Saturday, November 30, 2024
Let's All Do The Same Thing At The Same Time Every Year!
Tuesday, November 26, 2024
It Takes Time For Reality To Kick In
The further you pull a rubber band back, the harder the snap.
When I was a kid, the Vietnam war was going on. Of course, we were the good guys, at least in the mind of an 8-year-old. I wasn't aware of the nuances of the war - for example, that we were propping up a minority (and corrupt) Catholic regime in a country that was overwhelmingly Buddhist. Stores were spread about the "VC" jamming chopsticks into the ears of Catholic Nuns and Priests - stories about as truthful as "They're eating the cats, they're eating the dogs!"
But we wanted to believe as we were the good guys, saving the world from the Nazzies and Hirohito, and pushing back Chinese aggression in Korea. Hooray for our team! Every person on the planet tends to believe this about their own country. No one wants to think they are the bad guy.
And we aren't bad guys. But sometimes every country does dumb things or even evil things. It takes a while for people to realize that, "Hey, that was a really shitty idea!" and in some cases, some people never figure it out. There are people today, in Germany as well as other countries, who think Hitler had the right ideas and "if only..." things would have worked out OK in the end. The fact that they didn't never seems to register with those folks.
With Vietnam, the first inklings that something wasn't right came from the youth who were being drafted, who wondered why their lives should be interrupted - or ended - to fight in someone else's war on the other side of the planet. Incidents such as the My Lai massacre created more doubt - although even then, we tended to rationalize those things as "a few bad apples" and thus forgot about it.
We overthrew the corrupt South Vietnamese government and replaced it with one just as corrupt, and failed to notice that the side we were championing was not even popular with the people they governed.
Every evening, in 1968, Walter Cronkite would tally up the dead in a "body count" graphic, and every night, it would be like 257 VC dead and 15 American dead. We had to be winning! Eventually they would run out of soldiers, right?
Over time, we dropped more and more bombs - more than we dropped in WW2! And Agent Orange, mining harbors, and so on and so forth. The mightiest Army - and Navy and Air Force - were brought to bear against the guerrilla army of a tiny Southeast Asian county (admittedly, supplied by outside forces) and at best could fight to a stalemate.
Some in government started to realize there were limits to our power. Short of using nuclear weapons or firebombing cities, we could not "win" the war, and even if we did, we would lose in the world political sphere. After nearly two decades, we called it quits and went home. Shortly thereafter, the North Vietnamese took over and today, oddly enough, don't seem to have too much of a grudge against us, even as we poisoned the land, left unexploded ordinance, and killed millions.
In retrospect, it seemed like a stupid idea - taking over a war that the French had lost, on the pretext that somehow we were preventing the spread of Communism. Not only did we fail in Vietnam, we tipped over the dominoes in Cambodia and Laos. One wonders whether we could have done better by embracing the North Vietnamese - as we eventually did - rather than opposing them. Today, they are a trading partner, and they use us as a wedge between themselves and China.
But still, today, just as there are those who think Hitler was right (and in Japan today, Tojo), there are angry veterans who still believe that "if only..." we could have won in Vietnam. Hey, we have people still fighting the Civil War - in their minds. But for the majority of people, the writing was on the wall - it just took us two decades to read it.
The Soviet Union went through the same thing in Afghanistan - and we did as well, decades later. Our adventure in Iraq accomplished nothing, other than to embolden Iran - leading to the chaos we see in Sudan and Palestine and Lebanon today.
It seems when you invade another country, you eventually lose. Unless you are willing to bomb their cities into rubble and - as Churchill once put it, "make the rubble bounce" - you can't win. And even if you go that far, as we did in Germany and Japan, you can't hold onto a foreign country for long. We let the Germans, even ex-Nazis, particularly ex-Nazis, take over control of "West" Germany after the war. We allowed Japan its independence, as we realized an occupying Army could never control the country. Even so, of course, we have military bases in those countries today.
We seemed to forget those lessons when we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan - as did the Soviets with the latter. And Putin may be failing to appreciate the past as well. But the average Russian? Again, it is natural to assume that anyone residing in a country may be inclined to root for their home team, particularly when the propaganda shades their view. Just as we read the "body counts" every night in the news and assumed we were winning, I suspect Russians are reading similarly biased reports on their news channels and assume that, any day now, Ukraine will collapse. Sure, Trump may cut off aid to Ukraine, but Western Europe may fill in that void, as they rightfully should, as the war is on their doorstep.
Russian people turned against their own Afghan war when bodies started coming home in bags and the cost of occupying the barren nation started to degrade their own economy. Putin seems to be keeping dissent in check, through propaganda, lengthy prison sentences for dissenters, and defenestration. But this only stretches the rubber band further.
Having your son or husband come home in a bag is disheartening. Having them listed as "MIA" and left to rot in some field - so the Army doesn't have to pay death benefits - is even worse. Eventually, something has to give. But it could take a long, long time before that happens. Remember we were in Iraq and Afghanistan for two decades before we bailed out, realizing there was nothing more to be gained by staying, and we had gained nothing by going in the first place
Can Ukraine last that long? One wonders. Even if Russia "won" could they survive decades of insurgency? How long can Putin - age 72 - realistically live, or be fit enough to lead? Will the next leader be willing to continue an unwinnable war with Western Europe?
Hard to say, other than in the interim, a lot of people will suffer and die for no apparent reason whatsoever.
Monday, November 25, 2024
CVTs Take Over The World?
In the sedan and small SUV world, CVTs seem to be taking over.
A friend of mine wants to buy a "new" car (used car) and has his mind fixed on the VW "Beetle" which went out of production in 2019. Oddly enough, I found several cars for sale within a 300-mile radius with less than 40K miles on the clock, some with far less. They are selling for more than the list price when new!
