Monday, March 24, 2025

Weird eBay Experience!

You know you are old when you see this on a survey site.

I tried to buy a sink on eBay the other day.  We have a tiny sink in the camper in the corner of the "wet bath."  It is made of plastic, and is about 8" by 12" in size and cracked.

Our sad little plastic sink.

I had replaced the faucet but still it looked like crap. We had a similar sink in the Casita that cracked and I recall finding an oblong corner sink in stainless at the time (online) but never got around to ordering it.  So I searched online for "RV corner sink stainless" and got dozens of listings for this sink below.  I went on eBay and there were literally hundreds of identical listings for the same sink.

Nice sink, but it wouldn't fit in our camper!

Problem is, it is a symmetrical corner sink, and I need an oblong one.  What was weird to me was that eBay was flooded with listings for this sink, and it was all I could find on Google.  Google thinks that once you click on one thing, that is all you ever want.  So you click on one "MAGA" site and that's all you hear forever and ever, amen!  Ditto for the Democrats - I am still getting texts and e-mails, several a day, pleading for money from a candidate running for dogcatcher in South Dakota - who has zero chance of winning, by the way.

But I digress.

I kept searching and searching, setting eBay to load 100 listings at a time and scrolling through hundreds of listings of this stainless steel sink before I found anything different.  I saw this nice sink on eBay made of ceramic and bought it.  It came in two sizes, one 8x14 and another 10x18.  The listing showed them in left-hand and right-hand options, so I selected the smaller size, right-hand option.

Classy sink!

Once again, I find hundreds of listings for this same sink, mostly in the larger size.  Why are there so many listings for the same item?  Are they trying to SPAM the system so you buy their product - by drowning out other listings?  I see this a lot on eBay - a listing for an item with the notation "only two left!" but dozens of listings elsewhere with the same item, similarly notated.

The right-hand model as selected. 

So I ordered it and it arrived by FedEx in three days!  But when I opened the box, my heart sank.  The sink was left-handed, not right-handed as shown in the listing and there was no faucet.  I re-read the listing and it said "includes faucet drain" which I thought meant faucet, but they meant the drain pipe.

The seller had contacted me when I ordered, with a long-winded e-mail addressed to "Dearest" so you know it was from China (well, that and all the stray Chinese characters in the listing).  All the listings for all these sinks are poorly worded and full of stray characters.  The language is often vague ("This is best sink!") and short on details ("See photos!").

So I contacted the seller and asked about the faucet and told them it was reversed.  They replied they didn't sell faucets and the "faucet drain" language was an error.  They also admitted that the smaller size sink was not available in the right-hand configuration and that was also an error in the listing.  They offered me a $14 refund if I would keep the sink.

But of course, I don't need a left-hand sink, I need a right one.  So I told them that, and over the period of a few days (their messages always coming at 11:00 PM EST) the offers of refunds increased to $20, then $28, and so on until they reached $50.  They begged me not to return the item as it would cost them "eBay points" or something.  I filed a return request and told them I would rather return the item for a full refund and they could re-sell it.  They refunded my money and told  me to keep the sink!

I found another sink, right-hand orientation, open box, from a surplus seller, minus all the mounting hardware.  I found the faucet online for $25. So I ordered both.  I left positive feedback for the original seller on eBay as I thought they were very decent to me, even though their listing was poorly done and they sent me the wrong sink.

But here's where it gets weird.

I e-mailed the original seller and told them I was not comfortable keeping the sink and asked if they wanted it back and that I would pay for the postage.  They refused but asked me for my e-mail address (we had been communicating through eBay), which I ignored.  They asked again and again and said they wanted to send me a "free gift" for being such a nice person.  The free gift was a MIG welder worth over $100!  I got very suspicious about this!

Free MIG welder?  What does this have to do with sinks?

Why does he need my e-mail address to mail me a MIG welder anyway?  Why, after giving a full refund of $58 does he want to throw over $100 worth of merchandise at me?  I don't get it, but it sounds too-good-to-be-true and we know how that works.

