Monday, January 15, 2024

George Carlin AI - the End of the World, or Just Shitty Comedy?

AI-generated "Claughter" (or Clapter) is no better than the real thing.

I have written about George Carlin before, and I am no (longer a) big fan. I guess when I was younger, I thought he was edgy and cool.  But decades after his "seven dirty words" bit, the fallout to society seems mixed.  Sure, we can say horrible things now - but should we?  A society that is bound only by the outer limits of the law and not some inherent sense of proper public behavior is a society doomed to fail.

Jerry Seinfeld made a career out of comedy without using expletives.  In fact, he noted more than once, and a comedian who resorts to dropping the F-bomb or other obscenities, has weak material. The Simpsons did an episode where Krusty the Klown re-invents himself as a Carlin-esque angry comedian, denouncing money and the "Corporate fat-cats" as well as Madison Avenue. Of course, like Carlin, he takes the money.  He eventually is exposed as a shill for luxury SUVs.  The Simpsons was better written back in those days.  Irony alert:  The clip above has Krusty denouncing how dead celebrites are used to promote products.  Kind of ironic in view of the AI-Carlin "comedy special."

First off, was this "Comedy Special" any good?  Well, no, on several counts.  I mean, Carlin himself wasn't really so much funny as he engaged in rants and "Claughter Comedy" where a comedian says things the audience likes to hear and people applaud.  His "comedy" was just a left-ish schtick of the current crop of claugher comics who drone on about being "Cancelled" even as they pocket a million bucks - and a million viewers for their latest Netflix special.

So no, saying "greedy politicians" and "corporate interests" are screwing you over isn't really funny, even if it were true.  True, we are being distracted all the time from what is really important in our lives.  But this is less of a corporate plot to rule humanity than the actions of billions of people who crave distractions and seek them out - since time began. So Carlin-AI (or indeed, Carlin) is covering no new ground here.  Irony alert: Carlin AI is one of the distractions it rails against!

Carlin AI's posture that politics don't matter contradicts his other statements that people allowed Trump to be elected.   The implication (or outright statement) that Democrats and Republicans are "the same" appeals to those on the far-Left as well as the far-Right, particularly the so-called "Libertarians" on the right.  Both groups can holler "shit yea!" and clap to this nonsense.   I think if Carlin were alive today and saw Roe v. Wade overturned, he wouldn't be saying "all politicians are alike."  Therein lies the problem with making dead AI avatars.  We have Carlin here endorsing Trump by proxy - encouraging young people not to vote.

Is it a convincing imitation?  Well, it isn't an animated video except in some parts where third parties are animated - badly, like most AI generated crap.  His voice is off, which some attribute to the "Sampling" including his younger appearances ("when he wore a suit").  But the voice is missing that annoying nasal tone and I only caught the gravelly cigarette voice once or twice in the set.

Was it funny?  Not really, but claughter never is.  In fact, I let out a muffled chuckle only once.  The rest of the time, it was, "well, that's interesting," or "that's probably true." or "that's plain ridiculous!"  Claiming there was "no difference" between Trump and Biden was stupid and not something I think Carlin would say.  In fact, he talked a lot about how "Corporate America" was trying to distract us with stupid entertainment, using stupid entertainment.

In addition, AI Carlin claims that the government has announced they are hoarding alien technology in Area 51 but no one noticed because they are too obsessed with Taylor Swift. Sadly, this illustrates how AI can spread misinformation. A few UFO buffs claim (and have long claimed) that the government is keeping a crashed alien spacecraft "secret" from the world. But a few Papier-mâché "mummies" do not a UFO make. It is all hyped bullshit, not an "official government pronouncement."

Then it gets worse.  AI Carlin uses their platform to inform us that we have nothing to fear from AI (right?) and it won't "take away our jobs" - and if we are worried about that, then "the man" has gotten to you.  AI Carlin also implies that there is a sort of atheist afterlife as an AI - we can all be programmed into computers and live on as avatars.

Bullshit - a language model is not alive and AI Carlin does not have consciousness nor is it any way related to the being formerly known as George Carlin.

This "comedy special" was not created by someone simply prompting ChatGTP with, "create a comedy special that George Carlin would have if he came back from the dead."  Rather, they used a series of prompts to identify certain topics and I am sure, edited the responses to get what they wanted.  The video was a series of stills and short videos created from separate prompts.  No, ChatGTP isn't eliminating writers and actors and producers entirely - many, many man-hours went into making this video.  It was not a 30-second prompt and then stand back and watch.