People ask me about cars. "You know a lot about cars!" they say. I used to. I used to know a lot of things, but time marches on. I try to steer people toward Hondas or Toyotas as they are pretty reliable (with a few notable exceptions) so they don't come back to me later on for advising them to buy a Yugo. Somehow, though, when you give advice, you always get blamed when things go wrong, which is why I think people seek advice. It is why I am loathe to give it.
Anyway, he is fixated on this Beetle like a dog with a bone, as his first car he owned was a brand-new 1970 Beetle that he paid cash for ($1999) which you could do back then. He has nostalgic feelings for the car, and at his age, why not indulge yourself?
But I looked into other small sedans - which can be had brand new for about the same price as a 6-year-old Beetle, and was shocked to see that CVT transmissions have taken over the field. I wrote about them before and how BMW jumped into the game by putting them in certain models of the Mini. A friend of mine had one and it blew out at 70K miles. There was a class-action suit and BMW got out of the belt-drive game.
Nissan, always the Chrysler of Japan (The Number 3 automaker) went all-CVT in their car and SUV lineup with similar results. Particularly in larger, higher-horsepower cars, the continuously variable transmission seems to fail early. Even Toyota and Honda use them in their smaller cars, and from what I hear, only Toyota seems to have figured it out with its "Aisen" CVTs.
When I wrote my earlier piece on CVTs there was choice in the market. Today, it is hard to find a car without a CVT. And the reasons are readily apparent. Ever-stringent mileage and emissions requirements mean that manufacturers have to resort to more and more esoteric technology to meet these goals - for cars at least. Light trucks and big SUVs have their own, more lax rules.
So we saw the move to variable valve timing, multi-port fuel injection, coil-over ignition, turbocharging, aluminum block engines, and so on and so forth. Chrysler (Stellantis - I still can't say it) pissed-off their Charger/Challenger faithful by replacing the V-8 "Hemi" (a bit of a misnomer as it had little in common with that storied engine) with a turbocharged V-6. Heresy! But the smaller motor makes over 500 HP, perhaps not as much as the venerated "Hellcat" but far more than the base V-8.
Ford was already on the turbocharging bandwagon, with its "Ecoboost" line getting 300HP from a four cylinder engine and hundreds more from its V-6. Maybe the rumble of a V-8 sounds better that the turbo-whine of the ecoboost, but the latter delivers more power and greater efficiency than the former. Car companies have no choice in the matter - unless they want to keep buying carbon credits from Elon Musk.
So CVTs are thrust upon us and if you want a "car" chances are, it will have a CVT. The new KIAs are all-CVT except the performance models and larger SUVs. You can't escape the belt drive if you are looking at a new car these days.
I am told they are better and perhaps this is true. People forget that the early days of the automatic transmission were pretty spotty. There were semi-automatic transmissions and something Chrysler called the Presto-matic or Gyrol fluid drive. The Buick "Dynaflow" was basically a one-speed transmission (if you don't count reverse) that relied on the torque converter for speed changes. When mated to the Buick "nailhead" engine it worked, after a fashion, but was no speed demon and certainly wasted gas.
There were further teething changes. Even after the introduction of the TurboHydroMatic (THM) series of transmissions, which became an industry standard, there were mis-steps by GM. In the early 1960s, the "Roto-Hydromatic" or "Slim Jim" automatic was put into Oldsmobile and Pontiac cars, and failed early and often. It wasn't until the late 1960s that the "bulletproof" THM350 and THM400 evolved. They even put them in Rolls-Royces.
Of course, that didn't mean the struggle was over. In an attempt to save money, GM de-contented the THM350 and came up with the THM250, which, in theory, was sufficient for the low-powered V-8's of the late 1970s. A lot were replaced under "hidden warranty" claims as they failed at about 70,000 miles or so.
So, the battle for a reliable transmission never ends, with new technologies and new performance standards always on the horizon. Newer "dual clutch" automatics do away with fluid couplings, but have reliability issues of their own, particularly in early models. But over time, the bugs get worked out. No manufacturer wants to get a bad reputation, as Mini and Nissan have, for exploding belt-drive transmissions.
When you start to make a product in the hundreds of thousands or even millions, well, you figure out how to fix problems. Early adapters always suffer the most as they end up as the Beta-testers for the company. But over time, fixes are developed (or the technology abandoned, as in the Mini) and reliability improves. There is an old joke that GM cars are nearly perfect when the very last one rolls off the assembly line - they finally get it right before pulling the plug. Sadly, the bulk of sales for any model are in the introduction year, not in the twilight.
So maybe the era of the CVT is upon us. They are lightweight, cheaper to make, and give better mileage and lower emissions. And we might not have a choice in any event. That being said, I am glad I am not in the market for a new car right now. Maybe if I ever am, by that time, we will have some reliability data on CVTs.
And maybe my friend has the right idea of buying a 2019 "final edition" Beetle (with 9,000 miles on it!) with the standard 6-speed conventional automatic. Maybe that is why used car prices are spiking, too.
A similar thing is happening in the outboard motor world, by the way. Old Johnson (OMC) V-4 two-stroke outboards can be rebuilt again and again, and parts are cheap. With similar new engines selling for five figures, many a fisherman is finding it cheaper to simply "build your own."
That being said, on the other end of the spectrum are ocean-going center consoles with five (5) engines of 500HP each. Those guys aren't worried about the cost!
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Bissell Rocks!
Monday, November 11, 2024
It's No One's Fault, It's Everybody's Fault!
Bernie Sanders knows what its like to be a working man!
Bernie struggled through life. He spent over a decade working his way through college, working for GM and UTC and even UPS as a Teamster. He had several side hustles, including delivering pizzas, tutoring calculus and working as a paid intern at planned parenthood. Once he graduated, he started his own business and became a jobs creator, too!
