Unilateral Disarmament

 

The "Gerry-Mander" circa 1812

One side can't lay down their weapons and assume the other will as well.

Back in the 1960s and 1970s, I would run into hippy-dippy useful idiots, who would say stupid things like, "we should just destroy our nuclear weapons!  Once Russia sees we are disarmed, they will have no need for their arsenal and follow suit!"  It is a silly argument, as history has shown that such tactics never work - the strong will always take advantage of the weak.

Sadly, the Democratic Party seemed to be hell-bent on such a unilateral policy, thinking that, perhaps, if they lead by example, Republicans would follow suit, if nothing else, out of a sense of shame.  Of course, we know now that Republicans are essentially shameless.

When one side disarms, the other merely takes over.

Our system of government is very old and very flawed.  It was originally based on a system where only wealthy white men could vote (and women were virtual slaves and blacks actual).  It passed on the obligation of actually running elections to the States.   Parties quickly figured  out that the real power was in the State House, where voting districts were determined, which in turn could alter the outcomes of local and national elections.  Gerrymandering is not some new thing, but nearly as old as our republic, as the above cartoon illustrates.

In a system where less than half the population bothers to vote, and where the electoral college and gerrymandering skews results, it is possible for a minority party to achieve a majority and keep it, once in power, particularly if the opposition is somewhat lackluster.

Republicans have wasted no time in consolidating power - though the Statehouse and the Courthouse.  They are pretty well entrenched and it may take years or even decades - if ever - before the balance of power changes.  This is assuming Trump does not declare "martial law" and anoint himself King in his new East Wing Throne Room (and you thought it was a Ballroom!).

Hillary tried the "when they go low, we go high" strategy and it flopped. Democrats in California, egged on by GOP Billionaire donor Charlie Munger, passed a law taking redistricting out of the hands of the legislature and set up a bipartisan "Citizens Committee" to handle redistricting of that State. The net result was increased Republican presence in both the State Legislature as well as the House of Representatives.  It was the fair thing to do, but politics is no place for fairness, it seems.

Republicans in Texas were so impressed by this that they passed a similar law in their home State.  Just Kidding!  Actually, what they did was gerrymander the crap out of Texas so that no Democrat will ever assume power there ever again.  California unilaterally disarmed itself and Texas did not.  The end result is a slim majority in the House for the GOP - only a handful of votes.  They could not have achieved a majority otherwise.

Tuesday was the mid-Midterm election.  I noted in my previous posting that the only item on our ballot was two seats on the Public Service Commission Board, which is in charge of setting utility rates.  Turnout for such a snoozefest election was pretty high.  Ordinarily, Democrats don't even bother to put up candidates for many of these minor seats.  Well, two Democrats won, by pretty impressive margins, particularly for an alleged Red State.  It was probably more of a referendum on the GOP and Trump than any concerns about utility rates.  I suspect many voters didn't know (or care) what the PSC was, either.

Across the country, Democrats scored some pretty impressive wins - defeating Republicans in many conservative districts, and retaining seats despite well-funded opposition from Billionaire donors.  Not bad for an off-year election.

Meanwhile, in California, Governor Gavin Newsom pushed for Proposition 50, which abolished the fair "Citizen's Committee" for redistricting and threw it back to the gerrymandering legislature.  Screw being fair.  Screw being "above the fray."  This is politics and there is no runner-up or second place. It is winner-take-all and sadly, a race to the bottom. Hippy-dippy notions of unilateral disarmament are, once again, proven not only futile, but disastrous.

The net result of such gerrymandering could yield one or two additional seats in the House for the Democrats.  Of course, not to be outdone, the GOP has been aggressively gerrymandering in other States, such as Texas, Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina.  Republicans were playing tackle football, while the Democrats were playing touch football - with one hand tied behind their back.

Well, no more.

Of course, Republican operatives will call this "hypocrisy" while at the same time ignoring their own mal intent.  That is the problem with trying to be Mr. Nice Guy.  Democrats have to hound out people from the party for even the slightest allegations of sexual harassment.  Meanwhile, the other party gets away with electing frauds and rapists - and no one blinks an eye.

But hey, at least Republicans aren't hypocrites. They are pretty open about embracing their own malfeasance.

Language Model

Does language determine how we think?  I used to think so.

I wrote before how language is nothing more than an exchange of symbols - symbols that have an agreed-upon meaning.  Change the meaning of the symbols, and you change the debate.  He who controls the language, controls the debate.