The video argues that AI isn't a threat, but says also that it will put stand up comics out of a job.  It kind of contradicts itself.  But the video also admits it cobbled together this material by sampling all of Carlin's recorded works.  Without source material, how would AI "train" to create new material?  When AI tries to create truly original content, all hell breaks loose and the results are the stuff of nightmares.

But all that being said, is this shitty AI model even legal?  Well, they try to get around the law by claiming it is an "impersonation" like Elvis impersonators or comedians doing impersonations of George Bush or whatever.  But I suspect that will not stand up in court.  This is a performance put on by the people (people, not AI) who created and edited it.  I've been to performances where people perform as famous artists, such as Patsy Cline.  I'm aware of others, including a group out Jacksonville called "The Pink Floyd Experience."   They not only have to pay for copyrights to the music, but in most cases, they have the blessings (and license) from the estates of dead artists (or live ones) to mimic the likeness.

So, stay tuned for the inevitable lawsuits.

I suspect that someone will propose a law that AI content should be so labeled, as to not violate FTC regs on false advertising.  Since so much of AI content sucks (because it isn't "there" yet and may never be) people will be pissed-off if they pay money to see or purchase a movie only to find out it is shitty AI content.

And yea, maybe these are early days and someday AI will be so seamless that we won't be able to tell reality from fiction - that is, moreso than today.  I hope to be safely in the grave when that happens.

But that may take a while. This "AI George Carlin" doesn't even have a face.  And when AI makes animated faces, well, they look fake.

One thing I did take away from this, though, is that rant humor (claughter) is not hard to mimic.  And it really isn't funny, either!

Sunday, January 14, 2024

Pining For The Endtimes, Part II

Why are some people rooting for the end of the world?

We were trying out the new hotspot last night and watched Tom Cruise mountaineering about the Burg Khalifa in Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol, on Pluto TV.  It was a fun amusement park ride and nothing else.  Some of the technical blunders were laughable.  Nuclear weapons air-burst for maximum destruction, so no, you can't "abort" a nuclear missile as it hits the TransAmerica pyramid.  But such explosion movies are not meant to be taken at face value.

The main plot line revolved around an antagonist who wanted to start World War III because, in his mind, it was the only way to purge humanity and start over.  It is an interesting angle, and it seems today a lot of people are pining for the zombie apocalypse or Armageddon or the second coming of Christ or the End Times or the destruction of the world, mostly because they are bored and think it will be interesting like some ultimate reality show.  And in their fantasies, they survive the apocalypse and end up better off.  The reality is, of course, two choices - a painless instant death or a slow painful death.   There is no third option.

I live about 30 miles from a major nuclear submarine base, so instant vaporization, for me!  Wheee!

I mean, I get it.  If you are stuck in a dead-end job and life seems drab and pointless, some catastrophic event sounds interesting and exciting.  Maybe civilization needs a do-over, a "reset" if you will.  And only the strong will survive!  But ask anyone who has survived a natural disaster and you realize quickly that it wasn't the strong that survived, but merely the lucky.  You can "prep" all you want, but if you are in downtown Anchorage when the bomb gets dropped, your bomb shelter in the woods isn't much use to you.  And no, your pickup truck will be vaporized along with you.  Your wife and kids who made it to the shelter in time?  Well, once they leave the shelter, they will slowly succumb to radiation sickness, if they don't starve to death first.  Bear in mind that the land and water will be poisoned for decades at least - and let's not even think about nuclear winter.  You though Alaska was cold now!

This pining for the end times might help explain some of what is going on in the world today.  End times theology is a relatively recent invention, which some people claim is basically a made-up conspiracy theory constructed of segments of Bible verse, particularly from the Book of Revelations.  Supposedly the world will end when the Jews return to Israel, and the Antichrist comes to power, followed by Jesus returning and all the "good" people - live or dead - floating up to heaven to live happily ever after.  Then, something-something horsemen of the apocalypse and wars and pestilence as the non-believers duke it out while the universe collapses.  For some odd reason, end-times Christian fan-fiction such as the "Left Behind" series, posits that some Christians don't get raptured.  Apparently an oversight on God's part.

So you see the pattern being forced onto world politics.  Evangelical Christians are suddenly reversing course 180 degrees. Jews are no longer the "Christ-killers" (well, evangelicals still think that in secret).  Rather, they are doing their part to bring on the end times by moving the capital of Israel to Jerusalem.  Too bad they will be the first to be immolated in the pillar of fire.  But, it's all part of God's plan, right?

Next, we need endless wars, famine, pestilence.  One pandemic, coming right up!  And of course, there are always endless wars in the Middle East - no wonder the far-right wanted to invade Iraq! It's all part of the prophesy!  It's in the Bible, folks!  Well, not really, but they think so.  They should have read it sometime, I think.