Oh, wait, that's me. Bernie worked as a handyman carpenter and failed at even that. He decided to go into politics and became a career politician. His wife ran a college into the ground. He became a landlord and owns at least three or four houses, including a dacha on Lake Champlain. Yes, he is a man of the people and knows of our struggle!
Or maybe not. He plays the populist card, but like my stinking hippie brother's communist puppet shows, he has no idea what working in a factory or warehouse is really like, other than in Marxist theory. And as I noted before, you come down to the factory spouting that commie bullshit, the "workers" will beat the snot out of you. The workers are very conservative, it turns out.
I have no doubt he is sincere in his beliefs - as was Ralph Nader - just wrong. The reason the "workers" didn't embrace Harris was because not because they thought the the Democratic Party was not left enough but was too far left. Bernie is right that the Democrats' platform didn't resonate with workers in steel mills in Springfield, Ohio. But the reason they didn't resonate was Bernie and AOC and Ohmar. They became the face of the Democratic party, thanks to Fox News and other right-wing media outlets, and Democrats let that go unchallenged.
There is a reason why, too. If Democrats distanced themselves from the far-Left of the party, they risk alienating the far-Left voters, who are skittish as it is - often threatening not to vote unless their demands are met. This is what I call, "hostage politics" and it is quite popular these days.
Meanwhile, moving toward the center to appease moderate "independent" voters didn't work either, as the GOP and its media (and Russian) cohorts painted the Democrats as radicals. For many middle-of-the-road Americans, the idea of voting for a Democrat was just a non-starter, even if that candidate was Reagan or Trump (who were both Democrats at one time, oddly enough).
The Democratic "brand" has been tarnished and to many Americans, it stands for transgender school operations, litter boxes in the classroom for furries, student loan forgiveness, welfare state, and increased taxes. Most of these characterizations (if not all of them) are false, but they stuck. And they stuck because people love rage-bait - they love to hate things. And Fox News gave them a colorful piñata to whack at. And it felt good.
So no, it wasn't Bernie's fault - entirely - or that of Reps AOC and Omar. They represent a portion of the party that is on the leftish side, and the GOP used them to decorate their piñata. On the other hand, Sanders has some balls claiming to represent the working man, when he has never worked a day in his life as a factory worker or hard hat or fast-food worker. He has a lot of nice theories about what these jobs are like, but no real hard experience.
America is a conservative country. So are most other countries in the world. All across the world, right-wing parties are making gains or are in control. Even "liberal" Western Europe is turning to right-wing politics, in part due to the worldwide immigration crises. Leftist politics are past their "sell-by" date, worldwide.
Democrats are able to achieve power only when they lean in toward the center and advance centrist causes. Leftists hate this, but it is part and parcel of "the art of the possible." If you look back at the Democratic Presidents of the post-war era, you see a lot of centrist and sometimes conservative policies.
Kennedy cut taxes, expanded our role in Vietnam, and even greenlighted a ill-fated invasion of Cuba. Johnson did expand civil rights and "the great society" but escalated the war even further. Jimmy Carter was from the conservative South and implemented the deregulation of industries that Reagan largely took credit for (a typical Republican trick, by the way). And Clinton? He negotiated the legislation that resulted in welfare being disbanded, replaced by TANF, which provides only five years of "assistance" for your lifetime.
Even poor Obama was called out by the far-Left as being too conservative. Seems you just can't win at this game, no matter what you do!
People complain about our "two-party" system, yet when I went to the polls, there were five names on the Presidential ticket. The reason why three of them never went anywhere was because no one is that far-left or far-right. Heck, half the people voting for fringe candidates like Russian asset Jill Stein, do so only as a "protest vote."
So no, the problem wasn't that the Democrats were "not far left enough" but that they were painted as too far left. But yes, too, Bernie is right in that the Democrats didn't explain well enough how their platform would help the working class.
Tell people you will lower taxes on the middle class and raise taxes on the rich and all they hear is "...raise taxes..." because, let's face it, everyone thinks they are the "rich" particularly when you classify "rich" as someone making over $400,000 a year. You'd be surprised how many middle-class people make that much, particularly when they have dual incomes at good jobs.
The flip side is also true - they hear about cutting taxes for the lower classes and they think, "tax cut for minorities" which of course is racist. Act shocked. Trump's pie-in-the-sky proposals to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime resonated with the working class as he was talking directly about cutting taxes on labor itself. A waitress who has to cough up extra money to cover taxes on her tips (which often wipes out the base pay) feels they are being over-taxed. A factory worker agrees to work overtime, only to see the tax on his overtime pay rocket up (because of the higher pay rate) and appear to negate the time-and-a-half or double-time pay rate.
So yea, maybe Bernie has a point, but his solution isn't the answer. Going further left isn't going to entice conservative workers.
Of course, people are "blaming" other groups - young white men who follow Andrew Tate, Hispanics who are conservative Catholics, white women who vote their own rights away, Jews who think that Harris was too soft on Hamas, Palestinians who though Harris was not hard enough on Israel - the list goes on and on. You can't please everybody, particularly when they have been so effectively divided up into factions.
So, how did Trump do it? After all, while the Leftists are threatening me with universal healthcare and free college, there are, on the far-right, neo-Nazis, white supremacists, racists, misogynists, and antisemites, some of who have promised violence (or actually engaged in it) to get their way. How Trump navigates this is interesting. He "dog whistles" to the extremists ("good people on both sides") which infuriates the Left, but who cares? Half of the Left is threatening not to vote anyway, as a protest.