Perhaps just selling my e-mail address?  Trying to debit my PayPal account? (good luck with that, there is only $14 in it and no credit card or bank linked to it).  Trying to debit Zelle?  I don't know.  Maybe it is legit and the shipper wants an e-mail address?  Sounds implausible.

Years ago, I would have loved to have a MIG welder, but my days of welding things (or wanting to) are far behind me.  It just struck me as weird.

Then eBay sent me a "survey" request about the transaction and I filled it out, noting that the seller was communicating well and offered refunds and gave a full refund.  At the end of the survey were a series of demographic questions, including asking which of five genders I was, and my age....

.....the latter of which stopped me in my tracks.  I am now the "65+" box and there ain't no box after that.  So long as I was in the "50-65" I could kid myself that death was a long way off.  And the "26-49" range?  I will live forever!  But such is not the case.

65+

Boy does that sting!


* * *


Here is the actual conversation with the seller. I cut and pasted this and for some reason the text was rotated 180 degrees (???) So I had to go in and manually edit 30 different formatting commands from "rotate -180" to "rotate 0".   Still the messages are in reverse order - scroll down to the end and read upwards, sort of like Twitter BlueSky.



8:01 PM
That is too generous! But thank you for the kind gesture!
8:00 PM
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May I know your email? I would like to give you a free set of this product as a gift​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‌‍‍‍‌‍‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‌‍‌‌‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
7:03 PM
You are very kind. I left positive feedback on ebay. I finally found the right hand sink as an open box item from another seller. I really really like the sink!https://www.ebay.com/itm/296504515293
6:59 PM
No need, I'll give you the sink as a gift. Can you do me a favor? I would like to know your email address​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‌‍‍‍‌‍‍‍‍‍‌‌‌‌‍‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‍‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
6:00 PM
Mar 23, 2025
Thank you for the full refund! I will gladly send you back the sink and even pay the postage. Let me know what address to send it to! You have been very nice!
2:48 PM
I will refund you $40 and keep the product. Do you think it's okay?​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‍‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
7:57 PM
Mar 19, 2025
0
Here is a picture of the sad little sink I have in my camper. Your sink would have been so much better but it's not the right kind cuz it doesn't have the holes on the right side. I will do a return through eBay.
9:26 AM
OK, This can also be doneWould you be willing to keep him for a refund of half for you? You can sell or use it in the second-hand market, which is a very cost-effective price. We only have one stock of this product, and if it's sold out, we won't sell the sink anymore because the shipping cost is expensive and it's prone to damage during transportation. This is our last sink, and we will refund you $28. Would you like to keep it?​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
8:27 PM
It is very late here and I have to go to bed. I'll send you a photo tomorrow. I was really looking forward to installing the sink! It makes me very sad that it didn't fit and that the correct model is not available.
8:25 PM
Wouldn't it be cheaper to just ship the unit back to you for a full refund? I appreciate your generous offer but I would still be out $40 and stuck with the sink I can't use. I'll send you a picture of where I want to install it and you'll see why it won't work. It's reversed from the way it should be. The only reason I bought it from you was that you were the only Merchant who offered the right hand model with the faucet hole on the right.
8:24 PM
Do you think it's okay to refund you $20? I'm sorry, I understand that you just wanted to buy the right product. It was my fault. Can you forgive me?​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌‍‍
8:18 PM
I'm not sure why I should have to pay for an error on your part
8:16 PM
It is a beautiful product, I just want to buy the right one.
8:15 PM
It was an error in our link and graphic display. In reality, we only have the product you received​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‌‍‍‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‌‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
8:13 PM
Why did your listing show that the right hand hole was available? There was even a selection icon for the two different sizes and left and right orientations. I am very confused by this.
8:12 PM
There are no other styles available, our product only has this one. We apologize for the inconvenience​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
8:11 PM
Do you have the correct sink in stock? With the faucet hole on the right hand side? I still want to buy the sink but I want to buy the right one. Please advise.
8:10 PM