Now, what's left?  Oh, right, an Antichrist!  We need a guy (has to be a guy) who claims to be the second coming but is actually Satan himself.  Someone with no morals whatsoever, who is obsessed with the material, lusts after young women, and is the actual embodiment of evil.  Oh, and he has to be lauded as chosen by God by the faithful.  Who could possibly play the role of this deceiver?

Well, now you realize why evangelicals endorse Trump and claim he was anointed by God when a more Godless man does not exist.  Donald Trump fits the bill exactly.  And I think some evangelicals are "endorsing" him for the same reason they now support Israel.  They don't really care about either, other than they (force) fit into this puzzle of end times theology.

And therein lies the problem. The world isn't coming to an end - or at least it need not have to.  Religion is a bunch of hooey, in terms of predicting the future. End time theology was developed in the 18th century, not the first century.  And trying to fit current events into these prophesies has been a parlor game ever since end times theology was invented. And invented it was.

Is is like these stupid "Mayan Calendar" predictions - the world doesn't end just because some Mayan scribe got tired of writing down dates so far in the future to him that it was meaningless.   It is like the "prophesies" of Nostradamus (don't hear much about him lately, do you?) whose vague predictions are hammered to fit world events, much as a square peg can be driven into a round hole.  And if that doesn't work, others merely make up "predictions" of Nostradamus and claim they came true.

Or just say, "Simpsons predicted it!" (when in fact, they did not).

Could the world end in a nuclear firestorm?  Or an asteroid impact?  Giant solar flare boiling off half the ocean?  Zombies coming to life due to outer space rays?  Alien invasion and take over?

Maybe.  The only one that seems plausible (outside of asteroids and solar flares) is the nuclear option.  And that is an event entirely within our control.  We can avoid blowing ourselves up if we choose to, but we have to choose to, and not glamorize nuclear Armageddon as some sort of business opportunity or biblical prediction.

Sadly, it seems we are dumbing down as a society and maybe this was inevitable or by design.  Few are choosing intellect over ignorance today.  People today are "proud" to be a redneck of think that slavery wasn't so bad or that the holocaust never happened.  And don't get me started on flat earthers or UFO freaks.

What is really disappointing, though, are so-called "Christians" who are pining for the end times.  "Pro-Life" Christians who want to see billions of people incinerated and billions more die slow painful deaths, in the name of God.  This new version of Christianity is little more than a death cult - Jonestown magnified by a factor of a hundred-million or so. But like the Heaven's Gate death cult, they secretly believe they will be whisked away in time, if not by UFOs, by angels instead.

Call me crazy, but I think that God doesn't want us to immolate ourselves in his name or according to a narrative of a false prophesy. And people who pine for the end times are going against God.

Saturday, January 13, 2024

How Social Media and Reality Television Destroyed Human Relationships

Real people are so much better than false facades!

I wrote before how I ditched Facebook early on.  I noticed that people who I knew, whose lives were fairly ordinary - if not a smoldering train wreck - appeared to be fabulous on Facebook.  Their headshot or whatever they called it, showed half their face (a trend at the time - everyone copies everyone else on Facebook) which made them appear kicky and trendy.  Their status was always something cool, like "Just went rock climbing!" or "just baked this cake!" accompanied by a perfect photo of said same activity.

No one ever had their status as "chronically depressed" or "I need to clean my room" accompanied by photos of the actual squalor they lived in.

It ain't hard to make your life seem fabulous with Facebook or any social media site.  You just take 500 photos with your phone - preferably at some crowded tourist site so you annoy everyone else - and then pick the one "fabulous" photo (there is bound to be one that doesn't show your double-chin) and post it.  But it is, in a way, fake.  And of course, if the perfect photo doesn't exist, a "filter" or AI program can create one for you.  Or just show your "Avatar" instead.

Back in the day, you took pictures with your Kodak Instamatic 125 which had a tiny film strip inside.  You took that to the Fotomat booth in the parking lot of the strip mall and a week later got your "photos" back.  Maybe you might put them in an album or perhaps show them to a few friends at work.  "Hey, here's some photos of us rock climbing two weeks ago!" you say, and your friends squint to see your scowling face in those grainy tiny photos.  It was a lot more real.

Reality television is partly to blame for this trend as well.  As we now know, there is no reality in reality television.  Rather you put a dozen people on a boat or an island or in a house or whatever, and then prompt them to do things and film hundreds of hours of useless footage.  From this, you selectively edit a few minutes and then create a drama narrative. Using the same footage again and again, you can create entire seasons of "content" and make it appear that the folks all hate each other.

