The Prius on the left, gets 48/50 mpg and costs $22,000. The Aveo on the right gets 27/35 MPG and costs $12,000. Owning a Prius says you care about the environment. Owning an Aveo says you are poor.
When I was at GM, the philosophy about small cars was "small car, small profit." And to some extent, this was true. Critics, including John Delorean, decried this attitude at the "big 3" during the 50's and 60's, arguing that there would be a market for an upscale, quality car.
And there was, too. The Japanese and Germans exploited the demand for quality small cars in the US - a demand that was not being met by Pintos, Vegas, Gremlins, and Chevettes. But for the most part, small cars, even today, are viewed as "economy cars" and consumers expect to pay less when they get less, even if a large car is little more than an empty steel box.
Hybrid drivetrains are an interesting innovation, and as an Automotive Engineer, I find it interesting technology. It is the first major shift in drivetrain design since the Model T, frankly, and despite what the naysayers claim, this type of technology - or something similar - will be here to stay, as the demand for higher mileage cars increases.
What is a hybrid car? Perhaps an explanation of terms in order. There are three types that are available on the market now - or will be shortly - Parallel Hybrids, Series Hybrids, and Plug-In Hybrids.
Parallel Hybrids are on the market today and encompass the Toyota Prius and pretty much every other hybrid you can buy at the time of this writing. A smaller gasoline engine drives the wheels, with an electric motor connected to the drivetrain as well. When starting out, or at low speeds, the car may run on electric power alone, with the gasoline engine kicking in when additional power is needed. Regenerative braking is used to recapture some of the energy in city traffic, and this energy recharges the battery.
Series Hybrids are not on the market yet, but the Chevy Volt promises to be the first of these. Like a Diesel/Electric Locomotive, an electric motor drives the wheels of the vehicle, and a gasoline engine will start up and recharge the batteries once they are depleted to a certain level. The gasoline engine is NOT connected to the drive wheels in a series hybrid. The series hybrid promises to be an interesting development and is more of and electric car with a recharging generator built in. Since the gas engine runs at one constant speed, it can be tuned for maximum efficiency at that speed.
Plug-In Hybrids can be Parallel or Series, and will hit the market shortly in both forms. The Prius is slated to come out with a plug-in option. Many hobbyists have already converted some of their cars to this mode. The Chevy Volt will be a plug-in hybrid, and again, is more like an electric car than a hybrid in that regard. The advantage of the plug-in hybrid, is that if battery capacity is increased, you can drive up to 30 miles or more, without having to start the gasoline engine. For many people who commute short distances, this could mean buying gas once a year or only when going on long trips. Gas consumption could theoretically drop to zero. Oil changes might be once in the life of the car. It will be interesting!
We live at an odd crossroads today. You can go to a car dealer and buy an 8 MPG SUV with a 400 HP engine - or larger, and on the same lot, find a car that is a hyper-miler.
Do you need or want a hybrid car? The answer is complex. But for the most part, at this time, you can get very similar economy with a traditional car drivetrain, and the cost/benefit analysis really never pans out for the hybrid. Down the road, hybrids and plug-in hybrids may dominate the market and you may not have a choice. If gas prices rise to $10 a gallon, owning such a car might be compelling. But at the present time, they are more of a status symbol than a practical choice.
You see, people don't buy hybrids for the gas mileage - despite what they may claim. A hybrid is a political statement and also a status symbol for the owner. It says "I care about the planet, while you are a neanderthal polluter! I am BETTER and SMARTER than you!"
And while a Prius owner might deny that, but it is the essential truth, as there really it little in the way of "saving the environment" when you buy a Prius. It is more about making a statement.
Consider the two cars shown above. The Aveo on the right is made by Suzuki and sold by Chevrolet. It gets a reasonable 27/35 MPG, while the Prius gets close to 50. That's a big savings in fuel, right?
Well, not exactly. As we have discussed here before, and as many economists have noted, Miles PER Gallon is a fraction or ratio, with a numerator and a denominator. Yea, I know, math and all - that stuff you don't need to know "in real life" and the stuff that many people really suck at - basic math.
So every increase in miles-per-gallon is less of a savings than the previous. There is a huge jump in going from a 10 MPG Hummer to a 20 MPG Santa Fe. But the savings in going to 30 MPG from 20 MPG is less, in terms of gallons consumed per mile. And with 40, even less so. Consider the savings in the table below, for an average American driving 15,000 miles a year.
MPG Gallons/Yr. Cost@$3/Gal Savings
10 MPG 1500 Gallons $4500.
20 MPG 750 Gallons $2250 $2250
30 MPG 500 Gallons $1500 $ 750
40 MPG 375 Gallons $1125 $ 375
50 MPG 300 Gallons $ 900 $ 225
As you can see from the table above, the savings between 40 and 50 MPG are pretty paltry. The higher you go, the less money you save - while the cost of the technology to get such mileage increases exponentially.
Consider the typical American, who drives 15,000 miles a year. For the Prius, at 50 MPG, that is 300 gallons of gas a year, which at $3 a gallon is $900 a year in gas costs. For the Aveo, at 30 MPG, that is 500 gallons a year, which at $3 a gallon is $1500 a year in gas costs. This may seem like a big savings at first ($600 a year), but over the life of the car (15 years), this works out to about $9000 in increased fuel consumption for the Aveo. In other words, there is no "payback" in driving the Prius over the Aveo - after 15 years, you are still $1000 behind in gas costs.
(and consider that you are likely to get a "bargain price" on the Aveo, and pay over list for a Prius, and the savings are even harder to quantify).