I know, this is our display error. I will immediately go to the factory to rectify this issue​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‌‌‍‌‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
8:10 PM
Dear my friend,Hello, the return label for this product is USD17.94 . We are willing to refund you USD18 and you do not need to return the items. Do you think this is a feasible solution? You can sell it in the second-hand market. It's difficult to do business now, and we don't have any profit left. Your understanding and support will be appreciated, thank you.Of course if you have other ideas, you can discuss with us and we will try our best to meet your requirement.Please do not open return first, because eBay will deduct our points. Thank you for your understanding and support.If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us and we will reply within one working day.Looking forward to your reply.Thank you!​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‌‍‍‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‍‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
8:09 PM
I mean the faucet hole on the right. I understand you don't sell the faucet.
8:08 PM
Can I just return this and get the one with the correct orientation? I really like the product but it's not going to work if it's reversed
8:06 PM
This model does not include faucets, dear. Our manufacturer does not produce faucets​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‍‌‌‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
8:06 PM
Why did the listing ask me to select a left or right orientation? Do you not sell the one in the other orientation? The picture shows it with a faucet on the right. Do you sell one like this?
8:05 PM
Mar 18, 2025
Yes, the graphic designer is not very skilled. I can refund you $14. Would you be willing to keep the product?​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‍‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‍‍‌‌‌‍‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
8:04 PM
I'm confused. Your listing shows the sink offered in both left and right orientations. Does it not come in both directions?
8:02 PM
Hello, dear buyerSorry for the inconvenience caused. We do not sell faucets, and the orientation of the basin may be a visual issue. We can refund you $10 and you can keep the product. Do you think that's okay?best regardsNICO ​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‍‌‌‍‍‌‌‌‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
8:01 PM
Mar 18, 2025
listing sink.png
I received the sink today. There are two problems.But first, let me thank you for your kind communication. Also, the shipping by FedEx was very fast! And the packaging was excellent. Heavy cardboard, lots of Styrofoam, and even a little knit bag for the drain pipe which was a big surprise - heavy bronze with a ceramic head. Very, very nice!But, I thought I ordered the "direction right" model with the faucet on the right. I even checked this twice, as when I clicked on "direction right" it showed the faucet on the right. The one you sent has the faucet hole on the left and that won't work in the confined space of my RV.Also, the listing says "with faucet drain" which I thought meant it came with the faucet shown as well as the drain. This seems to be an error in translation. In English, faucet means faucet and I never heard of the term "faucet drain" before.All that being said, I love the sink, it is just in the wrong direction and I need a faucet.1. Can I return this for the correct model with the faucet hole on the RIGHT as shown in the listing picture, attached?2. If it does not come with a faucet, do you sell one, and if so, can you provide me with a link to the listing? I will gladly pay extra for the faucet.3. I suggest you amend the listing to make it clear the faucet is NOT included, to avoid confusion in the future.You have a great product! It seems we have an error in communication, though.Look forward to hearing from you!
11:57 AM
Dear customer,We're thrilled to hear you're looking forward to receiving the sink. Your enthusiasm means a lot to us! We're confident you'll love it. It's been crafted with the utmost care to offer both functionality and an upscale appearance.If you encounter any issues during installation or have any questions, don't hesitate to reach out. We're here to assist you every step of the way. And we'd be absolutely delighted if you could share a picture of the installed sink. It not only helps us see the product in use but also serves as great inspiration for other customers.Thank you again for your order, and we hope you enjoy using our sink for years to come.Best regards,NICO ​‌‍‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍‍‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‌‍‍‌‍‍‍‍‍‌‌‍‍‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‍‌‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‌
6:48 PM
Mar 12, 2025
Thanks for your e-mail! I look forward to receiving the sink! I will send a picture of it installed if it works out well. It looks very upscale!
11:14 AM

 








Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Exaggerating Isn't Helping!

