EV sales are down - or up - depending on how you look at it.
I saw this chart online and it was accompanied by text proclaiming that Tesla sales are "cratering." Even if we assume the data is correct (and nothing on the Internet is ever a lie or just AI-generated crap!) the "meme" overstates the case quit a bit.
The first thing to notice is that they are comparing sales from the first quarter of 2024 with the first quarter of 2023. This is a common gag in the auto-journalist business as they argue that car sales are seasonal (which they can be) and thus comparing the same quarter to that of the year prior is valid. However, this technique doesn't take into account other things, such as the overall economy slowing down (or speeding up) - factors out of the control of any one company.
Funny thing, too, as "Auto Journalists" (which are now auto-mated, apparently) are all-too-willing to compare, say, the fourth quarter of 2023 with the third, if it makes Tesla look bad - or good - depending on what they set out to prove in the first place.
The second thing to notice is that while Tesla sales may be "cratering" they still sell (in America) more EVs than all other makers combined. If that's a "crater" it's one helluva nice one. They are still Number 1 in the EV market, by a wide margin.
The third thing is that Ford sold over a half-million vehicles in Q1 2024, and that is just one company. The EV market is still a tiny slice of the overall car and truck market in the US. Teslas seem to be "everwhere" only because, like VW Beetles in the early 1960s, they were so noticeable compared to the rest of the vehicle population. I was passed by a "Cybertruck" on the causeway the other day (he was doing 50 in a 25 zone and cut me off - Tesla drivers are the new BMW drivers!) and the only reason I remember it was that I was temporarily blinded by the sheer ugliness of the damn thing. If it had been a Ford or Chevy or Ram, I would have forgotten about it in five minutes.
So, we are talking about a tiny market share here when talking about EVs. Yet the incel simping neckbeard stans have bid up the price of the Tesla "meme stonk" to the point where it's "market cap" is greater than companies making five times more vehicles and greater profits. But as we know, "market cap" only reflects what the chumps paid for the last share sold, and doesn't reflect the real value of the company - or indeed, anything.
Tesla is due for a reckoning in its share price and place in the auto world. The cars have not been updated for many years and newer designs from mainstream automakers look and feel more modern. Tesla's latest creation, the "cybertruck" is the butt of jokes - and has been compared (unfavorably) to the Pontiac Aztec, which in its defense, had a hatchback tent that actually worked and sold for a few hundred dollars, as compared to a few thousand.
Musk's "pay package" has basically gutted Tesla like a fish - taking away billions of dollars in capital that could have been used to fund new R&D but instead is being set ablaze on the dumpster fire that is Twitter.
But that's just the sideshow. EV sales were destined to tank after a while, once the "early adopters" who were willing to pay top-dollar for a Tesla already bought one. To make EVs work, in a real-life sense, you need a charging station near your home or in your home or at your place of work. While the charging network has expanded considerably, the average middle-class or lower-middle-class person living in an apartment doesn't have access to a charging station or, in many cases, even a guaranteed parking space.
People have noted before that the idea of home solar and home charging stations (once the backbone idea behind Tesla, with its acquisition of Solar City) only works for people who own their own home, plan on staying there for quite a while, and have disposable income to spend on these things. A friend of mine (recently deceased) put a set of leased solar panels on his house. He also cooked up his own diesel fuel in his back yard. He was a tinkerer and hobbyist and could afford these things.
He sold the house long before he died and the word is, the new owner wasn't too keen on the solar panels. Something went awry with the system (most likely the inverter circuitry) and the quoted cost to repair is was far, far more than the benefit of charging back into the grid, particularly now that Georgia Power only pays wholesale rates to home solar users, for surplus electricity. I wonder if this is an isolated incident or a trend. Already, home solar installs have fallen off a cliff due to higher interest rates and decreased rates for buying back excess power.
Could the same happen to EV sales? Overall, as the chart above shows, EV sales are up (except for Tesla). There are reports that some EV owners (as many as 46%?) trade-in their EVs - for one reason or another - for an IC-engine car. Hertz dumped 20,000 EVs - mostly Teslas - in favor of IC engine cars. For the rental market, you want a mid-level Camry which any idiot can drive without a half-hour of training. Hertz's sale of 20,000 Teslas may explain the dip in Tesla sales.
No matter how you slice it, though, the EV is a product of left-wing thinking. You can't be a global-warming denier and sell EVs. You can't decry government subsidies on your social media site and then rake them in with your EV factory. It makes no sense at all to be right-wing and the largest maker of EVs in the world (at least for a time). Could that explain why Musk is apparently trying to destroy his own company? He is like a teenage alt-right follower tearing down his Bernie Sanders poster from his bedroom wall, only to replace it with a MAGA sign. Go far enough left, you end up right.
All that being said, the chart above hardly shows a "cratering" in Tesla sales. It could, however, be a foreshadowing of things to come, both for Tesla and the EV market as a whole,
My take? The car market in the USA circa 1910 was dominated by super-expensive automobiles for the very wealthy. The "Three P's" - Peerless, Packard, and Pierce-Arrow were the epitome of automobile luxury and technology. Then came the Model T, Chevrolet, and then the model A - inexpensive cars not designed to last a lifetime, but a few scant years. Only Packard survived the depression and even then, just barely, By the end of the 1950's, it was gone as well. The lifespan of many a company is measured only in a scant few decades - and pioneers are often kicked under the bus.
I suspect there will be a shakeout in the EV business in short order. In order to expand to a greater market, EVs need to not only meet gas engine cars in price, but beat them. If government mandates for fuel economy and emissions are to be met, the mainstream automakers will have to sell a lot of EVs, and that means expanding the market beyond the stans and simps. When an EV costs less than a IC engine car, the middle-class will be more likely to buy them.
And there is no reason why an EV can't cost less - just take away stupid screen shit that no one wants or needs, or blindingly fast 0-60 times that just waste range. When you get down to it, an EV is not more complicated than an IC-engine car, it is simpler.
It should be cheaper, too!