But there are other considerations in this "save the planet" scenario. The Prius uses a Lithium-Ion battery which is made of rare earth elements which are mined in Bolivia and other 3rd world countries. The environmental impact of this mining has its associated costs on the environment. In addition, disposing of lithium-ion batteries - safely - at the end of the design life is a problem that is not talked about very much. The combined impact of both of these issues is arguably greater than the few barrels of oil a year extra that the Aveo consumes.
This is not to say I am against hybrids. By providing a status "hook" that people can hang their hats on, the Prius and its ilk allow people to buy smaller cars, while still maintaining status. Buying an Aveo says "I am poor" and most people don't want to project that image.
Of course, there are other "hooks" used to sell status in small cars. BMW has used the panache of its Mini line (and retro styling) to sell a high-end small car. VW had tried a similar tack with its new Beetle, but that has been discontinued. They do, however, sell "high end" versions of its VW line as Audis. But it is hard for many people to justify dropping 22 grand on a small car, when for the same price, you can buy a used Avalon with a trunk large enough for four sets of golf clubs.
And that's the rub. Provided your car gets "reasonable" gas mileage (30 or so) there is not a lot of savings in going to a "hyper miler" car, and the payback might not occur over the life of the car.
Does this mean you shouldn't buy a hybrid? No, I never said that. Dropping demand for fuel helps everyone in the economy, as when demand drops, so do prices. So when you drive a hybrid, everyone benefits.
But you can also get similar mileage from conventional drivetrains as well. And the cost of driving and owning a conventional car actually works out to less than the hybrid, even with fuel factored in.
The choice is up to you. At the present time, these might not make financial sense. But all it would take is one gas crises to drive the economic analysis the other way. Assuming $5 a gallon gas, for example, would show a $1000 a year in savings, and a payback in as little as 10 years. Still a long time, but better than 15 years with no payback!
And frankly, I think that the hybrid technology might be here to stay - perhaps not in the form it is now, but in a plug-in mode, where real savings in fuel as well as engine wear would be realized.
My personal choice? I think I'll wait a few years to see where the market is going with this before investing in what is still a relatively new technology. And besides, my car isn't nearly worn out yet (11 years old and 28,000 miles on the clock!). I simply don't drive that much anymore!
3 comments:
MY explanation of hybrid types is a bit simplified and perhaps a bit incorrect.
Most cars require little energy to maintain them at speed. A typical sedan needs only 10-20 HP to go 55 mph on a flat road.
But for accelerating or climbing hills, you need more power - a lot more power. So cars have 100, 200, or 300 HP so they can accelerate smartly and go up hills.
But for the most part, they never use this power, except on demand.
The original hybrids used the electric motor as an assist for acceleration, with the gas engine running most of the time. When braking, these motors would turn to generators to recover the energy used.
So in a typical stoplight scenario, you might charge the battery in braking for a stoplight, and then re-used that energy as a powered "assist" to accelerate away from the light.
The Prius and its ilk, therefore, are not really like electric cars, but more like a gas powered car with an electric assist, even if they can run in an electric mode at slower speeds.
The Chevy Volt, if it ever sees production, will be more like an electric car with a recharging generator. It is a profound difference in drive-train philosophy, even if both are lumped together as "hybrids"
It also illustrates why Toyota has only reluctantly embraced the "plug-in" hybrid model. The car is not designed to be run as an electric car that is plugged in, with a gas motor as a range extender, but rather as a gas car with an electric energy recapture and acceleration boost feature.
The Prius and its ilk do well in getting good gas mileage in the city this way. But they are gas engine cars, not electrics with a gas engine.
There is a distinction that may appear to be subtle, but is really very profound.
The other distinguishing feature of the traditional "parallel" hybrid was basically an "engine off" feature that might trickle down to other makes of cars, if it already hasn't.
Since an electric motor is attached to the engine, and since fuel injected cars require little cranking to start, you can shut down an IC engine at a stoplight, and when you press on the gas, instantly start the engine again (if needed).
By not having the engine "idle" you end up saving a lot of gas.
It does require that the engine be in top tune, of course. If an engine gets old and hard to start, the whole game is off.
How hybrids will age with time will be interesting. a 10- or 15-year old hybrid will undoubted have service issues that are novel and unusual compared to conventional cars. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.
For series hybrids, driven mostly in city traffic, the major service headache could be engines that never run very often - disuse is as bad as overuse for an IC engine. The Chevy Volt may have to be programmed to start up its engine every so often, just to circulate the oil and keep it in shape!
Four comments (and I may re-write this piece to incorporate all the comments):
1. There are such a thing as "mild hybrids" which are usually American cars. These provide some additional improvement in mileage, but are really more of a gimmick than a real hybrid. The alternator is wound to work as a motor, and dual tensioners are used on the belt to keep it from slipping. Sounds like an Oldsmobile Diesel to me.
2. Toyota is releasing its plug-in hybrid in 2012, which should be the last nail in the coffin of the poorly marketed Chevy Volt. Toyota is serious about the car, Chevy wanted a halo car to sell its bail-out plans.
Gas will continue to go up in price, and while there is no great savings at $3 a gallon, at $4 a gallon or $5 a gallon, there may be. The $7500 tax credit on a plug-in Prius may make it a very compelling product.
3. Also, while I compared the Prius to the Aveo, a better comparison would probably be to a Corolla, which is a more comparably built and equipped car (and a comparable size). This makes the Prius look more advantageous.
4. One of the car magazines did a comparison between a 2001 and 2011 Prius - they have been making these for a DECADE now! They found the battery pack to be still working fine and the gas mileage nearly as good as new. Pretty impressive....
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