I noted in my last posting that Hillary was leading in the polls prior to election day 2016. She lost. But in her defense, she won the popular vote. This time around, it appears that not only did Trump win the electoral college, but the popular vote as well. This leaves a lot of people scratching their heads looking for an explanation. I think it is not one thing, but a host of small things that the GOP took advantage of, to win.
1. The Candidate(s): Joe Biden ran as a one-term President. Then he changed his mind. Then he changed his mind again, and Kamala was anointed his successor, only weeks before the convention. Whatever your political views are, this is a unique series of events in US History - as unique as a President being voted out of office - and voted back in again. And no, Donald Trump is no Grover Clevelend - he's much fatter!
Kamala was not my first choice, but rather a "Not Trump!" candidate. Some argue that was all she was and didn't have a platform of her own. This was not true, but as we shall see, the Democrats made the fundamental mistake of letting the opposing party define you. Once you go along with that, you are toast.
2. Democrats Fall In Love, Republicans Fall In Line: It is an old saying and it is true - Republicans have a "what's in it for me?" attitude, whether their issue is abortion, the economy, lower taxes, jobs, immigration or whatever. So long as the candidate gives them something they want, the overlook other issues which they believe don't affect them. So they will go along with the party line and vote obediently.
Democrats, on the other hand, seem to want a candidate who reflects all of their values without exception. And we saw this on the far-left, which, encouraged by Russian Internet trolls, claimed they would not vote for Biden (and later Harris) unless the Democrats gave in to a laundry list of far-left demands. The fact that Trump will give them nothing, didn't seem to faze them.
In fact, some were cheering on a Trump victory. As in 2016, many of the "Bernie Bros" voted for Trump, hoping the country would fall into collapse and thrust Bernie into the oval office. Yes, people actually think this way and there is historical precedent for it. Communists in Germany, for example, hoped that they would win in the end as people turned away from fascism. I guess that sort of happened, at least in East Germany. But usually what happens is the other side wins and then puts you in jail.
3. Palestine: Harris had to walk a tightrope on Israel and Palestine. If she came across as too sympathetic to the plight of civilians in Palestine, she risked offending some Jewish voters in swing States. On the other hand, if she came across as too pro-Israel, she risked offending Arab voters.
In Dearborn, Michigan, a largely Muslim community today, Joe Biden won in 2020 with 80% of the vote, according to NPR this morning. Harris lost to Trump 41% to 31%. Jill Stein, who actually visited the city, scored an amazing 18% of the vote. This time around, third parties didn't appear to be "spoilers" as in the past, but rather "none of the above" (as in Utah) or not voting was what turned the tide.
And the optics were horrible. Some pro-Palestinian protesters were seen lauding Hamas and Hezbollah, as if they were legitimate political parties and not terrorist organization. Again, people - and Republicans in particular - vote with their own self-interest in mind. And to a majority of Americans, the math is simple: Israel hasn't blown up a disco or pushed a man in a wheelchair off a cruise ship. Hamas and the PLO and Hezbollah have killed Americans, while Israel hasn't. Like it or not, this means Americans see Israel as "the good guys" and Palestinians as the bad.
As an added bonus, many fundamental Christians believe the end times are upon us (and Trump certainly fits the bill as the Antichrist!) and see the Middle East in this context of prophesies foretold. They actually want world war three to break out in Israel as they believe it was set forth in Revelations. Plus, I guess, they don't mind seeing a lot of Jews killed. Yes, they are pro-Israel and yet, antisemitic. Not the brightest bunch.
4. The Youth Vote That Wasn't: A lot was bet on young people, some just coming of age, voting for Harris. And many did. Many did not and many more simply didn't vote. The GOP has done a good job of dumbing down education and Trump sure loves his "poorly educated" voters. But even those of good education and high intelligence, the voting record is poor.
Even during the Vietnam War, when the "what's in it for me?" crowd had a big dog in the fight, many young people saw voting as a scam or not worth doing. In fact, the riots at the 1968 convention (because Humphrey wasn't anti-war enough) only insured a Nixon victory. Again, since they can't get everything they want, they will insure that everyone gets the exact opposite.
Recent research suggests that the human brain doesn't fully develop - mature - until about age 25. This is why we send 18-year-olds off to fight our wars and not 30-somethings who know better. My own experience is this was the exact age I gave up drugs and alcohol, finished my Engineering degree, started my career and went to law school. Prior to that, I was just a big, goofy kid (and am regressing back to that as we speak).