In contrast, the above video is of a family in Southern Utah who operate a trail recovery service - towing hapless tourists out of the wilderness after they discover their "trail-rated" Jeep is anything but.  Street tires in deep sand and mud?  Bad choice!  What is even more interesting is how these "side-by-side" ATVs come apart on the trail, breaking tie rods, ball joints, and in one case, snapping an axle off.  But I guess that means more business for this family.  What is neat about the videos is that everyone is nice to one another and treats each other with respect.  Everyone gets to drive the wrecker - husband, wife, sons and daughter.  No one is ridiculed - even and especially the customers.  And no one is waving a Trump flag or injecting politics into the video.  And the technical parts are technical, too!  But the best part is the host's self-depreciating humor, his ability to admit fault and general genial nature.  That and his affection for older Corvairs! My only critique is a slight predilection to click-bait titles.

But apparently people like to watch people argue and fight. Early on, I was excited when they came out with "reality" shows about building hot-rods or motorcycles.  I was hoping for lots of technical information and videos of "how to" and so on.  Sadly, after the first few episodes, they devolved into people throwing wrenches at each other over imagined (and prompted) slights.  Apparently folks like to watch other people argue and the trend goes on today with Tick-Tock videos of people fighting in public (physically) or doing evil "pranks" - and no one stops the fights, either, but rather whips out their phone to video it all, hoping to monetize their YouTube channel.

Speaking of which, don't bother.  If you came up with a compelling video, say, of a door plug being blown out of a 737, and posted it to your YouTube channel, it would be copied and used by channels already monetized (and used by the mainstream media as well, as "fair use") before you could start the process of monetizing your YouTube channel.  In order to monetize your YouTube channel, you must have so many views a month, which means you have to spend  your life creating content constantly, just to get started.  And then once you get started, you may find that the amount you make is, well, bubkis.

But getting back to topic, what started me on this was a posting I saw online where a guy in New Hampshire was wondering "what he was doing wrong" with his Tinder profile.  What he was doing wrong was living in a small town in New Hampshire - with a population smaller than the student body at my undergraduate Alma Mater.  But what was interesting is that his "profile" was indeed perfect in that he had the perfect photos of him doing fun things and whatnot, as well as bragging about his academic credentials (no word on work credentials, though!) as though it was a Linked-In profile (another evil site of self-aggrandizement and narcissism).

He's doing everything right - by the standards of today's social media. The problem is social media, which encourages us, nay, forces us, to present these polished versions of ourselves - versions that are too perfect and too facile. I mentioned the use of filters before and that pretty much sums it up - "influencers" who have unreal figures when "on the air" but are caught out as quite ordinary when the filter messes up for an instant.  What's wrong with being normal?

And why do we have to "sell" ourselves like we are used cars or something.  "Here's a creampuff, low miles, garage kept!  Real bargain and on sale this week!  Click here for more information!"

I mentioned before how, back in the day, people were too shy to record messages on an answering machine, thinking that doing so was too narcissistic.  Not today! Everyone is a potential star on "America's got talent!" or whatever.  Funny how we have changed in response to technology.  Today, you would be called introverted - back then, you were deemed normal.

I am so glad not to be on the dating scene, though.  And yes, the gays do this nonsense as well - probably worse than most.  You see guys at gay venues (bars, campgrounds, etc.) wandering around staring at their phones, looking for the "perfect match" on Grinder.  It is like that scene in Alien where you can see the alien creature as a red dot on your screen and track them in real-time.  As the beeping gets louder and more frequent, watch out!

People live this parallel life on the screen and "real life" never matches up to it, so they are bitterly disappointed with reality and go from one partner to another, searching for a perfection that doesn't exist.  And trust me, even if you found "Mr. Perfect" (or Ms. Perfect) you wouldn't want to date or marry them, as they would constantly remind you how lucky you are to be in a relationship with them and not vice-versa.  The "trophy wife" is no trophy!

Sadly, this trend is getting worse.  "Meta" promises us a virtual world where everyone is perfect and nothing bad ever happens.  They are running ads online showing people smashing flying balls (for exercise) while surfing in the air on magic discs, apparently flying over some national park or seashore. Given that "Meta" doesn't even have legs on its "avatars" yet, I am shocked this is not brought up to the FTC on charges of false advertising.

God forbid this "Meta" thing actually worked as advertised.  We would all descend into a virtual world and seal ourselves off from reality and each other.  Think I am exaggerating?  Look how smart phones have changed social interaction, forever, within a scant decade.