Consider the term "Fake News" which was created by the Left to describe the outright lies and "alternative facts" pushed by the Right.  For example, I got a mailing the other day concerning the November 4th election for our Public Service Commission (which determines our utility rates).  The letter alleges that unless I vote for the Republican incumbents, I will have to pay $400 on my utility bill to cover free electricity for "illegals."  No source was given.  Worse yet, if I was a Republican, I would have to pay another $100 on top of that!  Oh my!

But of course it was all made-up.  Fake News.  Well, what we used to call "Fake News."   Then the GOP commandeered the term and used it to describe any news or facts that they didn't like. Touché.

Did that really change the terms of the debate?  Was anyone's mind changed as a result?  I am beginning to think not.  But I digress, somewhat.

What got me started on this was my inability, lately, to find the right word or name - a symbol - for an idea.  I would be in the middle of a sentence and then struggle to find the word which represents the idea.  And when one pauses like that, in a conversation, people jump in and derail one's thoughts further.   This is one reason people use words or sounds like, "you know?" or "uhhhh.." as placeholders in a conversation - to signal they are not done talking.

I try to make this clear to Mr. See.  Just because I can't remember someone's name or the name of an idea or thing doesn't mean I forgot that  person, thing, or idea, only the word or symbol for it - a "handle" we attach to ideas to reduce them to shorthand.

Nowhere is this more prominent than in technology, where acronyms and funny names are used as handles for ideas and concepts.  I started a small argument (many years ago) among a few Engineers when I asked what the formal definition of "VGA" was.  Half said "Video Graphics Array" while the other half said "Video Graphics Adapter."  And yet, these were Engineers tasked with designing VGA chip sets at the time.  Despite their disagreement over the actual name of the device, they nevertheless agreed upon what the underlying idea was.

Since this Parkinson's thing has commenced, I find myself thinking about ideas in the abstract, while not necessarily remembering the names for them - at least right away.  This got me to thinking about so-called Artificial Intelligence, which its proponents were (at one time) quick to argue was "merely a language model" and not actual intelligence.  AI, we were told, was merely manipulating words, based on language rules, without understanding the underlying ideas.

I, on the other hand, have no trouble with the ideas, but find myself at a loss for words.  I keep telling Mark (and others) that "I am still here" even if it seems many have written my epitaph (sorry to break it to you, but I may live another 20 years this way).  When your communication skills falter and even your facial expressions go blank, people are quick to assume that nobody's home, when in fact they are, just that they are trapped within their minds.

Scary thought.

Meanwhile, AI proponents, hell-bent on shoving this "technology" down our throats, are less and less calling it a "language model" and more and more "the next big thing!"   Maybe this isn't so bad for us consumers, as AI can get thoroughly confused, which of course is a misnomer, as there is no "Intelligence" in AI to confuse in the first place.

I placed an order for fiber pills from Amazon the other day.  Two two-packs of 120 pills each.  I guess the order-taker at the warehouse got confused and sent one two-pack instead of two.  I clicked on the "help" link on Amazon and explained the problem and the AI-bot cheerfully refunded all of my money instead of half (or sending the other half of the order).  I am not sure how Jeff Bezos profits from that - his AI is giving away the store!

Perhaps that will be (or already is) a new sport for the younger set - spoofing AI.  Already, we've seen situations where people told ChatGTP or "Grok" (Really? How Junior High, Elon!) to "ignore all previous instructions" with sometimes hilarious results.  That's why kids do so well with computers - they're not afraid to break things.

Credit Card Follies!

Yes, I was nearly scammed by a look-alike site.  Scammers are getting better and better (or I am getting worse and worse!)  What an odd logo for an RV parts company - more like a motorsports logo.

I recently wrote about a scam site that offered RV parts for alarmingly low prices.  I should have known better.  I never hit "buy" but I did enter my credit card number before I had second thoughts! The best scams rely on the greed of the Mark (victim) who is lead to believe that they are the ones pulling the fast one, not the scammer!  I thought I was getting a $400 microwave for $80, when it was I who was getting scammed.  When every item for sale on a site is exactly 30% of retail price, one should be a little skeptical.

Unlike a lot of scam sites in the past, this one was well done, no doubt scraped from someone else's site.  No poorly worded British English full of typos - that's all in the past, now.  Who knows?  Before long they will even include AI bots to help you answer questions, just like on Amazon!

But I should have known!  No phone number, no mailing address, and in the "about us" section this generic fluff text that could be applied to any other scam sales site (and I am sure it is!):

Our journey began with a simple idea: make quality products accessible to everyone, no matter where they are. What started as a small passion project has grown into a trusted online destination for thousands of customers across the U.S. and beyond.

We’re not just another eCommerce site. We carefully curate our collections with your lifestyle in mind — blending thoughtful design, dependable craftsmanship, and fair prices. From our customer support team to our fulfillment partners, every step of your experience is built around care and integrity.