 

The media loves Trump as he generates a lot of click-bait.

I mentioned that I started collecting Social Security the other day.  I decided, due to my health, to collect now rather than wait until I am 70.  It was a logical decision. I went on the My Social Security website and logged in using my Login.gov ID (with two-factor identification) and then signed up.  I believe I had to send a copy of my driver's license, which took ten minutes to do with my camera phone.

Bing. Bam. Boom. Done.  A couple of weeks later, my first "check" is deposited to my bank account.  Hopefully it is not the last - which it will be if "Doge-y" has anything to say about it.  The SSA has a very well run IT operation and it was very efficient and secure - and easy to use!

And despite the alarmist media articles of late, you can still use it and should.  Even if you are decades away from collecting Social Security, you should check your statement every year.  I print them all out and put them in a big binder.  It was a contractual promise made to us by the US Government, and the US Government (should) keep all its promises, right?

Some of my friends and neighbors told me I would have to "make an appointment" with the local Social Security office, months in advance, to navigate the difficulties of Social Security and Medicare (the latter I also signed up for, online!). Others told me I had to "call" the Social Security office, which, as you might expect, was a DTMF telephone tree of madness as well as long hold times on scratchy, repetitive bad overly-loud music.  I was a bit puzzled by this and thought perhaps I was doing it wrong - after all, my friends all stood in line at the Social Security office.  Could they all be wrong?

Yes.  Yes, they were.

Recently, it was reported in the press that Trump is closing a number of Social Security offices and making it no longer possible to sign up by phone.  The latter provision was designed to prevent fraud, not only against the government, but against recipients.  Before this recent change, it was possible to "verify identity" over the phone and also change direct deposit information.  As you might imagine, this would allow a fraudster to redirect a retiree's Social Security payments to an offshore bank account, which could go on for months before it all gets sorted out.

These articles implied that the only way to sign up for Social Security or Medicare was to make a personal appearance at a rapidly-vanishing Social Security office.  Only at the end of the article, or in a brief aside, do they mention that the online option is still available.

With the online system, a fraudster would have to know all my personal information (leaked online by a number of corporations over the years) but also my login credentials for Login.gov, as well as my e-mail login credentials, and be in possession of my phone and be able to unlock it.  Sure, it might be possible to "social engineering" their way in, but it is a lot harder than a phone call.

Moreover, the website is far cheaper to administrate that telephone call centers or physical offices.  Training seniors to use the telephone for things like this only encourages them to answer fraudster calls from India claiming to be from "Senior Services" (they're calling 3x a day now!) and asking for their passwords.  No, no, online is safer, cheaper, and easier to use.

The media is having a field day, however.  "Poor people don't have internet access and can't go online!"  BULLSHIT!  If you are dead broke, you can get an Obamaphone for free.  I know because I qualified for one (our former mobile hotspot) and I am hardly dead broke.  One can also go to the local library and go online there.  When there are thousands of dollars of money on the line, the poor figure out how to go after it.  A lot of "poor" people I know, who appear to be unsophisticated, can recite chapter and verse of all the regulations and rules for food stamps (SNAP), Section-8, and the like, as though they had been to law school.  We all do what we need to do to survive.

But what about closing all those local offices?  Let's face it - brick and mortar is dead.  Malls are dead, even strip malls.  Forever 21 is the latest chain to go bust as younger people are so used to buying everything online - a trend accelerated by the pandemic.  Maybe aging boomers still like to make phone calls and "appointments" but the next generation does everything on their phone.  And Boomers are dying off in droves and not too soon!  So closing Social Security offices really makes sense and in a sense, is inevitable.  It is not some "plot" to screw the poor.

But that doesn't make a good media click-bait story.

