Friday, July 18, 2014

OHG! Stock Market Crashes! Maybe not...

Just a brief note.   CNN reports a "major jump in the fear index by 37%!!!"   Of course, their "fear index" is a made-up number that really means nothing (and courtesy of the bureau of specious statistics).

The upshot?  With Israel invading Gaza and an airliner shot down, gold "jumps" 1.5% and the stock market "tanks" by a similar amount.

1.5% is a major shift?   Gold  is still nearly $500 less than historic highs a couple of years back.

But then again, "Minor shift in markets" isn't a headline, is it?  You need to say "FEAR takes over Stock Market!  The Sky is FALLING!" in order to capture eyeballs.

Granted, I think you will see the market retract somewhat after a 5-year bull market tear.  And gold may bounce back due to people overseas buying it (like nervous dictators about to be deposed, or people in China and Russia looking for safe havens).

As for shooting down airliners, look where that got the former Soviet Union.  The shooting down of the Korean Air flight was arguably one of the pivotal moments in the downfall of the USSR.   It certainly didn't help us either, in our relationship with Iran.