Republicans fall in line. They also have selective hearing. They might be peripherally aware that odious elements of the far-right support Trump, but they seem to be comfortable with filtering that out. Meanwhile, if even one Antifa activist expresses support for Harris, well, she's dead to them (Republicans, that is). Like I said, selective hearing.
There are some on the far-left who want to see the system fail. I talked with a friend who was upset over the election outcome. He said, "I hope these fuckers who voted for Trump lose their homes, their jobs, and their life savings - even if it means the same for me! Maybe only then will they see the folly of their ways and vote progressive!" It is the age-old argument of tearing down before starting over. Destroying the village to save the village. Sucks to be a Villager!
On that note, we made our reservations for a 14-day transitioning (repositioning) cruise to Spain. Cruise lines move their boats from the Caribbean to the Mediterranean and back, based upon demand. The fares are very low (~$750 per person) and the ships are sparsely populated. We plan on renting a VW camper van and exploring the Iberian peninsula, including Portugal, to see the sights and also think about expat living. We are taking another cruise ship back, to New Orleans, a month-and-a-half later, staying there a while and then taking the train home (sleeper car). It should be a fun trip. This summer, we are going to Canada to cool off and see what our options are there as well.
And no TSA, no Karens trying to claim your seat, no $20 drinks at the airport lounge! Crossing the Atlantic by ship - twice!
And before you say it, yes, I saw the article in the paper today about the "Four year cruise" - it is a scam. The company has a tired old cruise ship and has a chequered history, even before making that offer. And the price is ridiculous! For less than half the $250,00 they are asking, you could spend four years on state-of-the-art cruise ships!
Saturday, November 9, 2024
Russia Foiled Again?
While the election turned out in Russia's favor, maybe it wasn't what they really wanted.
I was listening to an NPR show on the radio recently. Now that Trump has won, NPR, WaPo, and NYT suddenly rediscover their role as "liberal media." I guess even they too, will sell their country up the river for a nickle with that "both sides" and "sanewashing" approach before the election. Now that everyone on the Left is paranoid, well, they've gone back to being a beacon for liberals. All I can say is, don't trust 'em!
The show was interesting as one brief piece was about a Russian podcaster who was far-right - sort of their version of Alex Jones. And he was upset that Trump won. The Russian playbook was to repeat the events of January 6th, by having Harris win by a narrow margin. Then, the Russian Internet Research Agency could spread "election fraud" rumors and start another insurrection or perhaps this time, civil war.
Their goal, he said, was chaos. If Americans started a civil war it would shrink our power on the world stage and help the narrative of actual and wanna-be dictators who have used January 6th as an example of why Democracy doesn't work. A peaceful transition of power? That's no fun for Russia!
So of all the possible outcomes, Trump winning wasn't on their Bingo card and Russia is kind of pissed-off about that, at least according to this Aleks Dzhons of Russia.
I thought that was fascinating. A friend of mine went to Afghanistan and came back with a long beard and some long stories. I asked him why the Taliban was blowing up civilians in terror attacks on their own countrymen. "Chaos works in their favor," he replied. And that is the goal of the terrorist - terror. There is no pork chop hill to take over or strategic military goals to achieve. Just chaos.
So a smooth election foiled their carefully laid plans.
What will happen now remains to be seen. Much of the "Project 2025" agenda will require legislation from Congress - some parts even require Constitutional Amendment. Not all Republicans are on board with this agenda, and if only a few defect, or the filibuster remains in effect, well, the flywheel of Congress could put a check on Trump's ambitious plans. And all it will take is a 24-month delay until the mid-terms. At that point, we may see the majority in the House or Senate change, as it often does during mid-terms.
Of course, this assumes the Democrats get their shit together and put forth candidates that can get elected. Here in Georgia, Republicans often run unopposed. How hard is it to put someone - anyone - on the ballot? You need not even campaign - just wait for your opponent to get caught up in some predictable scandal.
Anyway, gotta go - booking our transatlantic cruise to Spain and Portugal. Scouting out some ex-pat locations to hide for four years!
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Congratulations President Hoover! (What Went Wrong - Or Did It?)
I noted in my last posting that Hillary was leading in the polls prior to election day 2016. She lost. But in her defense, she won the popular vote. This time around, it appears that not only did Trump win the electoral college, but the popular vote as well. This leaves a lot of people scratching their heads looking for an explanation. I think it is not one thing, but a host of small things that the GOP took advantage of, to win.
1. The Candidate(s): Joe Biden ran as a one-term President. Then he changed his mind. Then he changed his mind again, and Kamala was anointed his successor, only weeks before the convention. Whatever your political views are, this is a unique series of events in US History - as unique as a President being voted out of office - and voted back in again. And no, Donald Trump is no Grover Clevelend - he's much fatter!
Kamala was not my first choice, but rather a "Not Trump!" candidate. Some argue that was all she was and didn't have a platform of her own. This was not true, but as we shall see, the Democrats made the fundamental mistake of letting the opposing party define you. Once you go along with that, you are toast.
2. Democrats Fall In Love, Republicans Fall In Line: It is an old saying and it is true - Republicans have a "what's in it for me?" attitude, whether their issue is abortion, the economy, lower taxes, jobs, immigration or whatever. So long as the candidate gives them something they want, the overlook other issues which they believe don't affect them. So they will go along with the party line and vote obediently.
Democrats, on the other hand, seem to want a candidate who reflects all of their values without exception. And we saw this on the far-left, which, encouraged by Russian Internet trolls, claimed they would not vote for Biden (and later Harris) unless the Democrats gave in to a laundry list of far-left demands. The fact that Trump will give them nothing, didn't seem to faze them.