Young men in particular are very susceptible to peer pressure and influence. Joe Rogan Bros are a case in point. That is, if they vote at all - voting is so gay - right?
Among young leftists, the problem is worse. They are too young to understand that idealism is fine and all, but sometimes - most times - you have to settle for what is possible. "Politics is the art of the possible" according to Otto von Bismark. Wrong guy but he had the right idea. Compromise is one of those things you learn after age 25 when you realize that while the world is not an ideal place, it still is pretty decent, if you don't obsess about perfection.
Whatever the reason, the youth vote for Harris wasn't enough to turn the tide and relying on the youth vote is a bad idea for any campaign.
5. Race and Gender: One issue you didn't see the Democrats raising this time was the fact we might have a "woman President." I still have a refrigerator magnet that the Hillary campaign sent me that says "Madam President" - celebrating the novelty of it all. This time around, only Republicans harped on race or gender, with Trump famously making his "she turned black" comments.
Republicans knew they could afford to piss off minorities as, well, they are minorities and white people still make up 70% of the country. But even then, there are minorities who don't consider themselves minorities but will be in for a rude awakening pretty soon. I noted before how my friends from Latin America were insulted if you suggested their ancestry was anything other than 100% Spanish. Even the head of the "Proud Boys" white supremacy group is of afro-cuban ancestry. He doesn't realize that people named "Enrique" are not allowed in the Country Club, except through the servants' entrance.
Some people call this the "pick me!' mentality. People like this believe that when racist or misogynist slurs are being bandied about, they are not talking about them but rather those others who of course, are bad. The far-right has another term for them, "the people we kill last!" (as was applied to Yanni Yapalapalopalous).
6. They Go Low, We Go High: This was Hillary's strategy and it backfired in a big way. Study after study shows that negative ads work which is why politicians use them. Willie Horton ads and Swiftboating were abhorrent, but they worked to elect Bush and his son. No one even remembers the names of their opponents.
Online, we saw ads for Trump claiming Harris was a "border czar" who personally let in millions of "illegal immigrants." Of course, no such "border czar" position exists. Vice Presents attend State funerals overseas and act as a tie-breaking vote in the Senate. Period.
The Kamala ads were upbeat and positive and fizzled out. Tax cuts for the middle class! Tax the rich! It sounded much more vague than Trump's false promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime and "protect" Social Security. Trump is the friend of the working man! /s
What I would have liked to see is Harris fighting back in an ad using the same ominous voice the GOP uses in their ads, pointing out that Biden got a bi-partisan bill ready for Congress and had the votes to pass it, but it was Trump who killed the deal. And Trump is a liar and who wants to vote for a liar?
There was mountains of "negative" to use against Trump - often in his own words! Democrats used none of it. They wanted to be above the fray, I guess.
And I guess Harris, like Hillary, had no choice. A man using attack ads to get elected is being decisive and bold. A woman doing the same thing is a whiny harpy. And it ain't just men saying that - a lot of women, secretly or otherwise, believe the same thing.
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So, where does this leave us? Will project 2025 be enacted? Will Trump slap tariffs on imports and start a trade war with China (raising prices through the roof and destroying our export economy)? We'll see.
I wonder sometimes if the Democrats wanted to lose. The last decade or two have been a repeat of the same two decades 100 years ago. We had an epidemic back then, a war, and then a booming economy that seemed to grow for no organic reason. Everyone was trading stocks, the rich got richer while the working classed got screwed. In 1929, it all came crashing down at once. And Herbert Hoover pushed through the Smoot-Hawley tariff act of 1930 which put the nail in the coffin of a dying economy.
Could the same thing happen again? Maybe Democrats saw the writing on the wall and realized if they won, they would inherit a major recession. Let Trump win, and he has to "own" it - and make it far worse with his half-assed economic proposals. By 2028, maybe Americans will be finally fed up with "tax cuts for the rich" and "trickle-down economics" and vote Democratic.
Maybe. But by then there may not be another election. Besides, that smacks of the Bernie Bros methodology - tear down the system to change it. That rarely works without a lot of suffering involved.
Meanwhile, Mr. See is bombarding me with brochures and books on how to live the ex-pat life in Panama or Portugal or Catalonia... There is a transitioning cruise on Holland America to Portugal in April, and the Condo is up for sale.
Stay Tuned!