I am no fan of Musk or Trump - they are doing so much wrong, and in fact, disregarding the law and our separation of powers.  The Judicial and Legislative branches, too cowardly to take action and make hard choices, have - over the years - ceded more and more power to the Executive branch.  "You decide" they say, "We're too timid or worried about our re-election chances!"  So too little, and perhaps too late, they realize they have created a monster that they can no longer control. Maybe if Chief Justice Roberts gives Trump another stern talking-to, everything will be all right!

THAT is a real issue, not closing Social Security offices.

Similarly, there was another alarmist article online about a man declared dead by the SSA.  They cut off his Social Security payments and even clawed-back his previous payment from his checking account!  What a nightmare!  Curse you Elon and your minions!  Except... that shit has been going on for years, even decades.  A hospital reports a patient dead and their name is put on a "dead list" which Social Security uses to cut off payments to dead people.  Yes, Elon, the SSA was pretty damn "efficient" long before you came along!

But once in a while, serious mistakes are made and the wrong name or social security number is entered and the wrong person is declared dead.  It can take months to fix the error and indeed, it is heartbreaking to read these stories, just as it is heartbreaking to read about the wrong person arrested or convicted - or any of the other injustices that occur in this world.  It doesn't mean, necessarily, that the entire system is broken and should be tossed out, however.

James Carville, the Ragin' Cajun (and maybe slightly crazy) recently opined that all these protests and lawsuits may be counter-intuitive.  If we try to make the Trump Presidency "manageable" or controllable, then people may be content not to change things.  And maybe that was what went wrong last time around.  Until the average MAGA-head is personally affected by Trump policies, nothing will change.  It wasn't until Berlin lay in ruins that Germans (most of them, anyway) turned against Hitler.  It wasn't until the Soviet Union went bankrupt that Communism fell.

When Bubba's Asian wife is deported ("But she's one of the good ones!") or they lose their VA benefits ("you're hurting the wrong people! You're supposed to own the libs!") nothing will change.  Elon is mucking about with government agencies and getting away with it - so far.  But when the Social Security checks start bouncing in The Villages, the red-hat squad will be marching on Washington and it will make January 6th look like a child's tea party.

Unless of course, they just say "It's all Biden's fault!"  They probably will.

But exaggeration isn't helping anything in the meantime, and in fact, is hurting.  Because if every other alarmist article is debunked, people will start to believe that all criticism against Trump is over-stated.  And maybe that is the exact point of these alarmist articles.

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Winner-Take-All - The Rise Of The Mega-Dealership

Small-town dealers - of cars, boats, RVs, electronics, or anything - are a dying breed.

We are at an RV show in Florida, looking at "Class B" vans - RVs built on a van chassis, such as a Mercedes Sprinter, Ford Transit, or Ram Promaster (the latter sold in Europe as a Fiat).  We are renting one in Spain for a month and want to see what they are like.  As we get older, towing a trailer seems more difficult and the savings in storage fees (we can park the van in the driveway) would help defer the additional cost of switching to one.

What was interesting to me was that there were basically four mega-dealers there with dozens of RVs each.  No small-time dealers or Mom-and-Pop operations.  One salesman, from "Admiral RV" gleefully told me that "Leisure-Days" RV chain would soon go bust, and that his chain would snatch up the remnants of that once dominant dealership.

What happened?  Well, the big dealers get discounts - kick-backs - from the manufacturers, for selling a lot of RVs.  Car dealers work the same way, which is why you see so many big mega-chains of car dealerships, with dozens of locations and a host of brands.  Once you move a lot of product for a manufacturer, you can ask for - perhaps demand - special discounts and rebates, much as Rockefeller asked for "rebates" from the railroads for shipping his oil.

The snowball effect kicks in.  Since the big dealers can offer lower prices, they get more business and become more profitable and can expand further.  For the small dealer, the reverse-snowball kicks in, and since he has smaller margins, he has to charge more for the same product and resort to screwing his customers to make a buck.  This, in turn, pisses off the customer base, and they flock to the mega-dealer for better deals.  I learned this firsthand, years ago, when we bought the Nissan Frontier.  The local dealer had four in stock, one nearly two years old, unsold!  The big dealer in Jacksonville had dozens and called me one day, a year later, with an offer that was too good to refuse.