Virtual Reality combined with AI will allow us all to become lotus-eaters.  We will retreat to our underground lairs, much like the scenario described a century ago by E.M. Forster.  Already we have people believing in bullshit like flat earth and other conspiracy theories.  No one actually knows (or wants to know) how the very technology that keeps our civilization alive, actually works.  The Machine Stops.

But I don't think it will come to that, simply because human relations will break down long before the machines do.  We see this worldwide, with fertility rates dropping the fastest in Western countries where technology is more present.  Meanwhile, third-world birthrates are climbing.  In Japan, the over-70 set out-populates the under-20 set.  In Africa, the average age is 25.  It is not a matter of blacks versus whites or "the great replacement theory" but technological societies devolving into naval-gazing online and on their phones, while societies with less technology live in the real world.

This unfortunate dude in New Hampshire is just the latest casualty.  He is probably a nice guy if you met him in person, but on Tinder, well, something isn't working.  And for some reason, today, people feel they can only meet their dream date through an app.

We are being smothered by our own technology!

Friday, January 12, 2024

Teenaged Drivers

Teenage drivers are murder - in terms of insurance costs, for starters.

A reader writes, asking what to do, now that his children are teenagers and starting to drive.  He got the bill from his insurance company and it was an eye-opener!  Even if your teenaged kids don't drive, many insurance companies will raise your rates, once you have a driving-age teen or 20-something in the house.   They assume - rightly - that regardless of your protestations that the teen "isn't driving" that he or she will borrow the car on occasion.

Now, I am not an advice columnist, but I went through this when I was a teen - and my brother at the same time. Dad's insurance rates went through the roof!  He was pissed!  There was a brief period there, when my older brother and sister had moved away from home and my brother and I were too young to drive.  Mom and Dad were older, so their insurance rates went down to nothing.  It was pretty sweet while it lasted, maybe a year.

So, imagine his despair when his rates went from the lowest in the book (two late 40's married couple) to the highest (two hormonal male teenage drivers) overnight. How was he going to pay his mistress if all his money was spent on insurance?  Modern problems!

But he did make some smart moves along the way.  Today, a lot of parents believe that their children should be given cars - often brand-new cars - when they turn 16.  And of course, they have an iPhone, often the latest generation, when they start elementary school.  Remember when you weren't allowed to bring your "cell phone" to school?  When did they change that rule?  Today, a teacher is called a "Nazi" if they tell pupils to put away their phones in class.

I noted before that giving a 16-year-old a brand-new car is just idiotic.  Even more idiotic is giving a 16-year-old a brand new high-performance car.  When we lived in Northern Virginia - where people have more money than common sense - there were regular articles in the paper about tragic accidents involving novice drivers and fast cars.  I recall one where a 16-year-old girl was given a new BMW M3 cabriolet and she was driving on Route 1, South of Alexandria, with three of her friends on board.  She got one wheel off on the shoulder, over-corrected, and then swerved into oncoming traffic, hitting a mini-van full of kids, and then flipping over, ejecting her friends (no seatbelts!) and killing them all.

Some fun. A year later, almost the exact same story was told, only this time it was a young man and a Mustang.  Same result.  And parents wring their hands and say, "Oh woe is me!  What could have been done?"

But that's the modern world we live in, where kids drive themselves to school as soon as they get their license, and before then, parents drive them to and from school.  You may not believe this, but when I was a kid, the only time Mom drove you to school was when you missed the bus, and even then, you'd get a lecture the whole way about being punctual.  When school let out, there was no line of idling SUVs  waiting to pick up kids.  Today?  They have to have special pickup areas and waiting lines - and a Police Officer to direct all the traffic!  Again, when did this happen and why is it now considered "normal?"

When I was 13 and my brother turned 16, my Dad decided to buy my Mother a Vega, as it was one of the cheapest cars you could buy at the time, stripped for about $2000.  He knew that my brother would destroy it (and he did, by the time it hit 65,000 miles and he warped the head by overheating it, in classic Vega fashion).  At least, I was able to learn how to fix things, as my Brother would regularly come home late at night, and wake me up and say, "You gotta help me, I dented the car again!"  The rock panel in the front of the car got particular abuse as it was made of fiberglass.  I would fiberglass it back together and paint it and it looked new.  My parents never noticed it was missing for a week while I was sanding and painting it.

I never could get that damn thing to idle properly and only later on did I realize it was a "Hay baler" engine - long stroke and imbalanced - and would rock back and forth when idling.  GM's fix to the problem was to put in softer engine mounts.  The whole thing was a hot mess.

