Several States are experiencing small population losses. Is this a trend?
Californians are not welcome in most places. A couple of decades ago, we went to visit Oregon and they rented us a car with California tags on it. "Why not just paint a target on my back?" I said. And sure enough, we were cut off and given the finger more than once, even though we were not from California and had no intention of moving to Oregon.
But the same effect was true in Colorado, Washington State, and Texas - among other States. As the Bay area became more and more expensive, semiconductor companies relocated to Boulder, Austin, and Seattle, until those locations became too expensive as well. It was not a "California" thing, but a technology thing.
In the run-up to the 2024 election, the GOP strategy is fear. Fear that the country is "going woke and going broke" and that if Democrats have their way, criminals will run rampant on main street. If Republicans have their way, criminals will run rampant through the halls of Congress. The narrative the GOP sells is that cities like San Francisco have turned into dystopian hellscapes, where only the richest 1% can afford to buy a house and that homeless people break into your car daily and assault your family while you are at work. You call the Police and they say nothing can be done - after all, the criminals are the real victims here, right? Californians are fleeing the State in droves! Well, not droves, but a trickle. But it's a really big trickle, right? And they're all moving to right-wing-friendly Florida for low taxes and low crime rates! Right?
And while there is a nugget of truth to some of this, the idea that States like Florida are crime-free low-tax havens is not only somewhat flawed, but laughably so. While there is no State income tax in Florida, the local property taxes can be onerous - in the five-figures in many instances. Insurance costs can be just as much, particularly toward the coast. You may not be saving much money moving to Florida - which is one reason we left.
And crime? Florida invented "Florida-man" - the meth-head drug addict who eats the face off some innocent passerby and finds new ways of cruelly exploiting his fellow man. Reliable and recent crime statistics are hard to come by. This interactive map claims the District of Columbia has the highest crime rate per capita, as of August 2022, while other sites claim Alaska is the crime capital of the country. Yet others point to Louisiana as the murder capital of the USA. Which is it?
Looking at all these statistics, it seems clear that California isn't some weird outlier of crime, but rather falls in line with the national average. Some States that Republicans point to as "Law and Order" are, rather in fact, lawless in comparison. The violent crime rates in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi (and the South in general) make California look relatively safe. But that doesn't fit the narrative of "Woke States are Crime-Ridden!" that the GOP likes to sell.
And as for a "flood" of people leaving California, the flood is more of a trickle. As one site notes (to exaggerate) "1 in 100" people have left the State during the pandemic, which sounds like a lot, until you realize they are adding up three years' worth of data. Annual outflow is less than a half a percent. Not so dramatic, eh? And certainly, if so many people were leaving the State, property values would be in free-fall, right?
The reality is, people move from one place to another to find jobs or live a better life. "Rust Belt" States have seen an outflow of people because there were no jobs. Today, with many people working remotely, you can live wherever you want to, and I suspect a big chunk of the people "Leaving California" still work for companies headquartered there. They are just enjoying a lower cost-of-living facilitated by living in a less-populated area where land is cheaper.
That being said, the statistics on ingress and egress are somewhat mixed. New York State has seen an increase in population in most years, other than during the pandemic. Eventually, if enough people leave and land becomes cheap enough, someone will see an opportunity and move there and establish a business. That's how Capitalism is supposed to work, right?
For example, here in Georgia, we are seeing folks moving into the State as the economy is doing OK and the cost of living is relatively cheap compared to heavily populated urban areas. Of course, no one is giving away houses in Atlanta, but the prices are lower than New York City or San Francisco - both of which are bounded by water and densely populated. Our crime rate and taxes are far lower than Florida as well. We pay 1/5th the amount of property taxes that we would pay in Florida, and unless they change the law, when I turn 66, the property taxes will drop to a few hundred a year. Beats $15,000 a year, don't it? Yea, Florida is just peachy. No pun intended.
And bear in mind that from April until October, half of Florida migrates up North to escape the staggering heat and humidity. Some fun, under the sun!
So I have to call bullshit on this. Yes, wildfires and mudslides are no fun - but then again, they have been part of the California landscape (along with earthquakes) for decades now. California is in no danger (nor is any other "Blue State") of going broke or becoming a vast, empty desolate desert. Nor are Texas and Florida a Shangri-La because they have banned "woke textbooks." In fact, that sort of nonsense, which has distracted government from real pocketbook issues, such as the staggering property tax rates and homeowners insurance rates (because politicians are in the pocket of the roofing scam) might eventually drive people away, or drive them to vote Democratic.
You can only distract people so much with a Punch and Judy puppet show, while you pickpocket them as they watch. Eventually people catch on, usually when they realize they are broke. Yes, that is the odd part - "go woke, go broke" on a personal level, turns out to be a cruel joke. Republicans are distracting voters from real pocketbook issues with "social values" issues. But eventually, people reach into their pockets and discover that while they were rooting for a book-burning, their pockets were emptied.
Can they keep up this charade until November 2024? Or will they somehow convince their followers that "Woke Democrats" were responsible for the over 200% increase in insurance costs while Republicans controlled the State government.
Anything is possible with followers dumb enough to buy "Trump Bucks" - right?