So the smaller dealer goes bust, and the mega-dealer who is flush with cash, buys him out for pennies on the dollar.  Capitalism at work!  And at first blush, this seems like a win-win for everyone except Joe Small-town dealer.  The customer gets lower prices, the manufacturer moves more product (and has to deal with fewer dealers) and the mega-dealer make more money.

Are there any other downsides?  Perhaps.  So long as there is competition between competing mega-dealers, prices can stay in check.  But if the number of dealers dwindles down to just a few - a duopoly, for example - it becomes a lot easier to fix prices and screw the consumer on a grand scale.

Perhaps this hasn't happened yet and maybe it never will. Maybe it already has. After all, at least with RVs, all you need to do to start an RV company is buy a sheet of fiberglass and a screw-gun.  I've seen it firsthand!

On the other hand, it seems that more and more of our economy is being controlled by a few big players.  You want to eat?  Chances are, you have to shop at one of four or five mega-chains to buy groceries, with Walmart being the 600 lb gorilla in the room.  They can set prices - to drive a competitor out of business or to reap windfall profits from consumers.

It just struck me as interesting that, not too long ago, there were no nationwide or regional mega-dealers of anything, and yet today, these are quite common, and it all happened in a short period of time and no one seemed to notice (or at least I didn't!).

Friday, March 7, 2025

Three Kinds Of Learning And Politics

♥️🍁

🖕🇷🇺

There are some people who need to burn their hand on a hot stove before they learn.

Above: My idea for a t-shirt logo.

Many years ago, I wrote about the three kinds of learning.  It seems that most people have to put their hand on the hot stove before they figure out that (a) stoves get hot, and (b) hot things can burn you, which hurts.  Today, we are seeing this on a national scale, in real-time.

Sadly, it seems that until a lot of people get personally hurt by Trump's economic and political policies, not much will change.  As I noted in that earlier posting, not many people can learn indirectly - by seeing someone else burn their hand on a hot stove - and thus realize that putting their own hand on the stove is a bad idea.  Fewer still will every advance to projected learning - and postulate that since they know that stoves get hot and hot things burn, putting your hand on a hot stove is a bad idea, even if they never experienced this firsthand or saw it happen to others.

On the run-up to the election, those who were above cave-man mentality were warning of what would happen - that tariffs would tank the economy and that the government would devolve into fascism and oligarchy.  Funny thing, I met a fellow who was "concerned" by what Trump was doing ("he is hurting the wrong people!") but barfed up a Fox News Talking Point - that just because historically tariffs have caused economic chaos, doesn't mean it will happen again  Economists beg to differ.

Trump and like-minded Republicans pine for the gilded age before the income tax, where a starved national government had few programs, a tiny military, and no foreign entanglements.  When we went to war, it was against weak, opportunistic opponents, such as Spain's overseas colonies.  Dynastic, generation-spanning wealth was possible for a privileged few, and the rich built white-elephant mansions staffed by dozens of servants.  Today, many of those mansions, such as the Biltmore in Asheville, NC, are museums, or like Dungeness on Cumberland Island, lay in ruins.

What changed? The income tax for starters - and the Gifts and Estate tax (called the "death tax" by Republicans).  Both taxes have been in the gunsights of the GOP for ages.  These taxes made it harder - but not impossible - to accumulate dynastic wealth.  It made it harder - but not impossible - for rich people to pass on their estates intact to the next generation.  But as I noted in another posting, the simple mathematics of inheritance mean that each generation divides up the wealth more than the previous.  When Elon Musk dies, his estate will be divided by spouse(s) and children (11 at the last count) and the wealth inherited will dissipate rather quickly.  Now you know why, in Jolly Ole England, the oldest son inherited everything and the other kids got bubkis.