But Dad was smart - he knew that teenagers would wreck the car - quite literally - so there was no point in buying a "nice" car and then watching it get destroyed.   My Dad told us that we could buy our own cars if we wanted to and he would "pay for the insurance" which in retrospect, was a raw deal as he had to pay for insurance anyway.  Since we were broke teens, we went through a succession of $50 and $100 junkers, and we learned to appreciate a car that started on a regular basis.

Others felt more privileged.  I've read online, stories about teens who intentionally break their smart phones so that Dad will buy them a new one, preferably the latest-and-greatest iPhone available.  Talk about spoiled rich kids!  But even middle-class people fall into this trap.  I knew a guy at GMI who had a 1970's Pontiac - not a bad car - that he intentionally destroyed, with the logic that "Dad will buy me a new car."  And Dad did - after my friend dropped out of school and no longer qualified for the Class-A employee discount.  Of course, it was just a Monza - the reworked version of the Vega.  And no, he never got ahead in life.  Kind of sad, actually.

I think buying brand-new cars for teens is not only a stupid costly mistake, it teaches all the wrong things.  For a middle-class kid, once they graduate from college and have to pay back all those student loans, "real life" becomes a real shock.  The brand new car that "weekend Dad" gave to them and they destroyed in five years or so, is out of reach for them, on their current salary.  It isn't fair!  The system needs to be overthrown!

I think that is where a lot of this discontent among early 20-somethings comes from.  They grow up in a mini-mansion in Foreclosure Mews Estates, get a new car when they turn 16, along with the latest cell phone.  They go to Useless University and live in "Luxury Student Housing" and basically are spoiled rich kids - or at least spoiled upper-middle-class kids.  When they graduate and find out the world is not their oyster and that working for a living sucks, they feel cheated somehow.  Life in high school and college was sweet!  Everything they owned was new!  And now it is all worn out and they are broke all the time and "Sallie Mae" is at the door with a baseball bat, demanding to be repaid.

Say, there's an idea - instead of buying your kid a brand-new car, spend that money on college tuition so he doesn't have to pay back the money in student loans.  And maybe last year's phone isn't all that much a burden?  And maybe you don't need to spend thousands on an iMac?  Nah, that's radical thinking!

I wrote before about a young man I met who wanted to go back to college to get a Master's degree.  Bear in mind that back in the day, getting an advanced degree was a rare thing.  Today, college is the new High School and a Master's degree is the new college.  Everyone is going!  The reason he wanted to go back, though, wasn't that he wanted to pursue an academic career or qualify for a better job, but because he missed college - it was so much fun.  His parents had co-signed a loan for a new car and now it was five years old!  If he went back to college, he could get a ton of student loan money and maybe the 'rents would co-sign on another new car.  After all, you need a reliable car to get to class!

Right. That. When I was in High School, only Seniors were allowed to drive to school.  When my Brother was at SU, Freshmen and Sophomores were not allowed to have cars on campus.  Not only was there no place to park, it was thought that having a car on campus was a distraction from your studies.  Well, all that changed!  Everyone drives.  Everyone texts.  Often at the same time.

I don't think my young friend went back for his Master's but his experience illustrates what I am talking about.  When you are "spoiled" in your High School and College years, well, your early 20's seem to suck really badly.  Well, unless of course, your parents are really rich - then you can be depressed for life!  I recounted before how one of my bosses kept his children - all in their 30's - as pampered pets.  He paid their rent, he bought them brand-new cars.  I sat in his office while he took a call from his "princess" daughter and he tried to explain to her that no, a two-year-old car is not "worn out" and she would just have to wait another year or two before he bought her a new one!

Me, sitting there, struggling with car payments, was not amused.  But then again, I wasn't chronically depressed, either, and I didn't have to call my Dad for money every month.  Freedom is worth paying for.

But getting back to topic - my brother seized the engine on the Vega because he had this weird belief that if a gauge or warning light showed low oil pressure or overheating, then the gauge must be broken.  That was his go-to, to assume the instrument in question wasn't reading properly.  Alas, his theory was never proven true in his lifetime.  What's worse was that the Vega had an alarmingly small radiator and also a tendency to warp its heat if it ever overheated.  So the motor seized and that was that.

Dad decided that maybe leasing the next car would be smart.  His thinking was that the kids would wreck it, of course (and my brother indeed, did) but the leasing company would take the hit. Leasing companies aren't stupid and when the battered and beaten Dodge Aspen wagon was turned in at the end of the lease, well, there were more than a few "back-end charges" in addition to excess mileage.  So I don't think that idea worked as well as the Vega plan.