In fact, some were cheering on a Trump victory. As in 2016, many of the "Bernie Bros" voted for Trump, hoping the country would fall into collapse and thrust Bernie into the oval office. Yes, people actually think this way and there is historical precedent for it. Communists in Germany, for example, hoped that they would win in the end as people turned away from fascism. I guess that sort of happened, at least in East Germany. But usually what happens is the other side wins and then puts you in jail.
3. Palestine: Harris had to walk a tightrope on Israel and Palestine. If she came across as too sympathetic to the plight of civilians in Palestine, she risked offending some Jewish voters in swing States. On the other hand, if she came across as too pro-Israel, she risked offending Arab voters.
In Dearborn, Michigan, a largely Muslim community today, Joe Biden won in 2020 with 80% of the vote, according to NPR this morning. Harris lost to Trump 41% to 31%. Jill Stein, who actually visited the city, scored an amazing 18% of the vote. This time around, third parties didn't appear to be "spoilers" as in the past, but rather "none of the above" (as in Utah) or not voting was what turned the tide.
And the optics were horrible. Some pro-Palestinian protesters were seen lauding Hamas and Hezbollah, as if they were legitimate political parties and not terrorist organization. Again, people - and Republicans in particular - vote with their own self-interest in mind. And to a majority of Americans, the math is simple: Israel hasn't blown up a disco or pushed a man in a wheelchair off a cruise ship. Hamas and the PLO and Hezbollah have killed Americans, while Israel hasn't. Like it or not, this means Americans see Israel as "the good guys" and Palestinians as the bad.
As an added bonus, many fundamental Christians believe the end times are upon us (and Trump certainly fits the bill as the Antichrist!) and see the Middle East in this context of prophesies foretold. They actually want world war three to break out in Israel as they believe it was set forth in Revelations. Plus, I guess, they don't mind seeing a lot of Jews killed. Yes, they are pro-Israel and yet, antisemitic. Not the brightest bunch.
4. The Youth Vote That Wasn't: A lot was bet on young people, some just coming of age, voting for Harris. And many did. Many did not and many more simply didn't vote. The GOP has done a good job of dumbing down education and Trump sure loves his "poorly educated" voters. But even those of good education and high intelligence, the voting record is poor.
Even during the Vietnam War, when the "what's in it for me?" crowd had a big dog in the fight, many young people saw voting as a scam or not worth doing. In fact, the riots at the 1968 convention (because Humphrey wasn't anti-war enough) only insured a Nixon victory. Again, since they can't get everything they want, they will insure that everyone gets the exact opposite.
Recent research suggests that the human brain doesn't fully develop - mature - until about age 25. This is why we send 18-year-olds off to fight our wars and not 30-somethings who know better. My own experience is this was the exact age I gave up drugs and alcohol, finished my Engineering degree, started my career and went to law school. Prior to that, I was just a big, goofy kid (and am regressing back to that as we speak).
Young men in particular are very susceptible to peer pressure and influence. Joe Rogan Bros are a case in point. That is, if they vote at all - voting is so gay - right?
Among young leftists, the problem is worse. They are too young to understand that idealism is fine and all, but sometimes - most times - you have to settle for what is possible. "Politics is the art of the possible" according to Otto von Bismark. Wrong guy but he had the right idea. Compromise is one of those things you learn after age 25 when you realize that while the world is not an ideal place, it still is pretty decent, if you don't obsess about perfection.
Whatever the reason, the youth vote for Harris wasn't enough to turn the tide and relying on the youth vote is a bad idea for any campaign.
5. Race and Gender: One issue you didn't see the Democrats raising this time was the fact we might have a "woman President." I still have a refrigerator magnet that the Hillary campaign sent me that says "Madam President" - celebrating the novelty of it all. This time around, only Republicans harped on race or gender, with Trump famously making his "she turned black" comments.
Republicans knew they could afford to piss off minorities as, well, they are minorities and white people still make up 70% of the country. But even then, there are minorities who don't consider themselves minorities but will be in for a rude awakening pretty soon. I noted before how my friends from Latin America were insulted if you suggested their ancestry was anything other than 100% Spanish. Even the head of the "Proud Boys" white supremacy group is of afro-cuban ancestry. He doesn't realize that people named "Enrique" are not allowed in the Country Club, except through the servants' entrance.
Some people call this the "pick me!' mentality. People like this believe that when racist or misogynist slurs are being bandied about, they are not talking about them but rather those others who of course, are bad. The far-right has another term for them, "the people we kill last!" (as was applied to Yanni Yapalapalopalous).
6. They Go Low, We Go High: This was Hillary's strategy and it backfired in a big way. Study after study shows that negative ads work which is why politicians use them. Willie Horton ads and Swiftboating were abhorrent, but they worked to elect Bush and his son. No one even remembers the names of their opponents.
Online, we saw ads for Trump claiming Harris was a "border czar" who personally let in millions of "illegal immigrants." Of course, no such "border czar" position exists. Vice Presents attend State funerals overseas and act as a tie-breaking vote in the Senate. Period.
The Kamala ads were upbeat and positive and fizzled out. Tax cuts for the middle class! Tax the rich! It sounded much more vague than Trump's false promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime and "protect" Social Security. Trump is the friend of the working man! /s
What I would have liked to see is Harris fighting back in an ad using the same ominous voice the GOP uses in their ads, pointing out that Biden got a bi-partisan bill ready for Congress and had the votes to pass it, but it was Trump who killed the deal. And Trump is a liar and who wants to vote for a liar?
There was mountains of "negative" to use against Trump - often in his own words! Democrats used none of it. They wanted to be above the fray, I guess.
And I guess Harris, like Hillary, had no choice. A man using attack ads to get elected is being decisive and bold. A woman doing the same thing is a whiny harpy. And it ain't just men saying that - a lot of women, secretly or otherwise, believe the same thing.