But I digress.

Trump's theory is that we can abolish the income tax entirely and rely instead on a national sales tax (what they call a VAT or Value Added Tax in Europe and the UK) and tariffs.  Indeed, tariffs were one of the major sources of income for the fledgling United States government in the 1800s - and helped promote domestic industry in an era where we relied on England for most of our manufactured goods.  Being a Republican in the Lincoln era meant you stood for "God, Country, and the Tariff!"  A lot has changed since then.  Today, Lincoln would likely be a Democrat.

So that's the plan.  Abolish all social welfare programs, including Social Security and Medicare. Shrink the military and cut ties with our allies.  Shrink the government so much that you could "drown it in a bathtub" as Grover Norquist once quipped.  How do I know this?  It is what they said they would do.  Sell off government lands, including national parks, and use the money to buy cryptocurrency.  What could possibly go wrong with that?

Of course, there may be another strategy.  Declare tariffs on Monday - after your rich friends have shorted automaker stocks - and then suspend them on Tuesday (after your rich friends went long on the same shares).   But crypto cheap and then declare you will start a national crypto fund.  OK, so it doesn't always work the way you want it to.  But these regular sea-saws of policies do swing markets and it is a great way to manipulate the market.

So that is always a possibility - that "Project 2025" was never a serious proposition, but just a way to create chaos and profit from it.  Either scenario is disturbing.

But getting back to our main point, nothing will change until a number of Republicans start to realize that Trump policies are bad for business and thus bad for their pocketbooks.  Traditional Republicans - business owners and investors - don't want to see major disruptions in the marketplace, unless, as I noted above, they can profit from them.  GM, Ford, and Stellantis don't want to see tariffs one day and then none the next.  You can't plan a business when conditions are changing on a day-to-day basis.

The MAGA Republicans - mostly working-class people - haven't seen these policies affect them - yet.  We are starting to hear some MAGA-heads becoming alarmed when they lose government contracts or government jobs, or lose business deals due to tariffs (or even the threat thereof).  Many are starting to question their support of Trump, but alas, like the Cybertruck owner whose car has been in the shop for 60 of the 90 days they've owned it, they "Still love the truck!"

It will take real pain to get through to these do-do heads.  But even then, MAGA-world has a built-in set of excuses.  It was all Biden's fault.   Obama's fault.  Hillary.  Bill.  Jimmy Carter.  Anyone but their infallible orange God!

But it's not a cult and doncuforgetit!

Even today in Germany, there are those who celebrate Hitler's birthday and secretly profess an admiration for a man who destroyed their own country and killed millions of people.  There will always be idiots, it seems, and there will always be MAGA-heads, even decades from now, once we emerge from the smoldering wreckage of what once was the US of A.

But that does not mean change won't come.  Enough people will turn away from Trumpism once they realize it hurts them, their neighbors, their friends, the country, and the world.  It won't take much, either.  Trump won with a small majority of those who voted, which makes up less than a third of the population of the United States.  The House and Senate are held by the GOP by slim majorities - a few seats one way or the other could change things dramatically.

Even the Supreme Court has its limits - lifetime appointments tend to mellow justices, Clarence Thomas notwithstanding.  You can get Amy Barrett to vote to overturn Roe v. Wade as it was a technically challenged decision ("Are abortion laws unconstitutional?  Yes, and let me give you a three-trimester outline as to how it should all work!")  but getting her to void basic contract law?  That's a lot to ask of a former law school dean.  "Yea, the government can simply void contracts for work already performed, on a whim - that works!"

So maybe the tide will turn - but not before a lot of people get hurt.  And it sounds mean to say this, but no one seems to have much sympathy for the Trump voter who gets his dick caught in the wringer, crying "you were supposed to hurt the other guy, not me!"  Maybe he'll learn from his hot stove experience.

Probably not, though.  And I don't feel sorry for him, either.