Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Why Hillary Will Win

The next President of the United States.... and the first husband!

Primary season is almost halfway over, and my predictions of Trump fading away turned out to be dead wrong.  I thought for sure his toxic rhetoric would turn away voters.  But primaries tend to favor extremists, as this election clearly illustrates.   A rabid Communist would never have a chance to be elected President, but Sanders made quite a good showing in the Primaries simply because they don't reflect the voices of all Americans but instead just the party faithful.

At the risk of being wrong again, I'll make another prediction:  The next President of the United States will be Hillary Clinton.

Why is this?  Well, despite the enthusiasm of the Sanders supporters, he has yet to move ahead in the delegate count.  At the time of this writing, Hillary is not only about 800 delegates ahead, but she only needs 600 more to cinch the nomination (out of over 2000 remaining).  Sanders needs 1300.   Unless the majority of the remaining States go for Sanders (and he gets an overwhelming majority of the delegates in those States) - the math just isn't there.

This is not being anti-Sanders, just being realistic.  And yes, there is a difference.

And moreover, while Sanders does appeal to young people who think they got a raw deal in life, his message is downright scary to the middle-of-the-road Americans who make up the vast bulk of the electorate.  Sadly, primaries tend to bring out extremism in both parties.  If somehow Sanders did win, we would have the nauseating choice of a Communist versus a Fascist.

Gee, sounds like another country I've heard about, a few years back.   They had a big recession/depression, then things picked up and they got very liberal, and then Communists and Fascists started fighting in the streets and... well, let's hope it doesn't go there.

I noted before that Trump actually does say some smart things once in a while.  Sadly, these are drowned out by the dumb things he also says.   Both Trump and Sanders have the same fundamental flaw - they promise to do things, as President, that would be illegal under the Constitution.   Both say, "If I'm President, I will.... [fill in crazy scheme]" but fail to mention how they will get this past Congress, which actually passes laws, and the Supreme Court which adjudicates them.

Hillary at least appears to have watched a few episodes of "School House Rock" and understands there are three branches of government.   Maybe actually being there makes a difference.  Maybe actually being smart makes a difference.

On the GOP side, Trump is way out in front in terms of delegate count.  But if you add up the "other" delegates for Rubio and Cruz, they nearly equal Trump's.   Problem is, the GOP hates Cruz as much as they did Trump, as his tea-party antics is what got the GOP in hot water in the first place.   The Grand Old Party is really falling apart, but it is really their own fault.  They sought out the radical right-wing evangelical nut-jobs and made them the "core" of the party.   More and more, Mr. and Mrs. Middle-America feel they are being pushed out of the "big tent" and indeed, are often called "RINOS" by these newcomers.  Ironic that the latest addition to the Republican Party is telling everyone else what it means to be Republican.   I wonder what Abe Lincoln would have thought.

The problem for Trump isn't Trump - it is his supporters.   They are basically toxic to the rest of America.  Again, the middle-of-the-road voters will decide this, and supporters will scare them away faster than Sarah Palin did.

On Trump discussion groups, racism and misogyny abounds.  Trump supporters call anyone who disagrees with them "Cucks" which is oddly enough, a slang term for "cuckhold" which give you a real insight into their psyche.   These are the "angry white men" who feel that "their world" has been taken away from them by feminism and minorities as well as immigrants. The term "Cuck" basically is used as a slur against anyone who dares to disagree with them.

They can't use the "N-word" anymore, and they can't even shout "Faggot!" due to Political Correctness, so they have invented this "Cuck" thing to impinge the manhood of anyone who doesn't take this sort of frat-house view of life, where "the Donald" will be elected and kick some Muslim butt, for sure man!   Anyone who thinks otherwise, is a "Cuck".   This is the level of intellectual discourse among Trump supporters, and why he will lose the middle-of-the-road voters.

During the primaries, this sort of extremist behavior is expected and tolerated, to some extent, as it "gets out the faithful" to vote.  But in the general election, Trump is going to have to move to the center and squelch the radical core supporters as he woos the middle-of-the-road vote.

And I frankly don't think this is going to happen.   As I noted before, some friends of mine who were die-hard Bush fans, actually voted for Obama only because McCain nominated Sarah Palin - and they realized that McCain had lost his mind, and what they thought of as core Republican values have radically changed over the years.

The GOP is no longer the party of the country club, but of the trailer park.  It has become the party of religious extremism, bigotry, misogyny, and racism.    It is no longer the party of "big business" but of oddball economic theories like flat taxes and the gold standard - and protectionism.

Perhaps in an odd way, the GOP has gone back to its Whig roots of the post-revolutionary era, where to be a Republican meant to be "for America and the Tariff" - the high protectionist tariffs that were the norm in America until about 50 years ago.  Protectionist Tariffs were the mean of the union-lead Democratic party, until about the same time, when Democrats embraced "free trade" and now the GOP goes back to protectionism.   Politics sure do make strange bedfellows!

I just wonder if the GOP of today would have pushed for 14th amendment back then.  I'm thinking not.  But I digress.

On the flip side, Sanders claims that Hillary is "too conservative" and has too many ties to "Corporate America" and "Wall Street".   But actually, this is more of an endorsement than an indictment.   If Hillary is "conservative" then maybe she represents what used to be the core values of the GOP.   And if she is a little Nixonian, well, so much the better.  Her position on the board of Wal-Mart is a plus to me, not a negative.   She has a better understanding of how a business works than someone who spent his entire working life in elected offices.

