in jail.   And yes, I have seen this happen, to a friend of mine, who really believed this nonsense.  Conspiracy theories are evil, period.  They destroy the lives of the people who believe in them.

You see, even if you don't end up in IRS jail, believing in conspiracy theories can damage your life in a number of other ways.   They are time bandits, to be sure.  And the money you spend on DVDs, Books, and the like is just money down the drain.   But in addition, they also mark you as a loser and a kook, which means that you are far less likely to advance at your job, or find a good spouse.   You will end up lonely, depressed, and unemployed.

And for what?  So you can regale people about the Kennedy Assassination?   It ain't worth it.

A lot of drug users fall for these conspiracy theories.   They have a lot of time on their hands, and their perception of reality is warped.   Back when I smoked a lot of pot, one of my more paranoid po-thead friends started going off about "black helicopters" flying over his house.   He was certain they were using infrared technology to spot his grow-room.   This was back in the 1980's, before a lot of that nonsense became popular, too.

But between bong-hits, I've heard every conspiracy theory there is, and today, a new generation of po-theads is impoverishing themselves, financially and mentally, with a whole new slew of conspiracies:

Chemtrails:  For some reason, we never thought much about the contrails left by airliners back in the 1960's and 1970's.   Until deregulation, not many people traveled by air.  Today, airliners are the Greyhound Bus of America - everybody uses them, and many more fly.   Conspiracy theorists claim that the increased number of trails left by airplanes are "evidence" of chemicals being sprayed on an unsuspecting populace, for various nefarious reasons (cue: scary theremin music).

9-11 Truthers:  9/11 was a compete fake, even through thousands of people saw the planes hitting the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.   Amateur metallurgists tell you that "fire can't melt steel" - ignoring that fire can indeed remove the temper from steel, causing it to soften and bend.   Apparently they've never been to a forge.

FEMA Detention Camps:  Various scary videos are circulating on YouTube, purporting to show FEMA Detention Camps, or "FEMA Coffins" being prepared for the day of the apocalypse, when the government will take over and put the "brave resistors" (conspiracy theorists) into death camps for extermination.   Of course, these "death camps" are just videos of construction sites, and the "FEMA coffins" are actually burial vaults stacked up next to the factory that makes them.    But hey, why ruin a good story?

And that is the problem with conspiracy theories right there - trying to "disprove" them is pointless, as any logical argument you can make will be met with an illogical one.   Grainy photos and sensationalist headlines are "proof", while actual hard data is "just part of the conspiracy".

Conspiracy Theories are like Religion - it is a Belief System, not Science or Logic.   And you can't prove or disprove belief, which is the really neat thing about it, from the believer's point of view.   Over the years, whenever some tenet of any religion is shown to be a bunch of hooey, the religion just modifies their tenet, or says it is a metaphor for something, and they soldier on.

So don't bother wasting your time arguing with a Conspiracy Theory Nut - just run away in the opposite direction as fast as possible.   You don't want to deal with these people, as they are emotional vampires and will bring you down.   You don't want one as a co-worker, you don't want one in your family, and you certainly don't want one as a spouse.   These are scary people who will get themselves into trouble, and will likely expect you to bail them out.

You don't have to be a bloody genius to get ahead in the USA.  You just have to stop believing in Bigfoot, the Loch Ness Monster, and the idea that "Leasing a car improves your cash flow!"

Stop believing in silly nonsense, and the rest comes easily.