* * *
So, where does this leave us? Will project 2025 be enacted? Will Trump slap tariffs on imports and start a trade war with China (raising prices through the roof and destroying our export economy)? We'll see.
I wonder sometimes if the Democrats wanted to lose. The last decade or two have been a repeat of the same two decades 100 years ago. We had an epidemic back then, a war, and then a booming economy that seemed to grow for no organic reason. Everyone was trading stocks, the rich got richer while the working classed got screwed. In 1929, it all came crashing down at once. And Herbert Hoover pushed through the Smoot-Hawley tariff act of 1930 which put the nail in the coffin of a dying economy.
Could the same thing happen again? Maybe Democrats saw the writing on the wall and realized if they won, they would inherit a major recession. Let Trump win, and he has to "own" it - and make it far worse with his half-assed economic proposals. By 2028, maybe Americans will be finally fed up with "tax cuts for the rich" and "trickle-down economics" and vote Democratic.
Maybe. But by then there may not be another election. Besides, that smacks of the Bernie Bros methodology - tear down the system to change it. That rarely works without a lot of suffering involved.
Meanwhile, Mr. See is bombarding me with brochures and books on how to live the ex-pat life in Panama or Portugal or Catalonia... There is a transitioning cruise on Holland America to Portugal in April, and the Condo is up for sale.
Stay Tuned!
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
What Next? (It Ain't Over Yet!)
Today is election day and we go to choose a new president as well as other elected officials. A lot of people are breathing a sigh of relief, as they were sick of all the political ads and political controversy. But it's hardly over by a long shot.
If Trump wins, I expect Kamala Harris will probably concede if the election, if it is clearly in Trump's favor. However, something tells me this won't be the case. Although polls have shown the race to be neck and neck, I think there's a lot of people, such as myself, who don't answer strange phone calls or respond to polls. Polls showed Hillary winning in 2016, as you may recall.
The long lines at early voting stations and the vast number of mail-in ballots seem to indicate that voter turnout will be better than ever and this does not bode well for the Republicans. Republicans have always known that if they can get their base to vote and get the other party uninterested in voting, they have a better chance of winning. Voter turnout historically does not favor Republicans.
So, I think there's a good chance that Kamala Harris could win the election. But that doesn't mean that she would win the election. Already Trump is talking about voter fraud and will continue talking about it till he takes his last breath when he dies of old age.
The Trump campaign will file countless frivolous lawsuits alleging voter fraud but not providing any real evidence or data to support these allegations. Why do I know this? Because they did the same thing back in 2020 and their playbook is pretty limited.
Their goal is not to win these lawsuits but to delay, delay, delay. It's similar to the Bush v. Gore situation where each party filed lawsuits to change the outcome of the Florida election. The Bush team simply got judges to stay the recount of the votes until the clock ran out, at which point Bush took Florida and became President.
Each State selects electors based on popular vote. However, if there's a problem with the vote or even an alleged problem it could be bounced to the State House and an alternate slate of electors could be submitted. Trump tried to do this in 2020 and was rebuffed in every State. However, since then, Trump has managed to get some of his operatives onto election boards, and many of the swing States have a Republican majority in their State legislatures. Of course, this is due to gerrymandering which allows them to stay in power, even if they don't represent a majority of the population.
But it doesn't end there. Last time around on January 6th, they were counting the electoral votes in a joint session of Congress. If one member of House and one member of the Senate objects to a particular slate of electors, the Joint session of Congress adjourns to investigate the issue. They did this once after the January 6th insurrection, however even Republicans were ashamed of what was going on and put an end to it rather quickly.
This time around I'm not so sure. Speaker Johnson has promised to turn the election to Trump, regardless of the outcome of the vote. And if they decide to quash a particular slate of electors, they could turn the tide and Trump's favor. Again there's always the possibility of more lawsuits and the entire thing being bounced to a Trump-appointed Supreme court.
I know this sounds all doom and gloom, but you were around in January 6th, correct? You do remember the nauseating feeling between election day and inauguration day where all that shenanigans went down and kind of ruined everybody's Christmas.
There is, however, some hope. For example, here in Georgia - which went for Biden at 2020 - our governor flat out refused to "find 20,000 votes" for Donald Trump. This was basically attempted election fraud. You can't find votes you can only manufacture them. Trump was basically asking for our Governor to commit fraud and our Governor wisely declined.
Similarly, our Secretary of State also declined to get involved in Trump shenanigans and counted the votes legitimately even if they worked against his own party. I recently heard a press conference of his on Georgia Public Radio and it was interesting how he laid out how they have improved security and procedures to make sure that there are no problems with counting the votes this time around. Last time, so-called "Vote Auditors" showed up and banged on windows and tried to intimidate election workers. I suspect if they try that this time around they will be met with furious resistance from the government.
The good news is, more people early-voted in Georgia than voted in the last election. Turnout is good!
People like to make stereotype generalizations about the South, but they largely aren't true. There are a lot of good people in the South who don't go along with racism and misogyny and right-wing thinking. You have to remember Georgia was the state that elected Jimmy Carter as Governor. You might say Georgia swings both ways.
But I'm not sure about other States, and there might be some situations where elected officials try to turn the outcome of the election in Trump's favor. We'll just have to stay tuned. I'm sure it's going to get ugly.
What really worries me is all this talk about civil war. America is the most well-armed country in the world in terms of the civilian population. A lot of the people who own massive collections of firearms are mentally unhinged. In fact, unless you're an avid collector of vintage firearms and a real expert in these matters, having a vast arsenal of weapons and ammunition is kind of the definition of insanity. There's really no point in owning several dozen AR-15s and tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition unless you plan on causing trouble.