Of course, there are hysterical websites and discussion groups that claim all sorts of conspiracy theories about Hillary.  The Clinton "death list" for example is laughable - and easily debunked.  And repeating the word "Benghazi" over and over again (or going to see a movie and thinking that is reality) really isn't saying much of anything.  Whitewater seems to be off the radar now that people realize it was a pretty trivial Real Estate deal that just went bad.   And talk of throwing lamps and whatnot - what is the point of that?  The rest of it, well, it is just made-up Facebook stories about Hillary dishonoring veterans or whatnot - all easily debunked to anyone but the right-wing faithful, who read nothing else.

In my mind, even if you assumed the worst conspiracy theories about Hillary were true, she would still be a better President than Saunders, Cruz, or Trump.   Member of the Illuminati?  Good, she'll get things done with those connections.   Murders her opponents?   Well, that's once way to get Mitch McConnell's attention, I guess.  I would rather have a Machiavellian "bitch" as President than a share-the-wealth Communist or a failed reality-show character or a tea-party nut-job.

But in all seriousness, about 99% of the bullshit you see online about Hillary is just that - bullshit.   The Clintons have been investigated again and again, and so far the only thing we've been able to nail them with is that Bill got a blowjob in the White House.
And you know what?  I don't have a problem with that.   Sex is not an evil thing, and what goes on between consenting adults is their own business.  And the Clinton's marriage is their business.  Their personal lives should never have entered into anything.

Everyone should get blowjobs.  If you haven't had one, I highly recommend them.  It's just sex people.  Get over yourself.  Buncha prudes!  (Bunch of sexually frustrated prudes, is more like it).

And after upteen Benghazi investigations, still there is no smoking gun.   For some reason, the Hillary Haters seem to think that mischaracterizing the nature of the attack in the media somehow altered the outcome of events.  It didn't.     Was it a massive fuck-up that cost people their lives?  Yes.  And the problem was, why the hell did we have an embassy in Libya in the first place?

Yet there folks out there (including movie makers) who will have you believe that Hillary is some bloodthirsty vampire who intentionally allows people to get killed, just for the hell of it.  Or worse, they allege that the Democratic party is somehow aligned with Al Qaeda or ISIS or is sympathetic to their causes - just because Democrats refuse to indict every member of the world's largest religion over the actions of a few (and in terms of percentage, the terrorists are indeed a small percentage - there are a LOT of Muslims in the world.  This does mean, of course, that even a small percentage adds up to a lot of terrorists).
Hey, I get it.  If you read the Koran, there is a lot of shit in there which is violent, homophobic, misogynist, and just plain fucked-up.  Have you read the Bible lately?  The same shit is in there, too, because both religions spring from the same root - Judaism.  (Yet for some reason, both religions hate the Jews - go figure.  Must be daddy issues or something).

So no, I don't think fundamentalist Baptists "have my back" in terms of preserving freedom and liberty in this country.   They want to outlaw Sharia law (which is in no danger of being a "law" anywhere in this country) and then in the same breath declare the USA as a "Christian Nation".

Now, the fun part.  If you believe in conspiracy theories, well there is a whopper of one out there that has been around for months now.  Namely that Bill Clinton persuaded Donald Trump to run in the first place, to insure that Hillary would win.    It is not as far-fetched a theory as you might think.  Trump and Clinton are pretty good friends, and Trump (like Murdoch) has donated money to the Clintons and their causes in the past.  In fact, that is one reason the GOP party leaders don't trust him.

The theory goes that "The Donald" would divide the party (check) and put the GOP in disarray (check).  It was assumed, I think, that Trump would not actually win the nomination, but run as a third party candidate, much as Ross Perot did, which insured Bill Clinton's first White House win.

I think the idea ran off the rails when Trump actually started winning.   Now the GOP is scared, and it could be eight more years before Republicans take back the White House (start grooming reasonable candidates now, Republicans!  Don't let this happen again!).   And maybe Trump is now thinking, "Hey, I could actually win this thing!" and let's face it, he probably needs a government pension at this point.

But his embracing the Culture of Belligerence will backfire.   Voters will not be turned on by people who call them "Cucks" any time they disagree with far-right thinking.  There are a lot of very smart people in this country and that group can and does swing elections.   You can't win from the far-left or the far-right, as has been demonstrated time and time again.   When it comes down to it, Hillary is the center, like it or not.

And if the GOP had only gotten their shit together and put forth a more charismatic "middle of the road" candidate, maybe they wouldn't be in this pickle.  Sadly, both Jeb and Rubio turned out not to be that guy.  And maybe moving to open primaries in the future will prevent the debacle the GOP is facing this time around.


P.S. - one other thing Hillary has going for her - a shitload of money.  More than the Donald has.  And Trump has certainly provided a mountain of quotes for attack ads.  Just play what he said, over and over again, and she will win.

UPDATE:  This article from a former Trump SuperPAC communications director is interesting on two levels.  First, it validates the conspiracy theory that Trump entered the race but didn't intend to win it.   Second, it seems to indicate that Trump was "coordinating" with this SuperPAC, which is illegal and maybe why it was disbanded.

UPDATE:  This Trump Slang Decoder can let you into the "secret world" of Trumpism!  (How mature!  But bear in mind a lot of his "support" online is in discussion groups dominated by high school and college students, many of the former of which cannot even vote)  Meanwhile Trump supporters continue to show themselves as racists and misogynists, pepper-spraying a protester and calling her a "nigger-lover".   Yea, still a lot of that shit in America - but not a majority, though.  Not enough to elect a President, anyway.