I have heard from other parents who took a different approach.  Three or four years before their next child reaches driving age, they buy a car for their own use - something boring and practical like a station wagon or a minivan - underpowered and fairly safe.  By the time the child reaches driving age, well, it is a serviceable used car, suitable for carrying stuff to and from college.  The only downside to this approach is that teens are tempted to put all their friends into a multi-passenger car, which can lead to trouble as well.

Mark's Dad refused to buy Mark as Honda Civic CRX when he went to college, as it was just a two-seater.  He knew that someone would try to "ride" in the hatch (as they did in a friend's Escort EXP - remember those?).  That sort of thing is indeed dangerous.  I recounted before how a teenage friend was severely injured when she and a half-dozen friends piled into the back of a Vega wagon which their drunk friend ran into a tree.  The driver was killed, but it was hours before the car was discovered and ambulances could take them all to the hospital.  Of course, back then, no one wore seatbelts, anyway.

Another reader told me that "back in the day" (the early 2000's) he would buy his kids old 1990's GM A-body station wagons, which were mid-sized and had fake wood on the sides.  Boring, cheap, fairly indestructible - and will hold a whole dorm room of furniture as well.  And since they were "paid for" in cash, well, the insurance was limited to just liability, cutting insurance costs in half.

And right there is the key. Collision insurance for teenage drivers is murder, simply because the insurance companies realize they will pay out at least one collision claim, withing a few years of driving, on average.  If you can avoid collision insurance and buy a cheaper "paid-for" car, well, you can really save a lot of dough.   Of course, this was easier to do back when a reliable used car could be had for a few grand.  Today, high-mileage junkers are selling for ten grand or more, which is ridiculous.  The so-called "car shortage" is over!  But the car-makers are addicted to it and want those salad days to go on forever.

Traffic tickets are another area where teenage driving costs can spiral out of control.  I was blissfully unaware how much a simple traffic ticket can jack your rates - and how three of them make them astronomical.  It got so bad that my Dad had me get a license in New Jersey, claiming that I was living at my Grandmother's house (that was about the time I went away to school, and shortly thereafter I got a Michigan driver's license).  Of course, not having learned my lesson the first time, I got more tickets down the road and discovered firsthand, how expensive insurance can be.

Today, I drive the speed limit and have a "clean" license and pretty low insurance rates (I would hate to see high ones, today!).  Maybe if Dad was more forthcoming about the actual dollar costs, I might have slowed down a bit.  But of course, I learned to drive from my parents, who rolled stop signs, sped everywhere, never wore seatbelts, and tailgated like mad.  Dad had his own share of traffic tickets and wrecks as well.  Apple didn't fall far from the tree!  If only I could go back in time - but you can't.  And trying to advise a teenager is like talking to a wall.  It was so great, being younger and blissfully thinking I knew everything!  Today, I doubt everything.

The point is (getting back to topic) there are strategies to minimize the costs of teenage drivers.  Sadly, these are strategies that will be met with fierce resistance by..... teenagers.  However, I think if you have some sort of spoiled teen living in your house, demanding a new car and a new iPhone, that the cost of insurance may be the least of your problems.  Some kids care more about what their friends think about them than the family finances.  Sadly, this is often the result of parents not talking to their kids about money, from an early age - which I can tell you from experience, is doing them no favor!

So maybe you can kill two birds with one stone by buying your teen a "paid-for" workable used car - or having them pay for their own - but more importantly having a frank discussion about how insurance costs can be crippling for a young driver, particularly after a few tickets or an accident.  You have to plan in advance, and have such a discussion long before that driver's test.  If  your kid is a spoiled brat, expecting the best of everything in the world, well, you might get push-back! 

Which is why I'm glad I'm not a parent.  Kids are so cute until they reach puberty - then all hell breaks loose!

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Why Upgrades are a PITA!

New Computer, New Car, New Phone - expect to waste many man-hours on learning how to use it!

When I worked in industry and in government and at law firms, I dreaded system upgrades.  "We have a new computer network, and everyone should report at 8:00 AM for system training!" they said.  "How long does this take, an hour?" I asked.  "No, it is all day! for the whole company!"

Do the math on that.  Even a small firm of 100 people, that's 800 man-hours wasted on training. And yea, maybe these system upgrades are essential now and then.  Or maybe Larry in purchasing got a free trip to Aruba from the salesman, in exchange for pushing this soon-to-be-obsolete system on our company.  We may never know!

Well, I know.  When I worked at GM, I had a roommate who was a purchasing agent for the plant.  Around Christmastime, we would come back to the apartment to see piles of gifts against the front door.  "To Nate, with thanks, Acme Industrial Supply!" one card read.  "Merry Christmas Nate!" said another.  Attached was a bottle of fine Scotch or a new boombox or even a portable television set.  Nate's predecessor was fired for taking cash.  Act shocked - this is how the world works, at least some of the time.