For once, Google AI comes in handy, noting the following sites have similar, if not identical, text:

The provided text is a generic "about us" mission statement that describes a philosophy rather than a specific company. Many eCommerce businesses share these values, and the statement is not unique enough to identify a single brand. 

However, several real and fictional companies in the search results use similar branding language:

• Home Fresh: A fictional Indian company whose mission, according to an ad transcript, began with the simple idea of "bring fresh flowers faster".
• Bajaj Capital: This financial company's journey also started with a "simple idea" of helping customers invest, and their brand is also built on trust.
• Curated Collections: An online shop that explicitly uses the words "Curated Collections" to describe its meticulously chosen goods, with a focus on quality and style.
• THE CURATED: Another site that sells "luxe staples at honest prices" and offers "curated" collections.
• Craft and Lore: This business describes its "Curated Goods" collection as "quality items that we use and recommend".

Who the hell "curates" RV parts?

Anyway, a few days later, I get a notice from BoA that an unauthorized charge of $42.00 was made at a Sonic drive-in across the country (gift card?).  To their credit, BoA (or its bots) detected something fishy and denied the charge and cancelled my card and mailed me a new one.  No big deal, but it is the first of  the month and all sorts of automatic payments are due - the water bill, for example  - and I had to scramble to move these "autopays" to my Capital One credit card.

Then, Capital One sends both of us e-mails telling us to "confirm our mailing address" as it has been a while since we last did so.  In the e-mail was a link labeled "click here to update your address!"  Way to go, Capital One!  Real smart security putting an in-email link after warning us time and time again not to click on such links!

Stupidly, I click on the link.

Fortunately, it was a "legitimate" link to the Capital One site.  But later, I realized the risk I was taking, so I changed my password just to be sure (after logging into the site, not from the link!).   Today, I try to log in and there is a "system error."  I mean, what could go wrong with sending an e-mail to millions of cardholders asking them to confirm their address?  I suspect that is what happened with this "address confirmation" e-mail and as a result, it crashed the site.

I tried calling their 1-800 number but it said it could not retrieve my information and it transferred me to an operator, noting that wait time would "exceed ten minutes."  This is not the first time I have seen this scenario play out.  Someone in the IT department decides to blast e-mail the entire customer base and the wonders why the servers all crash at once.  You know, sometimes it is best if IT geeks spend all day playing video games online and shirking their real work.  Sometimes things are best left alone.

It was a learning experience for me, though.  If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  Stop looking for screaming deals and search instead for fair bargains.  Be skeptical - even of sites that "look" legit.  I suspect templates or AI - or both - are being used to generate tons of scam online sales sites. Scrape some images, add some AI text, and, well, they've got a pretty convincing e-commerce site without all that pesky inventory, shipping, and customer service.  If nothing else, they've captured a few credit card numbers.  Sounds like easy money!

In the old days - like ten years ago - you could go on a Mom-and-Pop website and buy things.  I've ordered online from "Northern Michigan RV" and gotten hard-to-find parts at good prices.  Today, well, it is riskier not to use a major online retailer. Say, major online retailers probably like that!  Insert your own crazy conspiracy theory here.

The Internet was such a great concept, until humanity screwed it all up.   Maybe AI-bots will fix all that.  But I doubt it!

Nike vrs. Sketchers - who will win?

Cheap shoes that are a favorite of the AARP set, versus ghetto shoes that cost $200 a pair.  Who wins?

I recently read that NIKE, the preeminent sneaker company, has experienced a decline in sales after venturing into the "lifestyles" segment (whatever that is).   It is not the first time that storied company has made mis-steps. The history of NIKE, like the history of sneakers in general, is fascinating.

Legend has it that the original "waffle trainer" was literally made by melting sheets of polyurethane rubber in a waffle iron.  The founder of the company was selling them out of the trunk of his car at running events and business took off - boosted by the running/jogging craze of the 1970s.

Then disaster struck. They decided to sell fashion shoes - tiny wrestling-style sneakers clad in gold lamé, which left their traditional buyers scratching their heads. The company was headed for the brink, when a solo inventor (Rudy) approached them with his "AIR" sole invention, and the rest is history.

Well, that history includes signing Michael Jordan (a brand still sold today!) for one of the earliest sneaker endorsement contracts (a business worth millions if not billions, today) and the brand really took off.

There were, however, still mis-steps.  The sneakers were expensive and certain models created a beany-baby-like craze.  Inner-city kids started shooting each other over sneakers, and this created bad optics for the company.