There have been scattered reports for years now of people making ominous comments about how they want to kill Democrats. For example a Amazon driver recently threw a package at a customer's porch in muttered something about Democrats deserve to die. This strikes me is very odd as he is working for the richest man in the world (or second richest man in the world) while struggling to make ends meet is an Amazon driver. Does he truly believe that cutting Jeff Bezos' taxes will trickle down to him? It's hard to believe.
But I do believe there will be some incidents, hopefully isolated incidents, where Trump supporters will go off and start shooting people randomly, targeting Democrats in particular or anyone they feel is not a true American. And I believe that between now and inauguration day and maybe afterwards they will be episodes of political violence.
Now you may say I'm being alarmist. You may say this is all speculation. But these are things that Republicans have promised America if they don't get their way. And sadly, a lot of people feel that to avoid trouble we should just cave into Republicans, much as people during the Weimar Republic caved into nazis. I mean how bad could it get?
Stay tuned and find out!
Monday, November 4, 2024
Understanding Baby Boomers
This Rabbi has some interesting insights on addiction.
The younger generation has a hard time understanding baby boomers. They seem so selfish and detached from society. They seem insane at times, falling for nonsense like Trumpism or Qanon or the latest fake posting on Facebook. The younger set is quick to blame it all on leaded gasoline, which is a pat answer, but fails to address why all baby boomers are not this way. I think there are other factors at play.
Growing up at the tail-end of the baby boom, I had the chance to study boomers in the wild. As a child, their behavior even then seemed bizarre to me. But I think there was a reason for this - their parents. The previous generation was coined "the greatest generation ever!" by Tom Brokaw (thanks Tom, for enabling narcissism!). After all, they survived the depression and fought the Nazzis - heroic deeds indeed!
But of course, not all did. Mark's Dad heroically bailed out of a burning B-17 moments before it exploded, spending four years in a POW camp. And no, it wasn't like Hogan's Heroes either. Of course, Mark's Dad would be the first to say he wasn't a hero, but just caught up in history - wrong place, wrong time. My Dad, on the other hand, literally partied his way through WWII and had a ball, not having to go overseas until the fighting was largely over and even then, was far back from the front. He didn't get even a scratch.
Nevertheless, the boomers grew up in the shadow of all this. We played "GI's and Germans" instead of Cowboys and Indians. And we had all the props to do it with - left over Army canteens, German helmets (war souvenirs) and even an ammo belt to play with. Bang! Bang! You're dead, Hitler!
And the greatest generation ever (not yet named) were quick to point out how great they were and how the next generation was nothing but worthless pieces of shit - sort of like how we mock the younger set today for their avocado toast and video games. Every generation does this to the next. And yes, the "Greatest Generation Ever" had its own slang ("23 Skiddo!" or "Oh You Kid!" - or whatever) as well as their own music (Big bands were the rock 'n roll of the era) and modes of dress - all of which alarmed their parents' generation.
But the war changed all that. I recently read The Last Convertible which was a novel based on the author's pre-war experiences. They partied and drank - a lot - at Harvard, but the older generation, including their professors, were indulgent. After all, these "kids" would soon be called up to serve their country and many would be wounded or die in the process. Suddenly, your mid-term exam schedule seems a lot less important. There was a seriousness to their tomfoolery, even if only a portion of them actually served or risked their lives.
So you can imagine what they thought of their frivolous children. First, in the 1950s, becoming beatniks or rebels without a cause, and screaming over Elvis. This is what we beat Hitler for? Then, in the 1960s, the hippies and the Beatles and drug culture and "dropping out and tuning in." Parents slaved to save money to send their kids to college so they would have a better life and the kids wanted none of it! Ungrateful bastards!
But the above video got me thinking. The Rabbi has a point - people don't just do drugs to have a good time, but to anesthetize themselves from their own demons. I knew a woman who became a heroin addict. She got pregnant in the 1960s when abortion was illegal and an out-of-wedlock pregnancy meant you were a "slut" not worthy of a "good man." Her wealthy father flew her to England for an abortion. But when she returned, she was showered with a litany of abuse by her Dad, who considered her "damaged goods." She lived up to that expectation.
My own Mother is another example, growing up in the 1930's as a Lesbian, when such things were not talked about. Her own Uncle shot himself when he was "outed" as gay and no doubt her family thought he did "the honorable thing." The message was clear - gay was the worst thing you could be. So she drank herself to death (and attempted suicide) over the next half-century, finally succeeding at her task.
Of course, not everyone's demons are the same or as bad as another's. But I wonder perhaps, if the whole "counterculture" movement was a reaction to the overhanging reputation of the previous generation. Those coming of age in the post-war era were expected to keep their nose clean and go to school and get good grades and behave, because Mom and Dad had already done all the heavy lifting in WWII. Eventually, they rebelled against these restrictions.
The "lost generation" of Korean War vets, is a case in point. The Korean conflict was as horrific as any other war - worse in some ways. Yet, returning veterans didn't get the hero's welcome their predecessors did as America was ready to move on from war. Besides, the Korean War was was creating steel shortages and this was inconvenient to the folks back home!
Maybe the same could be said for Vietnam. The older generation "did their duty" and didn't understand why the younger set wasn't eager to die for an ambiguous cause - supporting a government and a religion that was not even popular with the people they were trying to "save."
The baby boomers started to go off the rails. Drug addiction and alcoholism continued to rise in the 1960s and accelerated in the 1970s, as new drugs, such as crack, took hold. An entire generation, told they were worthless pieces of shit by their parents (and often beaten - it was a thing back then) turned to anesthesia to forget about their troubles.
Of course, many escaped this trap and thrived and grew. But a lot of the boomer generation are damaged goods, and often the damage is self-inflicted. Worst of all, many failed to learn from the lessons of their own lives - just as their parents failed to learn their own experiences - and passed on the traumas of their childhoods to the next generation.