So all this time is lost to "upgrading" which is why I dread it.  I ordered the Lithium-Ion battery pack for the buggy and part of me is excited to do the install and whatnot, while part of me dreads the part where it doesn't work and I spend a day troubleshooting.

For example, today.  I ordered a new 5G hotspot - a Netgear Nighthawk 6M - which I actually bought used on eBay for a couple hundred bucks.  The old hotspot seemed "slow" and the battery was puffing out (a sign you need a new battery).  So we pulled the pin on 5G and thought maybe it would work better.

It might - it has external antenna inputs and I ordered the accessory antennas.  We'll see if that makes it faster.  For now, the bottleneck is the speed of the cell service we have. About 12MIPS down, 2MIPS up - enough to stream video seamlessly most of the time.

But the guy I bought it from shipped it with the wrong battery.  I contacted him through eBay and no response - yet.  A replacement battery is like $15 but it is the principle of the thing.  However, I learned that the hotspot will work without the battery and will go into "6" mode (whatever that is) which is supposedly faster.  Mark's phone shows this, my old phone does not.

And our tired old C655 Toshibas still use the 2.4GHz WiFi bandwidth or whatever, so you have to run the hotspot in dual band mode.  My laptop logged into it with no problem.

But Mark's did not.  I spent the day trying to figure out why. In a way, it was instructive as I went through all the screens on the hotspot and read the entire user manual (88 pages) that I had downloaded and put in a binder (of course).  Still no joy.  I tried unplugging and rebooting.  I checked the settings against my computer and the only difference was that I was using a circa 2010 driver and Mark had 2012 and 2014 versions of the drivers on his machine.

His WiFi was showing WiFi from my phone and Mark's as well as the neighbors houses down the street, so it was getting WiFi but not from the new Hotspot. I rummaged around in my drawer full of Toshiba parts and found a spare motherboard and REALTEK wireless LAN card.  So I removed the keyboard from Mark's machine and swapped out the LAN cards.  Reboot and.... no joy.

On a hunch, I took an old CD-ROM and burned the LAN drivers from my HDD backup.  I had downloaded these a while back (for the entire machine) when I created these three Franken-laptops from the parts of four that I had (hence the drawer of leftover parts).  I had to uninstall the LAN card and erase both the 2014 and 2012 drivers from Mark's machine.  Now the leap of faith.  Windows is showing an "unknown device" and asking me for the drivers.  I put in the CD-ROM and the 2010 driver installs.

And.... we have joy.  I am not sure if the newer drivers somehow refused to recognize the 2.4GHZ channel on the hotspot, or if the drivers were somehow corrupted.  All I know is, it works.  And oddly enough, it seems to be working faster (Mark's machine always seemed slow online for some reason).

On problem with Windows is that when you click on "update driver" it just checks the date of your driver to see if it is the latest version.  If your driver is corrupted, well, nothing changes.  I find it highly doubtful that both the 2012 and 2014 drivers were corrupted (I tried both using "rollback").  It seems the "upgraded" driver was missing something these antique laptops craved.

But this illustrates the problem with "upgrades" - you spend hours setting up new equipment and days learning how to use it.  What is really frustrating is when you learn about a feature - on your phone, for example - only months or years after you bought it.  "Gee, I'm ready to throw this POS away and just found out now it has this cool feature!"  It is like my friends who complained for years their Mercedes tailgate was hard to close - until I pointed out the auto-close button on the bottom.  Easy-peasy!  It pays to be handy.

It remains to be seen if this new hotspot works better than the old one.  I suspect when we get into an area with better cell service (while traveling) it may provide us with faster service.  And the antenna options are many, including magnetic car-mounts (N/A with aluminum-body pickup trucks!) or even aerials that go on a pole or something.

The new Lithium-Ion battery pack and smart charger is supposed to arrive next week. So more frustrating (and rewarding) days ahead, I guess!

UPDATE:  I bought some external antennas for the hotspot and they made the signal strength worse than before!  Fortunately they were only a few dollars.  The hotspot was disconnecting from AT&T on occasion and after reading the help forum on AT&T I decided to try disabling the Ethernet connection (cat-5 cable) since we are using WiFi.  Most of the people reporting problems on the help site were trying to use the hardwired solution.  Well, anyway, it has been a week now and no disconnects!  Also, 5G service - streams video much better (for the most part)!  The replacement battery arrived as well - and that seems to help, too.