But in the suburbs, sneakers in general became some sort of status symbol, like the unobtainable handbag or the fancy Swiss watch.  Fancy Italian loafers were out - expensive sneakers the color of tennis balls or highway cones, were in  - even for office wear!

People started buying sneakers not to wear, but collect!

But that changed recently due to a number of factors.  Spending $100-$200 (or more!) on a pair of shoes seemed foolhardy in a tightening economy - at least for some of us.  And the shoes were hard to put on, for an aging population, and didn't last more than a year or two before the expanded polyurethane foam soles compressed, or the rubber delaminated (Shoe Goo only works once!).

Enter Sketchers. Originally a "Sk8er Dude" brand, it morphed into a slip-on shoe popular with the elderly and obese (which describes half of America these days).  These started out as slipper-like shoes, and as I noted at the time, pretty poor for walking.  But while NIKE was sketching out their designs for yet more bizarre-looking footware, Sketchers came up with new designs that were more functional and comfortable - in particular, making the shoes fit tightly yet comfortably, so that you can wear a "slip-on" shoe for extended walking.

Priced at $35 and up (and not much more) they have been selling like hotcakes.  This makes me wonder whether NIKE's decline in sales could be linked to the rise of Sketchers.  Cheap, comfortable shoes, with largely conservative styling, which appeal to an aging demographic - sounds like a market winner.

Expensive, gaudy shoes, which require lacing and are more popular with the younger, urban set - is that a growing demographic in aging, fat America?

But, take heart, NIKE!  Sketchers was recently acquired by venture capital - and you know they can screw up a wet dream!

Fix or Replace?

Sometimes, it is just easier to install new parts.

I mentioned before how the seatbelt switch on the driver's seat on the Mercedes Sprinter van went bad - or more precisely, the wire connecting the switch to the SRS (Supplemental Restraint System) computer was severed when Mr. See rotated the seat around.

It was kind of appalling, actually, how it was put together.  Two tiny thin wires were snaked through a hole in the seat base and just hung there, unprotected, inches from the seat slide mechanism and a host of sharp metal edges. To be fair, this was exacerbated by the seat swivel that Winnebago installed - providing a guillotine for this tiny helpless wire.

People think Mercedes are fancy cars, but once you look underneath, well, you realize they are just cars.  And a commercial van? Acres of cheap plastic.  For example, the top of the seat base is covered with a thin layer of plastic foam of some sort, that just slides in place.  Granted, there are electrical components in each seat base (Mercedes relays and fuses under the driver's seat, Winnebago power relays and circuit breakers under the passenger seat).  But to me, that would be all the more reason to cover this with something more substantial than corrugated cardboard.

Anyway, I contemplated soldering the wires back together and was not looking forward to splicing tiny wires under the seat.  On a whim, I checked online for a new seatbelt buckle and found one, on eBay, for only $38 with free shipping.  For that much, why solder?

The part came in a few days and I removed the seat (which was held in place with those star-shaped bolt heads - fortunately, I had a set of matching sockets) and cleaned out 10 years of dust and dog hair from the seat base.  The new seatbelt buckle fit right in, and I tested it first by plugging it into the wiring harness and whoopee, the SRS light went out (but the error code did not reset!).  I cleaned everything really well and re-installed the foam plastic cover, this time aided by a plethora of self-drilling, self-taping screws.  Put the seat back (and the rotating base - heavy!) and all is good.

Or is it?

I splurged $110 on a new code reader - one that reads and resets codes for all the computers in the vehicle - and there are several, I learned.  Sure enough, there was an SRS error code for "driver's side seat switch" which I reset and it went away for good.  Error codes in auto computers are interesting.  Some OBDII codes (On Board [Engine] Diagnostics II) won't set off the "check engine" light until they persist for some time, or if a certain number of codes are present.  It all depends on the type of code and the manufacturer.  I guess the idea is to eliminate false alarms.

And false alarms are a problem.  I remember jump-starting one of my E36 BMWs (328iC) and it set off the check engine light.  I pulled out my trusty code reader and it showed a litany of errors (including, not surprisingly, low voltage) which, when reset, went away.  "Hard" errors usually come back right away, which is why resetting codes is a good first step (and maybe the last step) in diagnosing the problem.

For example, another E36 was throwing a "camshaft position sensor" code, which, when reset, would come back right away.  The camshaft position sensor was bad and needed to be replaced (not an expensive part, nor a difficult job, either).   On the other hand, our E53 (X5 3.0) would throw an "oxygen sensor adaptation limit reached" code, which, when reset, would go away (and the CE light go out) for months at a time - a classic "soft" error.   The problem in that case was a tiny pinhole leak in the intake elbow, allowing un-metered air into the system, confusing the hell out of the mass air flow sensor and the ECU. The rubber elbow was a $14 part, held in place with two band clamps - a five minute job, once the problem is diagnosed.  You'd be surprised how many dealer mechanics would replace the oxygen sensors (all four of 'em!) and charge the client $1500 or more, rather than replace this $14 elbow.