My Father, for example, had an anger management problem - he was angry all the time, usually at his worthless children. And yea, he used to beat us, that is, until one day I realized he was old and middle-aged and two young bucks could kick his ass. I guess there is an advantage to being youngest - you can see these things. He disappeared for four days and when he came back, well, he was a lot calmer. But I digress.
Sadly, we (all of us) fail to learn from our own experiences and mock the next generations for their perceived transgressions. We pick on them for using oddball slang and listening to annoying music, just as our parents' generation did with us, and their parents' generation did with theirs. Some argue we should go back to a "simpler time" when children were silent and obedient, but I suspect that simpler time never existed, other than in physically abusive homes.
But getting back to baby boomers, I suspect part of their underlying "trauma" was caused by trying to live up to the expectations of "the greatest generation ever" and then failing badly at it. They were set up to fail, which is why they just gave up and "dropped out, turned on, and tuned in" to the whole counter-culture thing.
There is hope, however. Not for the boomers, who are, fortunately marching off to the graveyard in droves as we speak, but for the next generation. Alcohol use is down, as is drug use and teenage pregnancy. Perhaps the next generation has fewer demons to slay than prior generations, even as they face a real-world with what seem like insurmountable challenges.
Maybe so. If so, good for them - and their goofy music, slang, video games, and avocado toast! Could be, they're on to something.
Sunday, November 3, 2024
Car Wash Clubs
As I am getting older, I find myself less able to do things on my own. I used to pride myself on "doing it myself" whether it was mowing the lawn, changing my own oil, or washing my own car. Hiring people to do your personal chores makes little sense - at least when you are young and ambulatory and have the energy to do these things.
As we get older, well, it becomes harder and harder to do manual labor. My Mother warned me of this at an early age. "Save your money," she said, "You'll need it when you get older and can't do things for yourself!"
Sadly, I see a lot of young people hiring lawn guys, maids, and whatnot, on the premise that since they are "so busy" with their careers, they don't have time to do these tasks themselves. Instead, they come home from work, order a pizza, and flop in front of the television for four or five hours. I did it. All my friends and neighbors did it. Then I woke up one day as if from a dream and wondered what the heck I was doing - going into credit card debt while paying a guy to mow my lawn and destroy my sprinkler heads. I made some changes.
That was 25 years ago, and time has gone by and I have changed for the worse. Mowing even just the front yard is an exhausting chore that leaves me wiped out and dizzy. Washing even the car is a monumental task - just coiling the hose is a problem with arthritis.
So, I thought I would check out the new car wash at the end of the St. Simons causeway. The hamster was filthy and with all these doctor's appointments, I wasn't sure when I would get the time to wash it. So I rolled into "Swifty" car wash, which as it turns out, is part of a larger chain of car washes with a dozen different names.
An employee bounces out to the check-in terminal and says, "Hey Boss!" - everyone calls you "Boss" there as I would find out. They had different levels of wash, and I chose the $30 "graphene" level which was one level below their ultimate wash. The attendant explained that for $30 I would have unlimited washes for a month, so I thought I would give it a try.
Well, the wash experience was good - the car look shiny new with "graphene" (whatever that is) and they have free vacuum bays with the most powerful vacuums known to man - they literally suck the floor mats out of the car. Speaking of which, they had a floor mat cleaner machine like they had in Ithaca, and it beats the dirt right out of the mats. They have stacks of microfiber towels for wiping and drying, along with paper and "cleaner" to do your windows.
I have used it a few times since then. I kind of feel guilty taking it there when it just has water spots on it from a light rain. But "unlimited" means unlimited, right?
I tried the "other" car wash - Foamy - with the truck, for a one-time wash. Similar deal, but they have no floor mat machine. Bummer. They also had a $30 "unlimited" wash, but after a month, it went up to $45 a month thereafter. Lots of fine print to check off as well. I declined.
It made me worry though, had I signed up for an auto-renew plan at Swifty? Indeed I had and the attendant failed to mention this. I logged onto their website and after entering the number on the sticker they attached to my windshield, I was able to set up my account and enter account information.
Turns out, you can only cancel the plan online, but it appears the cancellation is painless. They will even pro-rate a cancellation if you sell your car or move away. They do require seven days notice before auto-renewal, I guess because the billing system needs time to cancel auto-pay.
They also offer a "suspend" option, if you are going away for the summer (as we do) and I will investigate that. I am not sure how it works, but I wonder if some wily user would "suspend" his account on a weekly basis, so as to stretch out how long his $30 lasts. I suspect the owners have thought of that. Probably can only "suspend" for a month at a time.
I kind of kick myself for not realizing I had signed up for an auto-renew plan. But on the plus side, it only auto-renews at $30, not $45 like the "foamy" place did. So far, I have used it four times, or once a week, and that brings the cost-per-wash to $7.50 which is less than I would spent in quarters at a "do it yourself" wash bay.
It does still require effort - to vacuum the car, to wipe down excess water and clean windows and interior surfaces. However, the amount of effort decreases over time as once the car is clean, it is easier to keep it clean.
I will let it renew another month or so, and experiment with the "suspend" feature. If they try to make cancelling like a gym membership, I will report back.
As for oil changes, I have kind of given up on that messy business. The cost at the e-z lube place is not too astronomical compared to buying oil and filters. Plus, you have a written record of oil changes (file those receipts in a binder!) which helps with resale and warranty claims. So many cars today have 100,000 mile drivetrain warranties - provided you can prove the oil was changed regularly.
With each passing day, I am "doing it myself" less and less, and I'm OK with that. I worked hard for 40-some-odd years, it is time to relax!
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