Monday, November 20, 2017

What If They Had An Economic Boom And Nobody Came?

How can a consumer-based economy work without consumers?

There is a lot of talk in the press about how great things are going and how even greater they are going to get next year and the year after.   Company after company talks about projected profits and how their sales are expected to rise in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

And the stock market is rewarding them for these projections, which seems to me to be a little bit premature.   We are told that the new tax bill will put more spending money in the hands of the average American, who will go out and buy more and the economy will expand further.   The problem, is, the tax bill largely favors the rich.  As one Senator put it, "My donors called and said to get this done or don't bother calling back!"   It is rich donors driving our government, not the people.

And already our economy is divided further and further in to two groups, the very rich and the very poor.  The middle class is disappearing to large extent.  As I noted in another posting, talk to any boat salesmen - they can sell mega-yachts or rowboats, but nothing in-between.  The days of a young married couple starting out with a 21-foot cuddy cabin and working their way up to a 55-footer are long gone.   Today you either buy big or go home.   There is no room for the middle class.

The working poor and what remains of the middle class (which are two groups that are rapidly combining) are taking on more and more debt and saving less and less.   How exactly are these folks going to benefit from their $700 a year tax cut?  Most would merely apply this money to their staggering debts, or it would merely offset inflation.

Republicans like to say that "a rising tide lifts all boats" but I think it is essential that the smaller boats be lifted first.   One reason marinas and other maritime facilities are shrinking is that there are fewer and fewer middle class people who can afford to own boats.   And while this may make more room for the mega-yachts, the very wealthy should bear in mind that what keeps the marina in business isn't one or two mega-yachts, but boats of all shapes and sizes filling every slip.

And the same is true for our economy.   Sure a tax cut for the very wealthy sounds great - if you are very wealthy.   You take that money and invest it - but in what?   Buy some GM stock - but who is left to buy the cars?   Your investments will tank if no one is left to buy the products that your company makes.  You need all these "little people" to buy cars, cell phones, cable TV, data plans, fast-food meals, consumer loans, and all the other things that American companies offer for sale to consumers.   Without customers, though, it all falls apart.

And I think that message gets lost sometimes.   Many on the right want to cut welfare programs - but not corporate welfare, of course!  But the two are intertwined.   Food stamps and other "government handouts" act as wage subsidies as well as a lifeline or safety net to the underemployed.   You can cut these programs, but it doesn't necessarily mean than the folks relying on them will spontaneously go out and get higher paying jobs.   They might just end up destitute - and spending money on nothing but basic sustenance.

The very wealthy also (should) realize that keeping "the masses" content is an act of self-interest.   When people become poor and destitute, they are more likely to riot and act out their aggression on the upper classes - and no amount of policing can keep that in check.

There is a lot of talk as to why crime rates have dropped dramatically since the 1960's.  An aging population, sentencing guidelines, and the war on drugs, are all offered as possible causes.   But a growing economy and greater economic security are also cited as reasons why people are less likely to engage in crime today than in decades past.

I don't know.  I just don't see it.   All this happy-talk about how the economy is going to take off like a rocket, when already we've been experiencing the greatest postwar bull market.   How much further can the market go?   These things go in cycles.   And I am not sure that a lot of folks feel that economically secure that they want to go out and spend and consume even more.

And without consumers, how can a consumer economy grow?