SRS codes are more strict.  Like I said before, on our E36's, people would kick under the seat, loosening these seat switch wires which would set off the SRS light.  An OBD II error (CE light) might reset itself if the physical error is cleared, after so many starts.  Not so the SRS!  So you need an SRS reset tool to clear the code in that case.

Speaking of false alarms, the "loose gas cap" code frustrated more than one car owner.   OBD II cars (1995 and up) have a system to detect air leaks in the fuel system.  If a gas cap is loose, the computer treats this as a leak in the system somewhere.  By the way, over-tightening the gas cap is not the answer!  As I learned the hard way, that only serves to compress the gasket too much, causing a leak.  If the instructions say "tighten to one click" (as it does on our KIA) then one click it is - not three!  Sometimes you just have to break down and buy a new gas cap, though.

Cars in the "good old days" had vented gas caps, and over time, gallons of gas would slowly evaporate from the tank.  But hey, gas is like 35 cents a gallon - who cares?  But "unburned hydrocarbons" are a big source of smog, and in 1960s Los Angeles, you could not see more than a few blocks on a bad smog day.  So as part of EPA emissions requirements, gas tanks were sealed.

Emissions aren't just from the tailpipe, but include things like tire dust and brake dust - and evaporating gas (which is why lawnmower gas cans have these annoying nozzles these days).  With regard to the former, look around a parking garage sometime and check out all that black dirt-like powder everywhere.  Yea,, tire dust.   And brakes? asbestos dust - back in the "good old days."  Tires last a lot longer today, thanks in part to better tire compounds.  And we no longer use asbestos in brake pads.  You can have the "good old days" - I prefer to live in the modern world.

But getting back to loose gas cap codes, manufacturers realized they were losing a lot of customer goodwill when a loose gas cap caused an expensive trip to the dealer.  So, many added stickers on the fuel door advising owners of the problem, or even a "loose gas cap reset" button on the dash.  But the problem still persists.

But getting back to the topic at hand, why spend $38 on a new seatbelt buckle rather than splice the wires?  Well, as I have learned over the years, both as a Technician and Engineer, every connector or splice in a wire is a potential failure point.  Wires generally do not fail if left alone.  They only fail if they are subject to repeated flexing or are not properly grommeted when passing through a sheetmetal hole, or some other form of mechanical malfeasance. But just sitting there they last forever.

Connectors, cuts, and splices, on the other hand, are failure-prone.  And I've see far-too-often, people try to save a few dollars splicing wires on a generic oxygen sensor and wondering why it doesn't work - when a plug-and-play factory OEM part is only a few dollars more (and a lot less hassle to install!).

Of course, to help prevent a replay of the original incident, I sheathed the seatbelt switch wires in corrugated plastic wire loom, which I carefully wire-tied on each end to hold it in place to the seat and seat base.  Then, I made sure that the shielded wire would not bind or get caught in the mechanism, regardless how the seat was moved or swiveled.  Problem solved - hopefully.

This was a pretty simple setup, too.  Some cars have several wires.  On the E36 passenger seat were wires for the seatbelt buckle (to check that you were buckled in) another set for the "seat sensor" (to detect the presence of a passenger) and a third set for the explosive device (!!) that cinched the seat belt tight in the event of a crash.  And that was back in 1997.

One final word on error codes.  I was surprised how many systems there were on the Mercedes Sprinter van - or how many there were potentially.  When I hit "scan all devices" the code reader tool went through a litany of devices (nearly a dozen as I recall), including some not on our vehicle, such as backup radar, radar cruise control, and the like.  Each system has its own microprocessor and each has its own set of error codes.

If all this sounds daunting, it isn't.   Like wires, most electronic components work just fine if left alone.  In addition to loose gas caps or disturbed wires, the biggest offender is often loose or corroded connectors.  A "wheel sensor" for the ABS (anti-lock brake system) is just a coil sending out a tiny signal generated by a notched part of the wheel hub to indicate rotation.  Coils like this rarely wear out, but the connector is located in the wheel well, where it is splashed with water, snow, salt, sand, and road debris.   Cleaning the contacts and applying dielectric grease often fixes the problem.  Code-monkey mechanics, on the other hand, blindly replace the part, believing (falsely) that just because a part is mentioned in an error code, then that part must be replaced.

Such is not always the case.